Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Valby always attacks early. That is her m/o. She clearly feels she can outstrength the field, but it did not happen last spring. Tuohy's game plan should be to just stay with her like she did in the 5000. The hills and weather will be a big factor. Tuohy has run well on some tough courses this year. Just hoping for a good race. We will see if Tuohy has an injury or if all Valby's big solo efforts finally catch up with her.

Now watch McCabe win the whole thing.

I think the goal is to try to win the race which also helps the team. They are not in conflict. I don't see Tuohy just letting Valby or anyone else go. Maybe Valby is so superior she blows away the whole field. Or maybe not.

“Most people race to see who is faster. I run to see who has more guts.”
-Steve Prefontaine

but Valby is an individual so there is no connection......I think there must be a point that if Valby is taking it so hard, those on teams need to make sure they won't blow up on last hill.

Someone with more scoring knowledge can comment, but I don't think beating an individual contender factors in team scoring.

I also thought that if Valby wins, and Tuohy is second, Tuohy's score would count as a "1"?

As far as team title goes, Chelangat, Mccabe, Roe and Tuohy will be more concerned with beating each other with respect to team win, so I can see a conflict if Valby completely guns it and takes a huge risk.

I agree with Fanagan here as well, that is a likely strategy.

Chelangat did not redline staying within 8 seconds of Valby going full bore. But maybe Valby was holding back and is such an outlier that no one can stay with her. Generally runners can have good days and bad. For example in the 5000m Tuohy was not having her best day but held on.

yea but that long climb in the last k at OSU makes it harder to hang on than if it is level (or downhill like RL), no? Recall Orton, forget about the other lesser runners, from 2020? She hit that little hill at 5K and she was done. 1==> 17

Like I said everyone can have a bad day. Heck back in day Lance Armstrong bonked at his height dueling with Pantani. But assuming things are alright I don't see Tuohy redlining given how well she ran at ACCs on a hard course. If someone runs faster, so be it.

Fo sho, fo sho, team trophy gonna be decided on that last hill.

Yeah that might be good. Ceili Mccabe is a good example. She was undefeated last year (and this year). I think last year going into nats she was ranked 33rd? But placed 3rd.

Franklin is a wonderful coach. Really laid back for a coach of a perennial contender.

New Mexico

NC State

OU

From 4 months ago - I hold myself accountable

1/2 correct - NC State only got 4 in top 30 (but w/o Starliper/Shaw and Seymour further back; NM got 5 in top 34)

OSU - 4th

NAU - 6th, CO 11th - but basically without Covert which cost them a lot, ND 7th on a bad day, AL 3rd, WA 17th continues to disappoint, BYU 8th

The next tier mostly disappointed except UNC got 5th on a real good day by their team

Individuals I think the picks going into today remained good although some did not have the result they wanted. Hutchins hopefully can get on the road to mending whatever her ailment was.

6/10 for me as well...of course the big 3, but Jipkirui really had a tough day. But I should get credit...I had 'thought about moving Stearns into my top 10....do I get a participant ribbon at least??

My takeaways:

Tuohy's close in this race is going to go down as one of the top ncaa championship finishes of all time. I still can't believe she let the gap get to 12 seconds before reeling Valby in. And Valby was not running out of steam, negative split, still going strong.

Valby's race was pretty much as predicted, but with a much bigger gap. Interested to see her speed on the track.

Chmiel is a star in her own right. If xc ever becomes an Olympic event, she will be on the team.

Super impressed with Cook. After Big 12s I thought she would be maybe 15th, but I was wrong.

Tyynismaa is back. She has a 4:31 split in the dmr and excited to see what she does next.

There are quite a few runners to watch this year. In no particular order, Stearns (wow), Olemomoi, Maatoug (2:03 800 runner who can do cross?) All three I think will do well.

Rauber and Moreno were clutch, both on clear upward trajectory now.

Roe, surprised she wasn't OK #1, but I also read on here she has been rumored to be getting over an injury

Chelangat & Mccabe, I think maybe just had a bad day. They both pb'd, but I am sure could have done better. The field this year was also just amazingly strong.

Valby went 9:40-9:50. That is why Tuohy caought her.

She was over 9:50 at the actual 3k mark

I do agree with you. I was surprised that Tuohy let her get that far in front...but when she took off, it was with authority. Not sure if most saw this, as it is not in the Youtube video, but when Tuohy took off from the pack there was an aerial shot that also showed Olemomoi (I believe) trying to go with her...it lasted for about 30 meters and then she dropped back to the pack. Tuohy was blazing!!

Valby ran well....but her last Km split was 3:31 vs 3:22 for Tuohy / Chmiel. Again, I give Valby all props for running a heck of a race....but she just got beat by a better runner.