Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

MidFootStriker wrote:

Yeah NC state to me is weird that they couldn't get their runners to stay healthy and to be ready this time of year

But obviously there's always a lot more factors going on in people's life and things you just can't predict

MidFootStriker wrote:

Yeah NC state to me is weird that they couldn't get their runners to stay healthy and to be ready this time of year

But obviously there's always a lot more factors going on in people's life and things you just can't predict

But I mean it's not like college football or anything where they have to play a lot of tough games early in the season

I mean literally all they had to do is be ready to run one race at the end of November and evidently half their team couldn't stay healthy or be in peak shape

But you never know they could still surprise and have a strong showing

But I don't think bama or OSU has a strong enough five to compete so guess we'll see

MidFootStriker wrote:

Yeah NC state to me is weird that they couldn't get their runners to stay healthy and to be ready this time of year

But obviously there's always a lot more factors going on in people's life and things you just can't predict

But I mean it's not like college football or anything where they have to play a lot of tough games early in the season

I mean literally all they had to do is be ready to run one race at the end of November and evidently half their team couldn't stay healthy or be in peak shape

But you never know they could still surprise and have a strong showing

But I don't think bama or OSU has a strong enough five to compete so guess we'll see

Assuming no Marlee Starliper I have NM winning with about 100 points, over NC State with around 115. OSU around 140, then AL,ND, NAU around 250. AL 5th really weighs them down unless I see something at Regional meet. I have NC St avg time a little faster than NM but that does not determine winner! I have 3 NM runners ahead of Bush and 2 more ahead of Seymour at this point. Mareno/Rauber/Quarzo fight it out for NC ST 5th runner but back around 50 or so.

Blank231 wrote:

Assuming no Marlee Starliper I have NM winning with about 100 points, over NC State with around 115. OSU around 140, then AL,ND, NAU around 250. AL 5th really weighs them down unless I see something at Regional meet. I have NC St avg time a little faster than NM but that does not determine winner! I have 3 NM runners ahead of Bush and 2 more ahead of Seymour at this point. Mareno/Rauber/Quarzo fight it out for NC ST 5th runner but back around 50 or so.

Where do you have Ala & OSU 1-2-3 relative to Bush, NM?

FastTuohy wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

FastTuohy wrote:

fwiw I just ran simulation on LACCTiC w/o Starliper and it shows NM 109, NC St 133, OK St 158, ND 209, AL 251

FastTuohy

I have AL with 3 in top 15 (roughly 2/8/15), OK St with 3 in top 10 (maybe all 5-10 and maybe a tad aggressive) and Bush 20-25. NM with 3 18-20 ish (just ahead of Bush) and 2 more 25-30. OK St 4th is ahead of NC St 5th, but their 5th is further back.

Blank231 wrote:

FastTuohy

I have AL with 3 in top 15 (roughly 2/8/15), OK St with 3 in top 10 (maybe all 5-10 and maybe a tad aggressive) and Bush 20-25. NM with 3 18-20 ish (just ahead of Bush) and 2 more 25-30. OK St 4th is ahead of NC St 5th, but their 5th is further back.

Just my opinion, but Jepkirui, Olemomi and Cook all making top 10 seems maybe a bit aggressive?

astro wrote:

If no Starliper than NM is the favorite. But it will be close. My guess is that altitude advantage will get them over the hump on the Stillwater course. NCSt needs someone to really step up.

FastTuohy wrote:

Blank231 wrote:

Just my opinion, but Jepkirui, Olemomi and Cook all making top 10 seems maybe a bit aggressive?

maybe

Blank231 wrote:

astro wrote:

If no Starliper than NM is the favorite. But it will be close. My guess is that altitude advantage will get them over the hump on the Stillwater course. NCSt needs someone to really step up.

It's going to be a battle and a fight for every point.

Jedsdead wrote:

What were the individual placement predictions for NM, NCSt, and OSU with Starliper out.

FastTuohy wrote:

Jedsdead wrote:

What were the individual placement predictions for NM, NCSt, and OSU with Starliper out.

I listed most above