Stop lying to yourselves about ATHING MU, she has WR potential

gernu wrote:

prezzy wrote:

African Americans do not mature before whites lol. If anything, after. Webb was balding in HS.

Actually they do on average but I would not consider this relevant at all in Mu’s case.

For reference, African Americans (according to studies of bone density) physically mature the slowest.

African American females reach puberty earlier. Please stop trying to correct me.

I do not consider this subject relevant to Athing but as per usual I am correct.

https://www.familyeducation.com/life/early-puberty/do-african-american-girls-reach-puberty-earlier

A. Wilson better 'hurry up' and get herself a Gold before Mu dominates like Semenya did.

What if Doha was Wilson's only/best shot?

Armstronglivs wrote:

USADAWADA wrote:

I think mu will run 1:54 next year

No one knows if she's clean. If she drops nearly 4 secs next year she isnt.

I expect 1:55.8 this year so it's more like dropping 1-2 secs

Let me summarize Armstrong's ramblings over the last few days: Athing either stagnates as an 18 yr and disappoints everyone or she gets faster and is a doper .

Sadly, this is what the majority is saying here. That's how damaging doping is to our sport, people stopped believing in talent and hard work. Nowadays for many people a white feminine girl with a face of an angel is the only type of a clean female athlete. Athing Mu is young, has insane speed, long legs, a beautiful stride and no-nonsense armwork. There is literally no reason to not believe in her improvement. I'm positive she is here to dominate which is sad for Ajee Wilson.

KIKIKI wrote:

Let me summarize Armstrong's ramblings over the last few days: Athing either stagnates as an 18 yr and disappoints everyone or she gets faster and is a doper .

KIKIKI wrote:

Let me summarize Armstrong's ramblings over the last few days: Athing either stagnates as an 18 yr and disappoints everyone or she gets faster and is a doper .

Well although Armstronglivs is not as smart as he thinks he is, that is NOT exactly what he is saying. He said that if Athing improved to 1:54 next year (in his words nearly 4 seconds), that she is doping. I would not say that myself necessarily but since she is unlikely to ever break 1:54 it would be unexpected for her to run 1:54 next year. However, I would not automatically conclude she is doping if that happened but nor would I rule it out. Just because she has a beautiful stride does not guarantee that she will improve as much as some of you anticipate. I would expect her to run at least 1:55 and possibly 1:54 before she retires if she can stay healthy. Anyway I am not sure why we argue about it because she will do what she does regardless of what we predict.

gernuu wrote:

Anyway I am not sure why we argue about it because she will do what she does regardless of what we predict.

Wise words of the thread.

Just to note, I personally have always thought that Bekeles records are here to stay forever, but here we are. By the time we're old, almost all of the records, if not all, will be beaten.

KIKIKI wrote:

Let me summarize Armstrong's ramblings over the last few days: Athing either stagnates as an 18 yr and disappoints everyone or she gets faster and is a doper .

This thread is too sophisticated for you.

The discussion is all opinion in the end. I also agree that 1.55 is possible, while pointing out that at this level 2.7secs is a very big improvement (like a man dropping from 1.44x to 1.41x). Anything below that - by anybody, not just a talented athlete as she is - I wouldn't trust, for very obvious reasons.

She's only 18, improvement over 2.7 sec wouldn't be unusual.

paris2024hawk wrote:

She's only 18, improvement over 2.7 sec wouldn't be unusual.

For the average athlete - maybe, but not so for the very best elite athletes. If Amos improved 2.7secs after 18 he would have run 1.39. World class times at 18 suggest a runner is close to their peak.

Wilson ran 1:58.21 at a few months older (2013 @ 19 y 4m) and got to 1:55.61 (Monaco+ Semenya "pacing") 4 years later. I would not extremely be surprised if Mu got to 1:55.xx within the next two years and without help of an even faster runner (because there is none, if she runs that fast, she'll have to do it mostly on her own, at least for the last 300m)

But I still doubt that this makes it very likely Mu can get the additional 2 secs. to the WR.

Jo72 wrote:

Wilson ran 1:58.21 at a few months older (2013 @ 19 y 4m) and got to 1:55.61 (Monaco+ Semenya "pacing") 4 years later. I would not extremely be surprised if Mu got to 1:55.xx within the next two years and without help of an even faster runner (because there is none, if she runs that fast, she'll have to do it mostly on her own, at least for the last 300m)

But I still doubt that this makes it very likely Mu can get the additional 2 secs. to the WR.

Agreed. With all of that.

Ajee Wilson was a 54 / 400m and 4:24 / 1500m runner in 2013, when she ran 1:58 at the age of 19. Athing Mu is a 50 / 400m and 4:16 / 1500 runner at the age of 18. Expect 1:55 / 1:56 this year.

Jo72 wrote:

Wilson ran 1:58.21 at a few months older (2013 @ 19 y 4m) and got to 1:55.61 (Monaco+ Semenya "pacing") 4 years later. I would not extremely be surprised if Mu got to 1:55.xx within the next two years and without help of an even faster runner (because there is none, if she runs that fast, she'll have to do it mostly on her own, at least for the last 300m)

But I still doubt that this makes it very likely Mu can get the additional 2 secs. to the WR.

Hey Sal-

I wasn't aware of a "Semi-Pro" circuit in Europe. Are you referencing IAAF permit meetings? If so, which meets did you compete in? Also, a 1:46 PB got you to the Olympics and World Champs? Or did you compete in another event? What country did you represent?

Just curious.

:)

Let me start by saying I have no idea if Athing Mu can eventually break the WR in the Women's 800m. If I had to put money on just one runner currently in the HS, College, or Pro ranks getting closest to that time between now and the 2028 Olympics, I'd have a hard time going with anyone other than Mu. But taking down WRs at standard race distances requires an extraordinary confluence of talent, health, peak fitness, and circumstantial luck (e.g., good weather, competition, race strategy/tactics, etc.) even in the most favorable of circumstances, and for likely tainted WRs even more so.

Still, as an alum who closely follows the Texas A&M track and field program, I think many posters on here may be missing some important context to appreciating just how good Mu has been already in her remarkably short college career.

First of all, it's important to realize that Pat Henry (36 national DI team titles in his storied coaching career) and her specialty coach, Milton Mallard, realize that they are working with a generational talent and are bringing Mu along VERY slowly and carefully with an eye toward her being able to make the Olympic team and compete for a finals spot and medal there this summer. She has not in any way shown all her cards this year, racing only in the 4 x 400m relay at roughly half of the Aggies' meets this year.

Remember that she has only raced the 800 three times this year - (1) her collegiate debut on January 16th in 2:01.07 running 8 seconds ahead of 2nd place, (2) her collegiate indoor record at SEC Indoors on February 27th in 1:58.40 running 4 seconds ahead of 2nd place, and (3) her collegiate outdoor record this past weekend in 1:57.73 running more than 3 seconds ahead of 2nd place (who just happened to be the NCAA Indoor 800m champ).

Along the way, she also took down Raevyn Rogers' 600m collegiate indoor record and also ran anchor on the A&M collegiate indoor record 4 x 400m relay team. She has run almost all of these records without being in any way seriously pushed by her opponents. (I grant that this leaves legitimate questions about how she'll perform in more tactical races where her smooth stride and unimpeded path to the finish line may be thrown into question, but this thread is focused on time and whether she has the potential to break or threaten a WR. And she almost certainly could have run faster in each of these races if she had some competition either pulling her along or pushing closely behind her.)

Second, many people seem to be talking of her 400 speed based on her open 50.52 indoors, but I would argue that this is hardly the most relevant data point for evaluating her 800 potential. For starters, she ran that time indoors where she has more and tighter turns to negotiate. But also she's a very tall and lean athlete--coming out of starting blocks is never going to be a strength of hers. It's FAR MORE RELEVANT to evaluate her 400m speed from a flying start and here her (indoor) relay split of 49.54 (the fastest split ever recorded indoors by anyone--doping or not!) is quite an impressive data point (literally, no one--not Miller-Uibo, Richards-Ross, Okolo, Irby, McLaughlin, Ellis, or any other recent-ish NCAA star--ever has produced a more impressive data point!). And she ran that leg roughly an hour after racing the indoor 400m final.

Speaking of which, anyone who watched the race could see that Mu only lost (and probably only missed breaking 50 seconds and smashing yet another collegiate record) in that 400m indoor final because Kaelin Roberts (a prior NCAA champ at the distance) had the guts and the stuff to gain pole position after the break and this caused Mu to have to run in lane 2 pretty much the entire second lap. It was a tremendous bit of tactical running by Roberts, but let's not kid ourselves--if that race had been run outdoors in lanes, or if Mu had gotten to 200m first off the break, the outcome would have been totally different. Mu then came back an hour later and beat Roberts on her world historical best 49.54 split after getting the stick BEHIND her (and the A&M team broke the meet record and nearly their own collegiate record in the process).

Finally, on the point about her one 1500m time from this season, anyone who evaluates her as if 4:16 was her tapping out for the distance is vastly misguided. She ran that in a duel meet against the University of Texas where she controlled the race and then outkicked Texas' #1 woman. Had she needed to run 4:12 or even 4:10 to win, I'm confident she could have done so. In a tactical 1500--and even in a fairly honest race--I would bet on her to beat almost any current NCAA woman runner (Sage Hurta also has pretty strong 400 ability in addition to being a more natural miler, so she might be the one woman I could see running away from Mu.). Certainly, if you gave Henry and Milton a couple months to focus on 1500m training with her, she would be VERY hard to beat at the distance.

And that brings me to the final point, which is simply that Mu is not just a physical freak, but has the mental stuff of champions. She has the "it" factor. She does not lose races or miss targeted records except under exceptional circumstances (like Roberts' incredibly gutsy tactics in the indoor 400 championship race).

Does that mean she will never lose a race against the best pros in the business? Probably not; that's a tall order and there are so many different ways that races can unfold that it seems unlikely she's never going to lose an 800 over the next decade even if she is more talented and fit than anyone else. But, again, this thread is focused on whether she has the potential to break or even threaten the WR and doing so requires not only generational physical talent (which she clearly has if anyone does), but also a level of mental strength and confidence that very, very few have (which I would argue she also clearly has if you've been paying attention since she broke the American indoor 600m record as a 16-year old running against pros).

Again, if you're betting on anyone currently on the radar from HS to the pro circuit to seriously threaten the WR, name one person who has a more compelling case than Athing Mu. Will be waiting to hear!

Thank you for this comment. Was very insightful and made a great read. I agree with everything you said and am very curious on Mu will develope this year.