If Parker Valby goes out in 15:20 it's over. She is a front runner, and we will know early if Touhy can hang on.
My bet is that Valby goes out fast and runs a course record time for the win.
Charles Hicks outkicks Nico Young for the men.
I agree Valby takes the lead as usual. Under 5:00 at the top of the first hill (or <2:00 from 1K) and it is a fast pace.
Regardless, this will be a fast race between two generational talents and future PRO stars. (One of these Ladies will have a World/Oly medal in the next six years).
I agree Valby takes the lead as usual. Under 5:00 at the top of the first hill (or <2:00 from 1K) and it is a fast pace.
Regardless, this will be a fast race between two generational talents and future PRO stars. (One of these Ladies will have a World/Oly medal in the next six years).
I can't find anything faster than the 20:01 by Chelangat since the course was redone and I agree that will go by 30 seconds or so.
If Parker Valby goes out in 15:20 it's over. She is a front runner, and we will know early if Touhy can hang on.
My bet is that Valby goes out fast and runs a course record time for the win.
Charles Hicks outkicks Nico Young for the men.
I simply do not know why there is an expectation that Valby can drop Tuohy by going out quickly. Valby is a front runner...absolutely. Tuohy has made a career of it. Valby and Tuohy have similar speeds for 3k, and Tuohy just beat Valby at 5k (both track races obviously). Unless Valby's speed has gone up drastically over 3 months...she isn't going to be able to put much room between herself and Tuohy. I wouldn't expect Tuohy to let her get more that 3 or 4 seconds ahead. Even when looking at the SEC race....Mercy let Valby get ahead in the middle, but then hung with her the rest of the race. She was not dropping Mercy in the last few KM.
I'm not saying Valby can't beat Tuohy...but to do so, she will have to beat Tuohy on the hills...I really don't like her chances of that. Again, I haven't seen Valby run significant hills since the 2020 NCAA's...so maybe she can. But there are 4 - 6 top hill runners at the front end of this field.
I also expect that McCabe/Chmiel/Roe/Mercy will be right in the mix...so she will either need a heck of a lead before that last hill....or needs to beat them all on it. If she does that...good on her. Not where my bet would be placed though.
I agree Valby takes the lead as usual. Under 5:00 at the top of the first hill (or <2:00 from 1K) and it is a fast pace.
Regardless, this will be a fast race between two generational talents and future PRO stars. (One of these Ladies will have a World/Oly medal in the next six years).
Completely agree....this will be a loaded race!! Should be fun to watch
"I'm not saying Valby can't beat Tuohy...but to do so, she will have to beat Tuohy on the hills.."
I have made a career out of underestimating Tuohy, and she ALWAYS proves me wrong. She always meets expectations. It would not shock anyone if she won.
I simply do not know why there is an expectation that Valby can drop Tuohy by going out quickly. Valby is a front runner...absolutely. Tuohy has made a career of it. Valby and Tuohy have similar speeds for 3k, and Tuohy just beat Valby at 5k (both track races obviously). Unless Valby's speed has gone up drastically over 3 months...she isn't going to be able to put much room between herself and Tuohy. I wouldn't expect Tuohy to let her get more that 3 or 4 seconds ahead. Even when looking at the SEC race....Mercy let Valby get ahead in the middle, but then hung with her the rest of the race. She was not dropping Mercy in the last few KM.
I think the implication is that she *has* gotten that much faster over the summer. In the SEC race she looked like she was going hard the whole time, not letting up at all and did not look tired. TSR called it 'frightening display of a seemingly unlimited source of fitness' in their latest rankings. I don't disagree with that, after watching the race.
Tuohy has looked amazing too, but we have not seen her go hard from the gun and front run. And unfortunately there is no video of Joe Piane. At SECs Chelangat looked like she was really, really going for it too and got smoked.
If anyone can stick with Valby, it's Tuohy for sure. After watching the SEC race I now kind of doubt any of the others will be able to. Unless, as you said, the hills really slow her down.
I simply do not know why there is an expectation that Valby can drop Tuohy by going out quickly. Valby is a front runner...absolutely. Tuohy has made a career of it. Valby and Tuohy have similar speeds for 3k, and Tuohy just beat Valby at 5k (both track races obviously). Unless Valby's speed has gone up drastically over 3 months...she isn't going to be able to put much room between herself and Tuohy. I wouldn't expect Tuohy to let her get more that 3 or 4 seconds ahead. Even when looking at the SEC race....Mercy let Valby get ahead in the middle, but then hung with her the rest of the race. She was not dropping Mercy in the last few KM.
I think the implication is that she *has* gotten that much faster over the summer. In the SEC race she looked like she was going hard the whole time, not letting up at all and did not look tired. TSR called it 'frightening display of a seemingly unlimited source of fitness' in their latest rankings. I don't disagree with that, after watching the race.
Tuohy has looked amazing too, but we have not seen her go hard from the gun and front run. And unfortunately there is no video of Joe Piane. At SECs Chelangat looked like she was really, really going for it too and got smoked.
If anyone can stick with Valby, it's Tuohy for sure. After watching the SEC race I now kind of doubt any of the others will be able to. Unless, as you said, the hills really slow her down.
That is right, if you believe the splits/distances, Valby was 3:11 for 1K then 15:15 for the next 5K. She did look like she started pushing it somewhere before 3K (as I recall).
That is right, if you believe the splits/distances, Valby was 3:11 for 1K then 15:15 for the next 5K. She did look like she started pushing it somewhere before 3K (as I recall).
I actually don't believe the splits/distances. It's subjective, but just the overall impression I got after watching the race and seeing how hard Chelangat was trying (and how un-tired Valby looked).
Chelangat has run 15:17 twice, so she is pretty fast herself.
"I'm not saying Valby can't beat Tuohy...but to do so, she will have to beat Tuohy on the hills.."
I have made a career out of underestimating Tuohy, and she ALWAYS proves me wrong. She always meets expectations. It would not shock anyone if she won.
I may be on the other side...in my opinion, Tuohy has not lost an XC race when she is healthy in 4 - 5 yrs. And she looks scary fit right now...the ease that she dropped Chmiel at ACC's during an already fast race was something else. However, I do also realize I may get a little blinded as well.
Regardless, it will be fun...I truly hope Valby is in the mix at the top of the last hill, as well as the others. Would be great to see a dash for the line!!
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a team no one is discussing is going to surprise and bump one or more of the top teams down … a BYU, Colorado, NAU, ND… Everyone is obsessed w NCST, OKST, unm
someone else will have a kick ass day and usurp them
a team no one is discussing is going to surprise and bump one or more of the top teams down … a BYU, Colorado, NAU, ND… Everyone is obsessed w NCST, OKST, unm
someone else will have a kick ass day and usurp them
a team no one is discussing is going to surprise and bump one or more of the top teams down … a BYU, Colorado, NAU, ND… Everyone is obsessed w NCST, OKST, unm
someone else will have a kick ass day and usurp them
Hmm. Alabama. They are looking good
Yup forgot about them. That’s my point. The Tuohy - NCST obsession is blinding everyone to a bunch of other really really good teams
