Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

There are different opinions on the top 10 or top 30 from "professionals" such as the Stride Report and Flotrack.....From what I can tell from last year, the Wood report is no better, no worse than other predictors in aggregate....some hits, some misses. Last year I believe in a pre Nats prediction he had 3 BYU runners in top 10 (and BYU winning)......only Orton made top 10 and the 3rd runner finished 38th. I don't mean to pick on him, but noone is perfect, or even close to perfect. But no, not "every runner who is a serious distance runner and a serious threat in cross country" is going to try to lay down a fast 5k.....people recover from injuries, focus on 1500 or steeple...etc. Larkin and Van Camp beat 4 NC St runners in 5K yet are ranked lower than all 4?

Ryan Smeeton ran 8:20 in the steeple finishing 4th in the NCAA. He has been a national class distance runner for 6 years but has never run a 5k.

Looks like McCabe finished 3rd at NCAA XC but doesn't have a 5k.

Bro you make a post and you call me delusional but then when I give you evidence that you're talking nonsense you try to play the manners card

Bottom line NC state has six really strong distance runners... There's no guarantees but it's certainly possible any of those six could be top 15!

Yeah I'm sure there's a ton of juco transfers and division 2 transfers that are sub 1534 5K runners... That happens every year!

And there's no way that this guy who devotes a website to figuring the stuff out would be able to know about any good incoming runners!

Also I bet some serious money NC State puts five in the top 30

In fact if you give me odds I will put up to 5 grand on it

Since you're so sure it won't happen how about giving me two to one odds

Dude you're literally prove me right for labeling your posts

I said almost every runner that is a top cross country runner tries to run a fast5k! So you pick the one out of the top 20 xc runners that doesn't!

Look at the women's top 10 cross country runners from any season I guarantee almost always at least seven and if not as many as 8 or 9 have a fast 5k

Orton, mercy, chemiel, Nichols, tuohy, denner, logue, roe all fast 5ks

Yeah occasionally there's a few runners who just specialize in the steeplechase for track season or just run up to the 3K

that's the definition of illogical it's someone who takes things out of context and misses the obvious points for obscure details

Out of the top 10 cross country finishers from 2021 9 have sub 1535 5Ks

McCabe who is a steeplechase specialist is the only one who doesn't

Those nine 5Ks are the fastest 5Ks in the country from the previous years... Outside of potentially a couple of runners literally one or two!!!

It's exactly why your posts are moronic because you're either intentionally trolling or unable to see the obvious!!!

You seem to be pretty triggered and unhinged. Frankie says just chill out and have a civilized discussion 😎

NAME YEAR TEAM Avg. Mile TIME SCORE
1 Whittni Orton SR-4 BYU 05:12.5 19:25.4 1
2 Mercy Chelangat JR-3 Alabama 05:13.6 19:29.3 2
3 Ceili McCabe SO-2 West Virginia 05:13.7 19:29.5 3
4 Cailie Logue SR-4 Iowa State 05:13.7 19:29.8 4
5 Taylor Roe JR-3 Oklahoma State 05:14.7 19:33.5 5
6 Kelsey Chmiel SO-2 NC State 05:15.0 19:34.6 6
7 Bethany Hasz SR-4 Minnesota 05:15.5 19:36.4 7
8 Abby Nichols SR-4 Colorado 05:15.8 19:37.6 8
9 Maddy Denner SO-2 Notre Dame 05:15.9 19:37.7 9

Frankie does say "relax"!

Those are the top finishers from 2021

If you go through their 5K times you literally see an ALMOST straight progression of order of finish and personal bests REPEAT ALMOST

Orton 1514

Mercy 1517

Roe 1525

Chmiel 1527

Etc...

There's a few outliers logue is only a 1540 runner while denner is 1525... hasz 1535 I think

But the basic point is there's a strong correlation between 5K track times and cross country performance

I just read through this thread. Is there any chance that ezrun is semihaze? Semihase seems to be MIA and both seem to have the same level of obsession with the NC State women...

I read through it too. Seems like the guys talking sense and people are making moronic rebuttals that are completely idiotic. And then trying to act above it all when he calls them out and remarks that they're kind of being dopey. And then ask to not use insults while insulting the guy

Ahh you're all a bunch of bozos! But Tuohy and NC State will Dominate!

Do you realize the first time Taylor Roe ran a 5,000 was this past Spring ie after she had finished 2nd, then 5th in NCAA XC? Prior 5,000 times can be a guide, but there are more potential top finishers than just that. And people improve, for example, Tuohy and Valby who have now run 15:15 and 15:20 but only finished 15th and 27th last year. 5 NC St in top 10 seems way out there to me.

Are you purposely trying to misunderstand what the guy says? I mean I've been reading through and it's kind of obvious he's just saying that it's a bit of an indicator of potential? Anyway I can see why he's getting PO'd because your nitpicking every little detail and missing the obvious truth

I was going to wait till after NC State drops the hammer in a couple of there early meets but I'll just go on record now saying tuohy will win. And NC State will Put 5 in the top 20 and score under 50!

Almost 20 of the top 40 from last year aren't returning! The competition is a lot weaker. And I don't see a whole lot of strength from incoming freshman class. Runners who finished in the twenties and 30s and even 40s last year will have a good chance to push down below 20. And maybe even top 10