2019 girls Foot Locker predictions and discussion!

arunnery660 wrote:

Masciarelli is not a pack runner.

What do you base that on?

She hasn't shown that she likes to take the lead early

She didn't take the lead in Foot Locker last year or Foot Locker Regional this year

Maybe if she's in a race where she's clearly better than everyone else but that goes with all these girls

arunnery660 wrote:

Masciarelli is not a pack runner.

I didn't mean this to apply to Masciarelli as I have only seen her run 2 races...although in an interview a while ago, she did indicate that she likes to hang back at the beginning of races and then move up...personally I call that a pack runner. As opposed to someone who likes to take the race out hard at the beginning - Tuohy, Thorvaldson, Hart has before, Starliper used to.

This group of ladies at FL has no one defined person who is expected to set the pace...should be fun to watch as the race plans for each play out. Maybe Vandercooi, but I have never seen her run.

[quote]SlickWilly wrote:

NXN course is a lot harder than FL/quote]

Nx is mostly flat with small rollers, compared to FLN with steeper hills and more turns.

Dunderhead wrote:

[quote]SlickWilly wrote:

NXN course is a lot harder than FL/quote]

Nx is mostly flat with small rollers, compared to FLN with steeper hills and more turns.

NXN is on wet, soft grass. FL conditions are usually perfect. Look at the winning times in the 2 races. Not much difference.

What was her rating last week? Not 15 points higher than 2nd and 3rd. She is moving in the wrong direction.

3 years in a row she's clearly the best cross-country runner in the country

I agree the other girls are getting closer

We'll see how she does for track season but she was still clearly the best overall Runner about this cross-country season

Jedsdead wrote:

Did you seriously just say that Tuohy peaked a few weeks ago??

You are 100% right that everyone will peak at some point (not sure that really required clarification), but you are saying that you have the ability to know the exact moment that a 17 year old girl has peaked with absolutely no information to support it. In general, people who point out the peak of an athletes career will wait until they actually have some basis of fact...which unfortunately means waiting a sufficient amount of time and seeing a large number of competitive races.

Based on her winning margins AND the speed ratings, Tuohy peaked two years ago and has been getting slower since then.

astro wrote:

Yet no one has done it in three years. Each race is different. If people wanted a shot at her, they missed their opportunity. NXN was the big game this year. And it is not like the two you mention have been unbeatable this year. Starliper beat Masciarelli soundly and did not make the nxn podium. FL will be a good race. The rested runners will have an advantage.

Exactly, great points!

Katelyn Tuohy is the goat! People always feel the need to take cheap shots at the best!

Yeah her times of down a little bit but all girls go through that. All girls!

When she has an off-day she still pulls off a gutsy win

Other top girls have finished 50th at nxn when they have an off-day. She could still break 170 speed rating on a good day. No one else to show that they can get close. She was pushing up at was 180 but I bet you she gets back to that point in the future

SlickWilly wrote:

NXN course is a lot harder than FL

Dunderhead wrote:

Nx is mostly flat with small rollers, compared to FLN with steeper hills and more turns.

fastTuohy wrote:

NXN is on wet, soft grass. FL conditions are usually perfect. Look at the winning times in the 2 races. Not much difference.

Funny how you framed that, which could be said "Nx is on wet, soft grass, nearly perfect conditions. FLN has steeper hills, more turns, and a lead cart that kicks up dust and spews fumes at the runners." Granted the winning times are about the same. They're cross country courses, so either one of them is quite fine.

Ditto!

Dude I'm going to tell you something, Katelyn Tuohy is the greatest High School distance runner ever male or female

She has the course record at every course she has ever run at!

No other Runner is even close to doing this

Not only does she have the course record... but she has the top several times at all the courses she's run at more than once!!!

Including historic cross-country courses like Manhattan in Bowdoin Park

Manhattan she has the top two times ever!

Bowdoin Park is one of the most famous cross-country courses in New York state

She has the fastest eight times ever run there!

She has won every race from start to finish for the past 3 years

No one has ever done this before

Nico young had a great race but he raced with the pack for the first half mile

Tuohy has taken the lead from the gun at every cross-country race she has run for the last 3 years and except for one time she has won all the Races by at least 17 seconds

In three years time she had one close race, 1-17 second, and then every other race was greater than 20 seconds and usually upwards of 40 seconds to a minute and that's when top Elite Talent is in the race

We witnessed a once-in-a-lifetime achievement! No other Runner will ever dominate for three years straight like she did.

Yes she might have some Growing Pains, or track times might be a little down this season. But no one else has ever dominated distance running the way she has for the last three years male or female in the United States High School!

This is a great thread!

Wow I knew she was good but I had no idea that she has the course record at every course she has ever run at

And to lead every race from start to finish with three years is amazing!

I know she's the only girl with multiple speed ratings above 170!

I think she has about 10 or 12 speed ratings above 170

I don't think any other girl has more than one

Absolutely beautiful! Thanks for sharing. My eyes are getting Misty reading this. Just a beautiful thing!

Misty eyes wrote:

Puffer wrote:

This is a great thread!

Wow I knew she was good but I had no idea that she has the course record at every course she has ever run at

And to lead every race from start to finish with three years is amazing!

I know she's the only girl with multiple speed ratings above 170!

I think she has about 10 or 12 speed ratings above 170

I don't think any other girl has more than one

Absolutely beautiful! Thanks for sharing. My eyes are getting Misty reading this. Just a beautiful thing!

I picked up on this thread late but I just wanted to say thanks for this, great sentiments.

ha ha

Play Misty for Me

Actually ... wrote:

Jedsdead wrote:

Did you seriously just say that Tuohy peaked a few weeks ago??

You are 100% right that everyone will peak at some point (not sure that really required clarification), but you are saying that you have the ability to know the exact moment that a 17 year old girl has peaked with absolutely no information to support it. In general, people who point out the peak of an athletes career will wait until they actually have some basis of fact...which unfortunately means waiting a sufficient amount of time and seeing a large number of competitive races.

Based on her winning margins AND the speed ratings, Tuohy peaked two years ago and has been getting slower since then.

Please don't misunderstand me...I'm not arguing her speed ratings are lower on average, not that the winning margins are smaller. Other girls are getting better so the margins should shrink...but she is still a mile ahead of them, and that's not disrespecting any of the other girls. ..they are absolutely top notch.

Speed rating on the other hand are a very useful tool, but they cannot measure how hard someone ran in a race. Tuohy has not had to run a full out race this year (not counting NXN). Could her races have been 10 - 20 seconds faster? I have no doubt. So just looking at a speed rating really isn't accurate for her. Once she gets to college and is pushed every race, then we will get a good indication of where she is at.

I think this was posted in another thread earlier, but I got to say those stats are mind-boggling...for the life of me I can't understand why some people are so eager to try and find negative things about her.

She is special.

Should be a great race. My money's on Ewert after that impressive showing at NXN.

Just be aware, Dudek is 3-0 vs Ewert this season, beating her at the Michigan State Spartan XC Festival, NXR Midwest and FL Midwest.

If Ewert runs well but the winner is one of the non-NXN girls (Masciarelli, Dudek, Vanderkooi), then there will be legitimate debate regarding who really was #1.

Footlocker is number 1. Dudek and Masciarelli would both beat Tuohy.