Natalie Cook runs 15-20mpw and yet she will be going for Katelyn Tuohy's 15:37 US HS record this weekend

3 Points To Ponder Regarding This Topic

1) Seems many of her believers are repeating the things they said about German Fernandez a decade or more ago. Oh wow, he's is doing it (running fast times in HS) on such little mileage. Just wait til he gets to college and pros and increases his mileage .... he'll be unbeatable. That didn't turn out so well. Lots of injuries and eventual leaving the sport. Sometimes low mileage is a sign of being fragile and doesn't bode well for their longer term future.

2) Many people count mileage differently. Even among elites. Peter Coe reported that Seb only ran 60-65 miles a week but after his retirement Seb confirmed he was in the 80-90 range consistently but Peter didn't count warm-up and cool-down miles recovery jogs or slow secondary runs, as he didn't consider them of enough quality to merit counting. Peter counted 60-65 while Seb counted 80+.

3) I coached 2 women to the same marathon time (~2:45) within 1 month of each other, both with 16 weeks build-ups. One did it on 45-50 miles per week training and the other was at 100-105 miles per week. The lower mileage runner was closer to her personal limit than the higher mileage one was in my opinion. They were just very different runners who needed very different approaches to get to the same place.

You are incorrect. You are wrongly assuming that I predicted your list of runners to improve. You are wrongly assuming that top coaches gave big scholarships to girls that didn't improve. Listing some girls who didn't improve does make your point. Itmakes my point that good coaches are good at spotting talent. There are more than 1000 distance coaches across the college divisions but there are a small number who have consistent success.

Yet the regular ladies powers seem to stockpile the top recruits, while the mystery low mileage late bloomers generally appear at second tier programs.

Coburn - Colorado. Hocker - Oregon. Cook - Ok State. Knight - Syracuse.

Hocker, Cook and Knight (Canada) were high school stars going to top programs. I know less about Coburn, but think she was in state to CU.

I was thinking Purrier, Houlihan, Tynismmaa, Schweizer

Even Coburn was a high school star, 2nd Nike Outdoor Nat in steeple.

What is your point exactly? They were low mileage stars who went to top programs and went on to greatness. Cook is similar.

more is on wrote:

good coaches are good at spotting talent. There are more than 1000 distance coaches across the college divisions but there are a SMALL NUMBER who have consistent success.

Well, you changed your mind pretty quickly. You are now claiming that a "SMALL NUMBER" of college coaches can predict a high school girl's potential in college. But just an hour ago you said that "MOST" college coaches can do that.

Your previous post said:

"I have probably been about 90% over the past 20 years

predicting girls potential in college. MOST coaches can

or they woukd stop giving out scholarships to freshmen."

Make up your mind. Can MOST college coaches predict a girl's potential in college? Or only a SMALL number of coaches can do that?

And since you are 90% correct in predicting which high school girls will do really well in college, out of the 40 girls at the most recent Eastbay national cross country championships which 5 girls will do the best in college?

Both are true. You missed that one statement focused on scholarships which only about 1/2 of NCAA schools provide and some of those schools provide no distance scholarships. D3, no scholarships. Many D2 schools and mid majors, no scholarships or very few. You failed to notice that I pointed out that there are more than 1000 distance coaches. The other statement pertained to the granting of scholarships. Most of those coaches can spot talent or they would stop giving out scholarships to freshmen. I guess some Letsrun posters know better than coaches at BYU or NC State though. No idea if girls will be good or bad in college so those incompetent coaches should stop spending time recruiting and granting scholarships because it is a total crap shoot. Tuohy? So you had no idea that she would be good in college?

You said "only a small group of good coaches can spot the low mileage talent" and then cite Hocker - FL champ, Cook - FL champ, Knight - 8:15 3k, Ontario Xc champ and Coburn - Nike 2nd place steeple.

Fact is every coach and fan can spot this talent. For success the coach has to get them to choose their school over all the other offers. So recruiting is the skill, not identifying a hidden talent, then as the other posters said, you have to hope they deliver.

Is it easy to know which girls will be the best women? Some posters were claiming that it is very difficult to predict. Is Hutchins going to be the top college runner in a year or two? How about Cook?

Or to your NC State point, the genius coaches scoured the land and used their talent spotting skills to discover Starliper and Touhy. Then roll the dice and one works out and the other is injured.

Not talent spotting, it's recruit stars, and hope they deliver.

FastTuohy wrote:

Is it verified she is running a 5,000 this weekend?  Not shown at UW or BU to the best of my knowledge.

"Initial reports had the Flower Mound (TX) High School senior, who was named last week as Gatorade's National Player of the Year in cross country, going to Seattle, Washington, where she was looking to enter in a collegiate 5K field and chase after the high school national record.

But in recent days, Cook's father, Andrew, who is also her high school coach, changed plans and instead has Cook opening on Feb. 24 in Flower Mound. She will then follow with efforts in the 4xmile and 2-mile at New Balance Nationals Indoor."

I. Rex wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

Is it verified she is running a 5,000 this weekend?  Not shown at UW or BU to the best of my knowledge.

https://www.milesplit.com/articles/309487/natalie-cook-has-sights-set-on-season-opener-nbni

"Initial reports had the Flower Mound (TX) High School senior, who was named last week as Gatorade's National Player of the Year in cross country, going to Seattle, Washington, where she was looking to enter in a collegiate 5K field and chase after the high school national record.

But in recent days, Cook's father, Andrew, who is also her high school coach, changed plans and instead has Cook opening on Feb. 24 in Flower Mound. She will then follow with efforts in the 4xmile and 2-mile at New Balance Nationals Indoor."

Tough to get a national indoor record on a track that does not count.

cherry.picker wrote:

I. Rex wrote:

https://www.milesplit.com/articles/309487/natalie-cook-has-sights-set-on-season-opener-nbni

"Initial reports had the Flower Mound (TX) High School senior, who was named last week as Gatorade's National Player of the Year in cross country, going to Seattle, Washington, where she was looking to enter in a collegiate 5K field and chase after the high school national record.

But in recent days, Cook's father, Andrew, who is also her high school coach, changed plans and instead has Cook opening on Feb. 24 in Flower Mound. She will then follow with efforts in the 4xmile and 2-mile at New Balance Nationals Indoor."

Tough to get a national indoor record on a track that does not count.

It's also tough to break the 5K record if you don't run a 5K. I would have liked to see Cook try to run faster than Tuohy's 5K record, even if it didn't count officially because of the oversize track.

Thanks - I looked at entries a few times and she never showed up.  So, it sounds like no 5,000 this Indoor season?