I don't really understand Lactic but it seems like someone named Keratin Augustin predicted to win nationals even though she was something like a minute and half behind bush in the Adidas Challenge at the beginning of the season. Also shows her 12 seconds ahead of PV and over 40 seconds ahead of KT. Am I missing something here? If not, it seems like there are some serious flaws in the methodology.
Obviously some bad data. She ran a 4K that got credited as a 5K.
Its not a mis-crediting of distance - distance isn't used.
It IS bad data. Something is off in the results, you can tell by looking at them. I keep trying to remove the race but I accidentally let the scraper re-scrape it. I've removed it now and the ratings should update soon.
John Hunt had a few short 1-2degree hills, and the one 6 degree hill at 4k. Otherwise the course is very flat with many down hills. Very fast course. Valby ran the hill fine, But any of these runners would have no problem running one hill. In a cross country course it’s the accumulation of hills that is the killer, and whether the runner can recover quickly enough for the next hill.
It certainly does not help deep-south runners. Runners who are used to that type of weather adapt quickly; runners who are not used to it may or may not....I am from Canada, and we have had several situations where southern teams (US/Mexico) came to outdoor meets or XC in some bitter cold/snow. Some were absolutely fine, but others really struggled.
I think Mercy was obviously pacing herself at Regionals. At SEC, Mercy let Valby go early in the race...maybe she was thinking that Valby would fade...but Mercy also held pace with her for the last 2km. So I believe Mercy did go all out, but made a mistake in the middle and let Valby get to far ahead.
Anyway, everyone knows the type of shape Valby is in...so the top runners will not let her get too far ahead at the beginning. Mercy included.
This is true....Tuohy has said she does not like the cold....but she has raced in it for years. So this weather will not be anything out of the ordinary for her, Chmiel, Rauber etc.
Hopefully just a (very) bad day and nothing serious. They need her up there with Larkin, Mazza and Heckel to have a shot at the title.
wow, I guess I did not look down enough to see her....Covert of CO also faded rather badly though I think.
I would have to think Dishon got tweaked somehting during the race...but hopefully she just pulled up to be preventative.
Dishon being injured would be a huge blow to NM, and really open this race up for other teams. NC St probably moves back to the number 1 spot (for my rankings).... so hard to say though with these team races.
No it isn't. I doubt that you have run it. I have been there several times. I put is similar to Wisconsin and Mizzou and nothing like the pool pancake at Notre Dame.
The hs times on that course would seem to be in conflict with your statement, especially in regards to Wisconsin
Thanks. I looked at this and rewatched and noticed the bigger hill this time. It's a decent hill and Valby was 3:03/ k or so at the end. She looked to me like she was running pretty hard through her kick.
Bama was out for a jog.
Tuohy has definitely closed that fast (and faster) this season. So as others have said, think it comes down to how early Valby pushes it and makes a breakaway from Tuohy, Chelangat, Mccabe and Roe and what strategy the others use, if they can (or try to) hang or not.
No it isn't. I doubt that you have run it. I have been there several times. I put is similar to Wisconsin and Mizzou and nothing like the pool pancake at Notre Dame.
The hs times on that course would seem to be in conflict with your statement, especially in regards to Wisconsin
The day before RunningLane nationals, a high school coach wheeled the notoriously fast John Hunt Park course in Huntsville and measured it at 4935m. But that doesn't tell the whole story. *MB Is the RunningLane Course 5K? Or...
I don't know if the 6km course would be arranged differently than the 5km high school course but a characteristic of that course was a long downhill over the last 1.5-1.8 km that led to very fast final km times. The footing was also designed to be really good.
wow, I guess I did not look down enough to see her....Covert of CO also faded rather badly though I think.
I would have to think Dishon got tweaked somehting during the race...but hopefully she just pulled up to be preventative.
Dishon being injured would be a huge blow to NM, and really open this race up for other teams. NC St probably moves back to the number 1 spot (for my rankings).... so hard to say though with these team races.
ABQ Journal reported she had food poisoning, yuck. That explains the result though. Pretty impressive to start, never mind even finish. UNM is so deep they didn't need her at Regionals, wondering why she didn't sit it out. Must've thought she could go I guess.
I would have to think Dishon got tweaked somehting during the race...but hopefully she just pulled up to be preventative.
Dishon being injured would be a huge blow to NM, and really open this race up for other teams. NC St probably moves back to the number 1 spot (for my rankings).... so hard to say though with these team races.
ABQ Journal reported she had food poisoning, yuck. That explains the result though. Pretty impressive to start, never mind even finish. UNM is so deep they didn't need her at Regionals, wondering why she didn't sit it out. Must've thought she could go I guess.
That is terrible... but good news in the sense that she should (hopefully) be able to recover from something like that by next week.
NM coach is very transparent and gives a lot of updates. Wish some other teams coaches were like that
I can’t read thru 49 pages of predictions so I’m not sure if this has already been discussed but Valbys best strategy is to go hard from the gun (which seems to be her style anyway). With nc states team title on the line, touhy might not want to risk it by going after Valby & possibly bonking. I don’t think valby is that much better than her that she could redline touhy but with valby proving she can race fast w/o competition & valby not having the pressure of the team title, her best bet is to push the pace & take risks
