Official 2021 Nuttycombe Invite Discussion Thread: BYU vs NC State (W), Iowa State vs Oregon vs Stanford (M)

Further look how many fast times Tuohy put down last year, 6 or 7 very good ones and another 4 or 5 pretty good ones... plus much less worried about Tuohy s knee then girls who get these repetitive stress injuries, that's a sign your body is being overworked... tendons can be repaired very well today, even replaced... tuohy looks like iron,

Ezrun wrote:

Dudeck is a tough kid, you'd be too growing up with Russian tanks streaming through your streets,

Poland joined NATO before Dudek was born.

MidFootStriker wrote:

I hear you bro but you got to remember these are relatively easy 5K courses. Nationals will be run at a much tougher a 6K course. I really have no idea if b y u is going to be as good as last year but I'm just assuming based on the fact that was only eight months ago and several of the runners looked awesome at outdoor Nationals

Not sure how you came up with the thought that the Fl State course is much tougher. Tougher than what? a track? It seems much faster than the OSU course, and probably faster than Zimmer. Not that I am saying the ND course is tough, or tougher than Fl State.

The Lacctic algorithm is an interesting take on rankings. Teams and individuals are ranked in terms of track 5K equivalents. XC races are normalized based on field comparisons. Prior years are included and also track 5Ks. I find it reasonably accurate but it does miss some special cases. It also gets more accurate the more data it gets.

Current rankings

1 15:50 NC State

2 15:54 BYU

3 15:58 New Mexico

1 15:25 Mercy Chelangat

2 15:27 Whittni Orton

3 15:32 Taylor Roe

4 15:36 Bethany Hasz

5 15:38 Brynn Brown

6 15:39 Hannah Steelman

7 15:44 Zofia Dudek

8 15:45 Katelyn Tuohy

9 15:46 Jenna Magness

10 15:47 Taryn O'Neill

It will be interesting to see the changes after today's races are included.

The algorithm has a tempo filter which drops out relatively slow performances. For Dudek it dropped out her only race this year and her NCAA race. Since it was not a college race it also does not include the course record 16:16 she ran at Apalachee last December. Tullyrunners rated that one a 169 and claims a 169 is equivalent to a 15:40 so the two algorithms agree. Dudek had a serious injury, reported late and has just run the one race. I will be surprised if she is back up to speed today. That first race might not have been a tempo.

Anna Camp's opener at Apalachee was not filtered out and is a large part of her rating. Without it BYU would be ranked first. Last year Camp opened on the OSU course and then ran it 59 seconds faster at the championship.

https://www.lacctic.com/leagues/10/

Anyone have any insights on why the #4 Oklahoma State men's team is not racing this weekend as it is on the schedule for the men's team and the women are going to race there?

OriginalLurker wrote:

Ezrun wrote:

Dudeck is a tough kid, you'd be too growing up with Russian tanks streaming through your streets,

Poland joined NATO before Dudek was born.

wait a second, you telling me Dudek was born after the end of World War II? Wait someone verify? Wait , seriously, let's be a hundred percent certain before we proceed. Anyway you don't think the double invasion of Nazi Germany, anddd dictatorial Soviet Russia, was a traumatic event that had lasting reverberations. Combined with the humanitarian crisis that has emerged in the last several decades, that's quite a double whammy! You don't concur?

Yeah tuowee had to deal with the Redcoats and all. And probably had a lot of Latino refugees banging on her door, it's not the same thing. her home Country Wasn't invaded by that kind of double whammy. I guess there was a lot of civil unrest in her history cone..... ya know, history with the indigenous people, and then all sorts of other numerous civil rights issues. So yeah I guess they both have to be tough ladies when all is said and done

Kelsey chmiel? One of theTop Runner this year?

Hannah Steelman is not racing today.

Ezrun wrote:

Anyway you don't think the double invasion of Nazi Germany, anddd dictatorial Soviet Russia, was a traumatic event that had lasting reverberations. Combined with the humanitarian crisis that has emerged in the last several decades, that's quite a double whammy! You don't concur?

I don't concur.

Maybe you should come over here and actually visit Poland and speak with some people before making ill informed statements.

Just had the ladies b race on in the background...I saw T Starcher from Stanford out there (came in at 22:12). Has she been injured? Great to see her running, but I was surprised to see her on the B side.

Also, I know Starliper is not running today, but is she expected to be able to start this year?

Course looks in decent shape, should be ok for the main races.

Yes Starcher is coming back from stress fracture and Achilles issues . I’d say we won’t see a lot from her until next year

Ezrun wrote:

Kelsey chmiel? One of theTop Runner this year?

Click on the link. The list has top 100.

Chmiel is rated 15:47 and was #11 but they just loaded Pre Nats and a couple Buffaloes are in the top 10 now. Her track 15:56 adds two or three seconds to her rating. Otherwise she would be two or three spots higher.

Jedsdead wrote:

Just had the ladies b race on in the background...I saw T Starcher from Stanford out there (came in at 22:12). Has she been injured? Great to see her running, but I was surprised to see her on the B side.

Also, I know Starliper is not running today, but is she expected to be able to start this year?

Course looks in decent shape, should be ok for the main races.

Is there any realistic chance Marlee starliper could run this season? I mean someone clue me in to the history has there ever been a case where are a woman has missed the first half of the season and she has come back and then a top Runner after missing first half of the season, seems kind of tough if you are not able to even run to be in great shape

Distancefan wrote:

Yes Starcher is coming back from stress fracture and Achilles issues . I’d say we won’t see a lot from her until next year

thanks, i hadnt seen Starcher updates for a while and didn' t realize she was injured. glad to see her out again...especially if there was achilles problems.

What's up with Katelyn versus Dudek? Is it true they gave Dudek 1A and katie 1B as a number

lol...that would be great!!

There s commercials on the paid stream wth? Any commentary? Any thing interesting mentioned

just came on...nothing really yet

Thanks for bringing these up! Specific cases to look at are helpful when tuning the algorithm. (I found this post because I have a thing that tells me when people are entering my website from an outside link)

Part of the weirdness you are seeing with the tempo filter is that the overall filter (there are also season-specific filters) only activates if it would select races that are (on average) at most a year old. This avoids putting all the weight on an amazing freshman season from 3 years ago. Thats why Anna Camp's performance was not filtered out. I'm guessing it will get fixed after another recent performance pops up on tfrrs.

Dudek is an annoying edge case that I haven't been able to solve yet. Essentially, "last season" was only 6 months ago so my "recency safety" doesn't go off. It's also very difficult to tell the difference between tempos and actual lack of fitness in the earlier parts of the season. I may disable the overall filtering for this season in a few weeks. This would require that at least some performances from this season get nontrivial weights. Unfortunately, this would reward some teams who chose to race extremely infrequently (cough cough..Notre Dame).