I, neither, think Jakob was in his best 10000m shape -his thinking of running the distance in champs un prepared might be based on the very real assumption of these races often being somewhat slow, and maybe that he could win them on his closing speed and even him being a hot weather freak… And yes, 10 is a higher number than 1.5, 3 and 5. But 5, f.x, is the closest number to 10, in the running events. -There’s some striking likeness between 5 and 10, especially for a guy who claims he is better the longer the distance..
Yes, we must give Jakob some slack, even in a so relatively (to our discussion) short event as the 10k, because of the track season (priorities). But not a whole minute or more..! (Take a look on Aregawi and Kejelcha etc who can impress both in the 3k and 10k in the same track season, and even the HM quite closely)…
Your example about Cheptegei fits my narrative much better than yours, I think. -He lead the WC xc to Kamworor with a huge margin, an only blew up (huge) in the last hundreds of meters. If Jakob had done something similar (that I think he feared; he’s not stupid) everything would have been fine… But I agree that all doesn’t have to be said and done when it comes to Jakob and 10k/HM -who knows; maybe he can keep his double threshold, and only do some longer long runs, and some long tempo runs ++, and down prioritise the 1500m, and everything would be fine. But he would then have to change his former saying -the very un nuanced and cocky and deceptive words about fast 10k/HM without any words at all about the need of changing his training / focus… For now he is a guy who significantly (and absurdly, and very unusually, compared to his competitors in the 5000m) gets worse the longer the distance, and not the opposite…
Jakob’s performance in Copenhagen was really really bad. Let me compare him to two other guys; first myself: I pretty much only ran 1.5 years in my teens because of injuries and very poor insight in training principles. But I ran an off event I was extremely poorly prepared for, because of injuries and because of lack of talent for the distance. And I front ran the whole damn thing. But I ran under the women’s WR, and my time is still better than the current WR. But I considered my self a hobby jogger in the event. So what does that make Jakob -he’s behind the women’s WR (yes not only behind one woman), despite excellent pacing in what he calls his best event. This is cognitive dissonance, because he clearly currently is a hobby jogger in the event. -His self declared, former grossly over weight, hobby jogger 36 years old brother, Kristoffer, might come closer to Jakob in the HM, than Jakob to the HM WR..!
Second example: In the 10k Jakob has all the features of a borderline B athlete. -Narve Gilje Nordås, which main focus is the 1500m (twice ran sub 3.30, WC bronze) just ran 27.31 in the 10k, in a totally un prepared race, with poorer packing than Jakob, coming from 190 km weeks altitude training after a near season pause where he was amazed of how bad shape he fell into. My point: If we give Jakob a 12.40 capacity in the 5000m he would be 25 sec better than Nordås’ 5000pb, but his 27.27 would only be 4 sec better than his countryman’s 10k run, whereas it should be at least 50 sec if Jakob is better the longer the distance. (Ok -I twist things a little, because Nordås might have sub 13 capacity in the 5000m, but still). -The signs of Jakob being a poor currently 10k runner can’t be overlooked, and provokingly it is tempting to prolong it even to the 5000m event (not the clown races, that has very little to do with running, but the fast ones, that Jakob hasn’t done).
I should of course have skipped the last two sentences, because unlike Armstronglivs I don’t necessarily thrive with the multiple downvotes, but what the heck (why not claim the truth now and then without any agenda what so ever) -fun to try other posters boots once in a while…