OozmaKappa wrote:
The delusional Yakob fans have jumped the shark. How long is it going to take for you fanboys to realize the middle distance talent pool isnt of a caliber to threaten any world record? How many more enbarassing wr predictions is it gonna take for you to realize this?
When I read your posts I wonder how on earth you fuel this obsession with fans of Jakob I. What a thing to dedicate so much time to.
Master of LolIy wrote:
LOL. Being able to turn on a world class finishing gear is holding him back? Tell it to McSweyn. Btw, the only person in 1500m who had a better 200m kick was Coe.
Hocker is 100% gonna be the reason for Ingebrigtsen to move up to 5000m, since he will not be in the mood to run 3:29 every damn time in order to win and anything slower than that will result in getting outkicked.
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You are delusional. Why would it bother Ingebrigtsen (and Tim) to run a meager 3:29? Lol. Hocker will have 0% influence over Jakobs career. Even OozmaKappa will agree.
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
OozmaKappa wrote:
1. Better milers have never split a 100 that fast because they have better pacing. Cocker's final 400 splits arent even that fast compared to his contemporaries, you have to take 100 splits in slowass races to make the argument that Hocker closes historically fast. Realize that talking about 100 splits in the 1500 is as stupid as a sprinter bragging about sprinting the last 300m in a 5k faster than anyone else but still losing. Even if you had won, leaving that much for the end is ovjectively bad pacing.
2. Clearly it is bad pacing to anyone that knows anything about running or has any common sense. But I'll put it this way, either it's bad pacing and he can run faster than 3:31, or youre right and it's not bad pacing which means he cant run any better than his current pb. You cant have it both ways. You cant both claim that Hocker is faster than his current pb and also deny that the one thing holding him back isnt a factor.
3. I dont care about the Olympics. Your Olympics-centric view of the sport is stupid and youre wrong about the Steeple and the 400m. I'm talking about who is competing, period. But even if we go by just who was in Tokyo, the Steeple is still more competitive. Chepkoech went in with a pb rated above 1260 and the 3 medalists set PBs rated higher than Hodgkinsons. In the 400, Paulino is just as inpressive as Hodgkinson, the only difference is that Miller-Uibo is of a far higher caliber than Mu currently is. There is no way you can argue the 400 is less competitive. If I wanted to I could even use your lame excuse about men competing in the 400 displacing women.
4. Crushing a weak field doesnt mean anything. Medium fish, small pond. I already broke down the numbers to explain why the 800 is not competitive, you want me to do it again?
You are a good troll, I'll give you that.
1. 3:35s are not slow championship races historically, but you probably don't know that. Your pacing stuff is the gobblygook of a fool. This is an athlete who basically won or advanced easily in every championship 1500, mile or 3,000 that was prioritized for him since NCAA indoors. Hocker's tactics were sub-optimal at USAs in the final but pretty optimal everywhere else. They allowed him to have significant margins of victory, and take no chances in qualifying at the Olympics. Again, Josh Kerr couldn't match this and he won bronze and was 3rd in the Olympics. Numerous athletes with 3:29-3:30 PBs couldn't either.
2. At the end of an exceedingly long season at a few days past his 20th birthday he maxed out at 3:31.40 in a very well-paced, even race. He is not held back by his pacing or finish, he is held back by his overall fitness. He's not a 3:28-29 guy just yet, but he can look to get there. In slower races, he's already got the skills to compete above his level, which is why in the tactical rounds he made it more easily through than many athletes with better overall fitness but worth tactical abilities/closing speed.
3. The sport is about the Olympics and the Worlds. Unsure if you are being serious. Who cares about Chepkoech's PB when she was a shell of herself in Tokyo? The Steeple field had 3 athletes medal who would get gapped by an athlete not in Tokyo and an in-form Chepkoech. Paulino is a good athlete (though suspicious), either way Mu basically solo-ing to a clear victory is plenty strong. Please find examples of women solo-ing 800m finals in 57.8/57.4 and losing. You won't.
4. Mu is already 17th on the all-time list and most of the women above are DSD or Soviet-era doped to the gills. Not sure what you're looking for unless you can identify a woman who doesn't fit those two categories that would give Mu a real race
1. Josh Kerr had better pacing and it rewarded him with a bronze. You just proved my point. Moving on.
2. Ok at least youre not one of those delusional fans who believe Hocker is 2 seconds faster than hes proven to be. Though he is obviously faster than 3:31.4 with proper pacing.
3. No, I don't care about artificially scarce events marketed to casuals any more than I care about our sport as a whole. Your point regarding the steeple is stupid because an ahlete of Mu's caliber in the steeple (e.g., Frerichs) would also get gapped by the same women. Are you not paying attention to any of the numbers I gave you?
4. Ah, the classic "everyone ranked higher is doped and my favorite mediocre athlete is the best honest runner". If youve been here long enough youve seen that every womens event is tainted by doping allegations so your crying about it being a special case in the 800 wont do you any good.
NORman12 wrote:
Master of LolIy wrote:
LOL. Being able to turn on a world class finishing gear is holding him back? Tell it to McSweyn. Btw, the only person in 1500m who had a better 200m kick was Coe.
Hocker is 100% gonna be the reason for Ingebrigtsen to move up to 5000m, since he will not be in the mood to run 3:29 every damn time in order to win and anything slower than that will result in getting outkicked.
You are delusional. Why would it bother Ingebrigtsen (and Tim) to run a meager 3:29? Lol. Hocker will have 0% influence over Jakobs career. Even OozmaKappa will agree.[/quote]
Hocker fans are a different breed. Delusional americans.
1. Better fitness, not pacing. How dense are you? Josh Kerr who was in 3:29 shape nearly got bounced in the first rd due to crappy tactics and his lack of turn of speed at the finish of races. Athletes in 3:30 shape also got bounced in the semis due to their tactics/lack of turn of gears.
2. He ran a maximal race for 3:31.4. 3 races in 4 days isn’t perfect for a PB. Nor is a super long season or being age 20 and a month. So his potential to improve is good.
3. Frerichs is 13 seconds off a WR not sent by a steroid freak like the one Mu is chasing. It’s also a new event with limited history.
Worlds/Olympics are the meets that matter you are not some great track fan because you dumbly discount them. Raevyn Rogers is much more comparable to Frerichs than Mu.
4. They’re women in the Soviet program who looked like men. Little different than Beatrice Chepkoech.
3.26 was produced in an era when there was no test for EPO. That is why no one will get near it today - unless they are prepared to take the risk that Kiprop did (and paid for).
Clay wrote:
objectiveobserver wrote:
Can you provide a source for Gjert´s statement or is it just something you heard in the town?
This is wrong.
Both Gjert and Jakob expect him to peak around age 24-25, so several more seasons.
https://www.aftenposten.no/sport/i/lEAk6L/jakob-ingebrigtsen-tror-han-vil-naa-toppen-om-fem-aar-toppidrett-er-i
Thanks for the link Clay. I was pretty sure the above citation by Baller33 was wrong!
NORman12 wrote:
You are delusional. Why would it bother Ingebrigtsen (and Tim) to run a meager 3:29? Lol. Hocker will have 0% influence over Jakobs career. Even OozmaKappa will agree.
Meager 3:29? Jakob only has run 3 times under 3:30.
3:29 is a maximum effort for Ingebrigtsen, achievable ONLY with great pacing. As soon as Jakob will end up in a race with no optimal pacing and Hocker, this is it. Will happen this year already, mark my words.
OozmaKappa wrote:
Hocker fans are a different breed. Delusional americans.
I'm European. But gotta give credit, where due. Either Jakob moves permanently to 5k or he will eventually lose to Hocker (and Kerr). Can't expect Cheruiyot to always pace for 3:29 to shake these guys off.
Master Of Lolly wrote:
OozmaKappa wrote:
Hocker fans are a different breed. Delusional americans.
I'm European. But gotta give credit, where due. Either Jakob moves permanently to 5k or he will eventually lose to Hocker (and Kerr). Can't expect Cheruiyot to always pace for 3:29 to shake these guys off.
Jakob might only lose to Hocker in a jog (like the Rio final). I doubt he would run that kind of race with fast-finishers in the field.
Peach Pit wrote:
I think Cheruiyot was in 3:26 shape in 2020 during his Monaco run. He ran like a 52 opening lap and held on to win in 3:28. I don't think he was in that shape in 2021, but I can see him getting back there this year if all goes well for him.
As for Jakob, I'm 50/50 on it. He's run 3:28 two years in a row now, and his 3:28 in the Olympics was surely a better effort than his 3:28 in Monaco, but I can see him just as easily running 3:27 this year as 3:26. Of course, if he runs 3:30 or faster in his season opener in a few weeks, I'll probably be leaning towards 3:26.
Cheruiyot went through 400m in 53.1 and then the pace slowed down to 58.6 (1:51.7 at 800m) for 2nd lap. He was also drafted completely for both those laps. Not ideal, I grant you, 55.5, 56.0 would have probably have enabled him to run 3:27.5 that night rather than 3:28.5. But you also have to take into consideration (for historical comparisons) that Monaco is consistently a faster track than pretty much any other and the super spikes were already in use by then. If you put him on a track from 99 with spikes from that period, I doubt he goes any faster than 3:29 flat in ideal conditions. Cheruiyot and Jakob are certainly not capable of matching El G (albeit almost certainly aided with EPO) from the late 90's and running 3:26 without ever faster tracks and super shoes.
objectiveobserver wrote:
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Both have 3:27 ability in a near-perfect race. 3:26 might require absolute perfection with the pacing and the all-important segment from 900-1300. Jakob is likely to let Tim drive the action there so is he willing to sacrifice some chance of winning when he can hold something in reserve?
Both Tim and Jakob could have run around one second faster in Tokyo if they had been able to go directly to the front starting from the outer lanes as they do in Monaco. And with good pacemaking. So at least Jakob was already in 3:27 shape last season.
Really!?
The pacing in the Olympic final was about as perfect as any 1500m could be without light pacing!
Ingebrigtsen's splits were - 56.1, 55.9, 55.4, 40.9 (54.6). The first 3 laps had a difference in range of just 0.7secs. Incredibly efficient pacing.
Then factor in the 'super spikes' which probably improve times by 1% (2 secs in a 3:28) and the fact that the engineer of the track surface said it improves times by between 1 - 2%. I don't think there is any room for enhancing that performance, as impressive as it was, any more. It had perfect (near) pace, fastest track ever (see Warholm's silly run) and revolutionary spikes that observers and athletes alike unanimously agree makes times faster.
Put other 'greats' from last 60 years in same conditions and they all run 3 - 4 secs faster.
Cheruiyot & Jakob probably will run 3:27 this year and possibly 3:26 in near future, but that will be down to technical advantages that have recently occurred or are going to continue to occur. A 2022 3:26 is not the same as a 1998 3:26.
Peach Pit wrote:
OozmaKappa wrote:
No, neither one of them is capable of going under 3:28. Let's be real, they're just a couple of 3:28 guys, not 3:26 guys and especially not 3:25 guys.
Nothing wrong with that, I love Timothy, but not every athlete is going to be a Cheptegei or a Kiplimo.
To be fair, Jakob ran 3:28.3 in an Olympic Final and wasn't giving it his all through the line. I think he was capable of 3:27 high at the very least that day.
TC ran 3:28 with a 52 first lap, I think at the very least that's a 3:27.99 effort. It's arguably a 3:26 effort.
And when you say "Just a couple of 3:28 guys", I think it's important to remember that out of the 13 people (who are no longer competing in the 1500) who have ran 3:28, 5 of them broke 3:28, and a 6th ran a 3:26 equivalent. There's pretty much a 50/50 shot that if you run 3:28 during your career, you'll run under 3:28 in your career. Plus, these are two of the most consistent 1500m athletes of all time. They may not be El G level, but if they ran 3:26, it's not like nobody would have seen it coming.
Cheruiyot's first lap in Monaco 2020 was not 52secs! The lead pacer went through in 52.59 with Cheruiyot neatly drafted behind pacer no 2, going through in 53.1 He was then drafted for another lap and hit 800m in a sensible (for a 3:28) 1:51.7 (58.6 second 400m). Not ideal but not a 52 sec first lap for Cheruiyot.
Master Of Lolly wrote:
OozmaKappa wrote:
Hocker fans are a different breed. Delusional americans.
I'm European. But gotta give credit, where due. Either Jakob moves permanently to 5k or he will eventually lose to Hocker (and Kerr). Can't expect Cheruiyot to always pace for 3:29 to shake these guys off.
Why don´t you think Jakob can improve like (8.5 months younger) Hocker and (3 years older) Kerr?
5000m: I think Jakob will double the 1500m and the 5000m in the future at the Worlds and the Olympics when the schedule allows it. Starting this year in Eugene.
Ok it’s just over 53 seconds…Either way as you said he likely had a 3:27.5 in his legs. Jakob’s 3:28.3 was well paced but also third race in 4th days not where most PBS are set. Last years Monaco was objectively a tough setup for both with Jakob missing a week to sickness and Tim battling injury and having to lead the whole last 700 meters. I expect a jump this year.
Cole Hocker averaged 3:34.5 pace his first third of the race; he ran within himself, setting himself up for a good kick.
Hocker averaged 3:32.4 pace in the middle of the race, from 500m-1,000m.
Hocker ran 3:25.5 pace the final lap of the race.
Hocker's weakest point of his first international final was from 800-100, which he'd run in 3:33.75 pace.
When Hocker adds that extra bit of strength to push from 800 to a lap to go, he's already proven he's set up for a good finish.
So you deduct 3-4 seconds from Tim/Jakob because of shoes/track, but nothing for the rampant EPO use in the late 90s and early 00s? Yeah okay.
passed 2nd grade wrote:
Cole Hocker averaged 3:34.5 pace his first third of the race; he ran within himself, setting himself up for a good kick.
Hocker averaged 3:32.4 pace in the middle of the race, from 500m-1,000m.
Hocker ran 3:25.5 pace the final lap of the race.
Hocker's weakest point of his first international final was from 800-100, which he'd run in 3:33.75 pace.
When Hocker adds that extra bit of strength to push from 800 to a lap to go, he's already proven he's set up for a good finish.
eh?
I hope theyve improved the maths since your day.
There are 3x500m slices to the 1500m
J-> 3'31"5 -> 3'28"5 -> 3'24"9
C -> 3'35"4 -> 3'32"1 -> 3.26"7
Ingebrigtsen ran his slowest 400m from 200-600m, where he only ran 3'31"9 pace; Hocker? He was losing 1.8s to Ingebrigtsen over this period (3'33"7)
Hocker, on the other hand (and here's where I give you credit for trying), had his slowest lap between 800-110m (3'33"7 pace) (Ingebrigtsen started faster and covered that in 3'28"8 pace, but didn't beat Hocker by five seconds)
Ingebrigtsen ran the last 2/3 of his race at 3'26"7 pace (500m-1000m)
Hocker ran 3'29"4 pace over that same distance
Is it plausible Ingebrigtsen runs a 3'26 in a race set up straight from the gun? Sure, why not.
On the same token, it's not improbable or inconceivable for Hocker to run 3'29 this season? If he's worked on that middle section of his race (ie: strength 3k/5k) and doesn't lose speed, absolutely.
I think you guys have drank too much koolaide.
Why complicate things? You're using splits but not articulating those results very well.
For all intents and purposes, Hocker can maintain a world-class pace over the last section of his race. The only way he's in a race to win at this level is to cover moves more closely and not drift between laps through the bell.
Someone will run fast. Eventually. I think you're putting too much stock in splits.
3-star mahuke wrote:
passed 2nd grade wrote:
Cole Hocker averaged 3:34.5 pace his first third of the race; he ran within himself, setting himself up for a good kick.
Hocker averaged 3:32.4 pace in the middle of the race, from 500m-1,000m.
Hocker ran 3:25.5 pace the final lap of the race.
Hocker's weakest point of his first international final was from 800-100, which he'd run in 3:33.75 pace.
When Hocker adds that extra bit of strength to push from 800 to a lap to go, he's already proven he's set up for a good finish.
eh?
I hope theyve improved the maths since your day.
There are 3x500m slices to the 1500m
J-> 3'31"5 -> 3'28"5 -> 3'24"9
C -> 3'35"4 -> 3'32"1 -> 3.26"7
Ingebrigtsen ran his slowest 400m from 200-600m, where he only ran 3'31"9 pace; Hocker? He was losing 1.8s to Ingebrigtsen over this period (3'33"7)
Exactly what I mean when I say Hocker has bad pacing and his ability to close is overrated. Yakob is not particularly known to have a good kick, and hes only a 3:28 guy, yet hes splitting significantly faster 500m and 400m segments all across the board compared to Hocker even over the last lap. With better pacing, Hocker is a 3:30 guy, but at that pace he loses the ability to split those crazy 100m times which he has no business running in a mile. Tactically, it's a good tradeoff. But the media and fans reward the spectacle of stupid strategy and fast 100m splits over good pacing.
The Hocker phenomenon is what I call the illusion of speed. For those watching closesly, it's possible to see through it.