Master of LolIy wrote:
Mu is more like Juantorena (400m - 44.26, 800m - 1:43.50, 1500m - 3:45.5).
Juantorena used to be a 400m runner, then moved up to 800m for Montreal Olympic Games, where he won gold in both the 800m and 400m.
Mu most likely would have placed 2nd in 400m in Japan.
Agree. Or another example Marcel Fiasconaro, who set a World Indoor Record for 400m and won a European Silver Medal in that event, and set a World Record of 1:43.7 over 800m.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I can imagine Mu running 4:05ish after a couple years of pro training, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would bet confidently that she will never be capable of making the 1500 final at a global championship.
Couple years? Anybody who can run a 4:17 pace while finishing with a 30 last 200 (Mu has already done that) can run 4:05 RIGHT NOW. I think there is only a handful of woman that are capable of that and Mu did it in an indoor track meet in January! Saying she is only capable of 4: 16 Is like saying someone who just did a 3 × mile workout in 4:39, 4:40, 4:40 is only in 4:39 shape.
MU looks nothing like any world class 400 runner, 800 runner or 1500 runner. She is a unicorn. She is a bigger freak than the Greek Freak. I think this is fact most of you seemingly don't or refuse to understand.
hihihi wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I can imagine Mu running 4:05ish after a couple years of pro training, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would bet confidently that she will never be capable of making the 1500 final at a global championship.
Couple years? Anybody who can run a 4:17 pace while finishing with a 30 last 200 (Mu has already done that) can run 4:05 RIGHT NOW. I think there is only a handful of woman that are capable of that and Mu did it in an indoor track meet in January! Saying she is only capable of 4: 16 Is like saying someone who just did a 3 × mile workout in 4:39, 4:40, 4:40 is only in 4:39 shape.
MU looks nothing like any world class 400 runner, 800 runner or 1500 runner. She is a unicorn. She is a bigger freak than the Greek Freak. I think this is fact most of you seemingly don't or refuse to understand.
If she could run 4:05 right now she has a funny way of showing it. Maybe she could do 4:10-4:12 now. Maybe.
hihihi wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I can imagine Mu running 4:05ish after a couple years of pro training, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would bet confidently that she will never be capable of making the 1500 final at a global championship.
Couple years? Anybody who can run a 4:17 pace while finishing with a 30 last 200 (Mu has already done that) can run 4:05 RIGHT NOW. I think there is only a handful of woman that are capable of that and Mu did it in an indoor track meet in January! Saying she is only capable of 4: 16 Is like saying someone who just did a 3 × mile workout in 4:39, 4:40, 4:40 is only in 4:39 shape.
MU looks nothing like any world class 400 runner, 800 runner or 1500 runner. She is a unicorn. She is a bigger freak than the Greek Freak. I think this is fact most of you seemingly don't or refuse to understand.
Fantasy, not fact.
hihihi wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
I can imagine Mu running 4:05ish after a couple years of pro training, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would bet confidently that she will never be capable of making the 1500 final at a global championship.
Couple years? Anybody who can run a 4:17 pace while finishing with a 30 last 200 (Mu has already done that) can run 4:05 RIGHT NOW. I think there is only a handful of woman that are capable of that and Mu did it in an indoor track meet in January! Saying she is only capable of 4: 16 Is like saying someone who just did a 3 × mile workout in 4:39, 4:40, 4:40 is only in 4:39 shape.
MU looks nothing like any world class 400 runner, 800 runner or 1500 runner. She is a unicorn. She is a bigger freak than the Greek Freak. I think this is fact most of you seemingly don't or refuse to understand.
Tried to think of slow pro races in recent memory, to see what kind of kicks top athletes have off of slow pace to compare to Mu's 30s close to a 4:17 equivalent. 4:00-4:05 pros can close in 29-32 in a 4:10 race as a rust buster.
Best comparison off the top of my head would be 2021 Trials of Miles in Houston as it was an early, rust buster kinda race (February) that went out slow but closed fast, featuring solid domestic US talent and an Olympic top 5. Field including G DeBues-Stafford, Corey McGee, Shannon Osika, Sinclaire Johnson, Nikki Hiltz. GDS closed in a 29 last 200 to win in 4:10. Johnson and Osika behind her closed in 30 mid, McGee in a 31 mid.
In other words, they were able to close just as fast (or faster in GDS' case) while jockeying for position in a faster paced race. At the time, none of those athletes looked super sharp. Johnson didn't break 4:05 all 2021 for example.
I think Mu could go sub 4:10 in an even race right now, but even the gap from 4:10 to 4:05 is a chasm.
Re: OP's bold claim about Mu's global champs potential/beating the US 1500m record potential, let's look again at the winner of that Texas meet. Stafford front ran the heats in Tokyo, winning heat 1 in 4:03.70. Her last 400m was a 59.1, 44.0 300m, and a 29.3 last 200m. In the final she was 5th, a good ways back from 3rd and was no way near threatening Houlihan's North American record. Put another way, the gap in the 1500/mile between Mu and a great but not medal tier 1500m runner like Stafford is huge, and yet there is still a gap between Stafford and 3:54 kind of shape.
The way better, and more intriguing question to me, is could Mu win triple gold - 400, 800, and 4x800?
another perspective wrote:
hihihi wrote:
Couple years? Anybody who can run a 4:17 pace while finishing with a 30 last 200 (Mu has already done that) can run 4:05 RIGHT NOW. I think there is only a handful of woman that are capable of that and Mu did it in an indoor track meet in January! Saying she is only capable of 4: 16 Is like saying someone who just did a 3 × mile workout in 4:39, 4:40, 4:40 is only in 4:39 shape.
MU looks nothing like any world class 400 runner, 800 runner or 1500 runner. She is a unicorn. She is a bigger freak than the Greek Freak. I think this is fact most of you seemingly don't or refuse to understand.
Tried to think of slow pro races in recent memory, to see what kind of kicks top athletes have off of slow pace to compare to Mu's 30s close to a 4:17 equivalent. 4:00-4:05 pros can close in 29-32 in a 4:10 race as a rust buster.
Best comparison off the top of my head would be 2021 Trials of Miles in Houston as it was an early, rust buster kinda race (February) that went out slow but closed fast, featuring solid domestic US talent and an Olympic top 5. Field including G DeBues-Stafford, Corey McGee, Shannon Osika, Sinclaire Johnson, Nikki Hiltz. GDS closed in a 29 last 200 to win in 4:10. Johnson and Osika behind her closed in 30 mid, McGee in a 31 mid.
In other words, they were able to close just as fast (or faster in GDS' case) while jockeying for position in a faster paced race. At the time, none of those athletes looked super sharp. Johnson didn't break 4:05 all 2021 for example.
I think Mu could go sub 4:10 in an even race right now, but even the gap from 4:10 to 4:05 is a chasm.
Re: OP's bold claim about Mu's global champs potential/beating the US 1500m record potential, let's look again at the winner of that Texas meet. Stafford front ran the heats in Tokyo, winning heat 1 in 4:03.70. Her last 400m was a 59.1, 44.0 300m, and a 29.3 last 200m. In the final she was 5th, a good ways back from 3rd and was no way near threatening Houlihan's North American record. Put another way, the gap in the 1500/mile between Mu and a great but not medal tier 1500m runner like Stafford is huge, and yet there is still a gap between Stafford and 3:54 kind of shape.
The way better, and more intriguing question to me, is could Mu win triple gold - 400, 800, and 4x800?
4x400m** I meant at the end.
another perspective wrote:
The way better, and more intriguing question to me, is could Mu win triple gold - 400, 800, and 4x400?
She can. But only with Miller-Uibo absent.
What makes o p argument crazy is not only the way he phrased it. But also the fact that mu was never any good at 1500m. She was a 433 runner in high school for a whole career... and now for 2 years straight has maxed out at about a 4:17
Endurance has never been her strong suit. In high school her best distance was really 600m. Which isn't a bad thing it makes for a great 400-800 combo. But the 1500 is it different Beast altogether. She would have to up her miles a lot....
And who knows if she would at the end of the day she would be even a top 5 American, never mind a top 10 in the world. Maybe she just doesn't have the makeup for 1500m Runner.
Someone mentioned Mo Farah as a good counterexample. The guy still has a great 1500m time, and he had great closing speed. What does that mean he could have been a top 800m runner in Britain and been setting records with ease. Probably not,
I think you'll be more interesting to see whether she would be a better 200-meter Runner than a 1500m runner. Not sure she would be winning medals in either one but 200 would probably be an easier transition. Anyway Mo Farah at 800? Or athing Mew at 1500? Who would have better Olympic potential?
Whether she wants to or not might depend on how Paris plays out. We can expect the Brits to get faster, not slower, and if one of them makes a leap and takes 800 gold in 2024, I'd think Mu would be less focused on hanging with Purrier St. Pierre and the 20+ Americans who can run under 4:05 comfortably. If she decides to give the 1500 a proper whirl, it could be part of an 800/1500 double attempt in 2027 (at the earliest), and only if she can throw down a sub-4 well before the WC. How does she get there? With her current training setup? Tricky, but if she's fully bought in to the process and can handle the extra mileage, maybe Rowberry or Razcko (or Rojo?) can get it done.
Usually she loses because she dies rather than getting out kicked. She's much better off trying to become a 200 400 Runner than a 800 1500m Runner.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Man, this thread is a frustrating read.
For one, claiming Semenya wasn’t “world class” at 1500 when she won a World Championship bronze at that distance is preposterous. Her 49.62 400 PB would have been good for bronze at the Rio Olympics—she was world class at both distances. However, I don’t think you can necessarily make a fair comparison with Mu for obvious physiological reasons.
Citing the teenage 1500 PBs of various fast 1500 runners as evidence that Mu, with a similar 1500 PB, is capable of becoming a top 1500 runner in the future is ignoring a major confounding variable: none of those women were 49”/1:55 runners! Athletes have individual skillsets and physical limitations, and the same traits that make someone elite at one distance will limit their potential at a longer or shorter one.
One former great with a similar skillset to Mu is Ana Fidelia Quirot of Cuba. Quirot ran 49.2h/1:22.6/1:54.4/2:33.1/4:13.1 PBs—clearly she was best in the 600-800 range, and Mu is the same. Another woman who came to my mind is former US record-holder at 800, Jearl Miles-Clark; Clark had less strength than Mu, recording lifetime bests of 49.4/1:56.4 and only 4:31.4 for 1500.
Bad Wigins actually provided some sense when he mentioned that Kazankina is the only woman to ever run 1:55.05 or faster and sub-3:55; but of course, Kazankina was not a world class 400 runner, but an 800-3k+ type like Ovett or Cram—or think of her as Shelby Houlihan with a little less mileage and training knowledge, but far less scrutiny on her drug regimen. There’s no comparing Mu and Kazankina, even if their current 800 PBs are very close.
The men who have similar skillsets as Mu—Rudisha, Emmanuel Korir, Amos, Saruni—have never recorded faster than 3:44 for 1500 (and it sounds as if Juantorena fell in that range as well).
I can imagine Mu running 4:05ish after a couple years of pro training, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I would bet confidently that she will never be capable of making the 1500 final at a global championship.
I stand corrected, clearly, a bronze medal at the world championships demonstrates that Semenya was world-class at the 1500m. Mostly sitting-and-kicking off of slow paces, she never ran a world-class time, but she was surely capable of faster (her PB would rank her 15th in the world last year - in my book world-class means top 8 in the world).
The above is post is a great analysis and I agree with it regarding Mu.
To say world class is top 8 is pretty limiting.. I think most people would mean top 20 or 25. I mean it can mean whatever you want it to mean but if your top 15 or 25 you at least have a chance to make an Olympic final. Depending on the event and how many are in the final. It's tough to deny someone is world-class if they are in an olympic final.
OP keeps posting anonymously under different names to try to keep the conversation going but most people I responded right away by saying his argument made no sense
Top 25 to 50 makes u world class... semenya was Def world class at 1500m. She was meddling in the diamond league for god sakes...
Bob Loblaw of Long Hair Lawncare wrote:
Doubtful. Why didn’t Jeremy Wariner break the AR in the 800?
These boards are obsessed with moving everyone up in distance…
Kind of agree. Her form is, what I have said many times, absolutely fluid. Watching that 1500 reminded me that I have seen very few successful middle or long distance runners who appeared so comfortable, effortless, and smooth. When I just happened on that race on Utube at first I thought I was watching a 5 or 10k, because the lead runner was so far ahead and apparently coasting!! Maybe I'm seeing slow but her stride is perfect.
This sounds similar to what many here have been saying about Brazier. A low mileage 400/800 phenom who could be incredible at the 1500 if he ever ramped the mileage and took it seriously.
distance obsession wrote:
Bob Loblaw of Long Hair Lawncare wrote:
Doubtful. Why didn’t Jeremy Wariner break the AR in the 800?
These boards are obsessed with moving everyone up in distance…
Yes, they think all it will take is "the right training". There's good reason why runners compete over the distances they do - and don't strive to satisfy the fantasists here.
Stopwatcher wrote:
To say world class is top 8 is pretty limiting.. I think most people would mean top 20 or 25. I mean it can mean whatever you want it to mean but if your top 15 or 25 you at least have a chance to make an Olympic final. Depending on the event and how many are in the final. It's tough to deny someone is world-class if they are in an olympic final.
OP keeps posting anonymously under different names to try to keep the conversation going but most people I responded right away by saying his argument made no sense
My rationale for top 8, is that 8 are always guaranteed to make the final in every event. Sure in the 1500m, 12 would make more sense, as 12 make the final in that event. Semenya's time is still not top 12, although, I do admit that she probably would have made the Olympic final if she were allowed to compete, given the new shoes and her kick. And she is clearly world-class based on her 1500 WC bronze, and also her commonwealth gold.
I also agree with you that the American record, without a better 1500m performance under her belt, is unlikely for Mu. Even if SH loses her record due to doping, and it increases to Rowbury's 3:56, that is pretty far out of reach.
The only reason Semenya ran 3:59.9 is that she trained like a distance runner when she was banned from the 800m. She would never have run anything close to that time doing 800m specific training. If Mu could focus on distance events, I think she, like Semenya, could sneak under 4. But Mu will never have a compelling reason to train for an event where she has to excel just to make it to a WC/Olympic final, when she can win easily in the 400m or 800m. Semenya hates the 1500m, and wouldn't have done it either if she could have stayed in the 800m. I think it's more likely Mu focuses on the 400m next.
JO Coach wrote:
This sounds similar to what many here have been saying about Brazier. A low mileage 400/800 phenom who could be incredible at the 1500 if he ever ramped the mileage and took it seriously.
It's quite different. Brazier ran a 3:35.85 with a huge 8-second negative split. That would be like Mu running a 4:00 - 4:01. She is 15 seconds slower than that shape at the moment, based on her 1500m race results.