NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Union Catholic speed ratings (Wischusen was there)
http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/OceanStateRI2023.htm
Looks like Westfield and Brookline have better speed ratings

Was looking at highest speed ratings this season, and saw a 15:25 result at the top? He won by almost a minute and a half.

pa.milesplit.com

51st Marty Uher Vulcans Invitational 2023 - Steel Boys 5K

MileSplits official Steel Boys 5K formatted results for the 2023 51st Marty Uher Vulcans Invitational , hosted by California University of PA in California PA.

Open link

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/HighestSpeedRatings2023.htm

I know Griffith is a stud with some really good track times as a Junior, but that still seems absurd. Is the course like a trail race or something? I wouldn't expect anything over 15 minutes to be worthy of the top speed rating in the nation when people are running sub 14 3 miles and sub 15 5K's in actually competitive races.

If all these guys that are barely getting above 190s beat him at nationals(including simmons), it's just a small mistake.

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Union Catholic girls team beat last year’s NXN champs Saratoga. Saratoga lost the Wheeler twins and now have a big 3-4 gap. Union Catholic’s #2,3,4,5 beat Saratoga’s #2,3,4,5

I question this logic, if CBA is running better as a team then how could one be so certain that CBA will finish at least 3rd this year. Statistically they're number one rn, granted it is september. If NXN had been on saturday, those guys would've been raising me to the heavens.

Speed ratings can be completely different west vs east as they rarely go head-to-head, that's where the logic comes from. Statistically they are better on paper, but people doubt it because they seen this happen before. Lavern Gibson at Nike Twilight was a good example last year. Top 5 teams there had insane speed ratings compared to the teams in the west. Everyone later found out they weren't as good as the speed ratings said they were. Another example is that Drew Griffith recently ran 197 by himself in the east but Daniel Simmons very hard effort gets him a 188 in the west. It's not easy to compare two different regions. Speed ratings are a great tool but they aren't flawless. That is why they trust a strong win over many well recognized teams over really high speed ratings.

Speed ratins are a great way to identify good teams, but they ain't always a great way to compare teams. The best way is head to head matchups. Who have you beat? Those are the top teams.

What point are you trying to make by discrediting the Nike XC Town meet (you’re doing it in another thread as well)? It’s the same course as NXR MW. Look what Hinsdale averaged at NXR prior to finishing 8th at NXN. Look at the top team averages from Nike XC Town. Speed ratings are a guide. Any team up around 900 is a top 10 national contender

My point is Head-to-Head competitions should always come first, speed ratings come second. Speed ratings are good but it should never come first before head-to-head competition. Milesplit ranked Jesuit La and Carmel above Newbury Park last year because of this race's speed ratings (they were also saved a spot in the final top 10 final rankings). That is a huge honor, maybe even more of an honor than a podium finish at NXN. If Jesuit La and Carmel wanted to be ranked higher than Newbury Park, they should have come to Clovis Invitational to try beat Newbury Park.

I don’t think anyone is saying speed ratings in September, or results in September, are more important than an nxn finish. That’s why nxn, for the most part, decides the final national rankings.

Regardless of speed ratings, even throwing them out the window, you can look at results of a race at an established course and say if a team is good or not. It doesn’t mean they’ll win in December, but it means they have a chance. I would say cba herriman and AF have established themselves as a very strong top 3 in the country at this point (in whatever order you think). Belen Jesuit, SC, Great Oak, and a few others are not far behind at this point.

Rankings at the end of September mean nothing for what will happen on 12/2. That’s the fun of racing cross country.

NXN is Orem’s goal this year

dyestat.com

DyeStat.com - Videos - Austin Westfall 3rd Place Boys Elite 5K Race - Bob Firman Invitational 2023

Austin Westfall from Orem High in Utah ran 15:00.9 to place third in the boys elite 5-kilometer race at the Bob Firman Invitational at Eagle Island State Park in Boise, Idaho on Sept 23.

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totally agreed, in retrospect I am being too obsessive about this. I am just a huge fan of the sport, it really doesn't matter who ranks where and how high speed ratings are for one team over another. Everyone knows how well they performed and have something to be proud of in the end. Most people don't look so deep into this and not even the runners, most teams just look at their state placement, their league placement, and if they make nxn their national placement.

High school harriers rankings this week
Boys National Rankings
1. Herriman UT
2. American Fork UT
3. Southlake Carroll TX
4. Downers Grove IL
5. Belen Jesuit FL
6. Great Oak CA
7. Christian Brothers NJ
CBA is way too low here.
A little surprised that Downers Grove North is ranked this high
https://x.com/hsharrier/status/1706661284928774431?s=46&t=4X_vIt0aCPT4MRqC-dGiMw

Girls National Rankings
1. Air Academy CO
2. Niwot CO
3. Mt. Vista CO
4. JSerra CA
5. Buchanan CA
6. Union Catholic NE
7. Lone Peak UT
Wow. All top 3 are CO teams, and next 2 are CA teams. Crazy.
https://x.com/hsharrier/status/1706660778852434075?s=46&t=4X_vIt0aCPT4MRqC-dGiMw

boys

1. Herriman UT
2. American Fork UT
3. Christian Brothers NJ
4. Belen Jesuit FL
5. Southlake Carroll TX
6. Great Oak CA
7. Stevens Point WI
8. Ventura CA
9. Crater OR
10. Coeur d'Alene ID

girls

1. Niwot CO
2. Air Academy CO
3. Lone Peak UT
4. JSerra CA
5. Buchanan CA
6. Mountain Vista CO
7. Lucas Lovejoy TX
8. Cuthbertson NC
9. Southlake Carroll TX
10. Union Catholic NJ

Insane the last wild card from NXRSW is ranked 6th in the USA. Good for RLN, but I think this hurts NXRSW long term since the course is now slower than the one from the 2010's. Like the entire point of colorado teams with no chance going was to run Sea level prs. Desert twilight is definitely hurting this year because of the slower course.

Last wildcard was Air Academy- Vista didn't get a wild card, and didn't go to NXN