TUOHY ANY COMPETITION THIS XC SEASON

I respect what Touhy has accomplished in her fairly short career but some people may not grasp the huge difference between most elite hs performances and making an Olympic team or even the trials. Touhy is a long way from actually making the trial standard which I think is around 15:20. To do that she will probably have to lower her middle distance PRs substantially and these were well over a year ago. Occasionally, there have been hs runners who have reached that level--most recently Sydney McLaughlin in the 400 m hurdles but it very rare these days in track and field but apparently quite common in swimming.

fastTuohy wrote:

Indoor? wrote:

Ewert did get beat by Zofia Dudek yesterday at the MSU Spartan Invite, 17:08 for Dudek who also ran 4:41 to win the Brooks PR Mile last spring. Dudek is a beast as sounds like conditions were tough there yesterday.

Milesplit is reporting that Brynn Brown ran a 16:12 5K in TX today? Anyone know about that?

Unless the course is a big net downhill, the course is absolutely short, There are only 4-5 athletes in U.S. history capale of running that fast on any type of 5000 kilometer course. If the courese is legit, Tuohy will have competition this year.

Very True, most distance runners don't peak until 24-28. I truly hope people will be patient with her. She has an engine, but needs biomechanical/neuromuscular work. Too much time on the ground.

That sounds about right. Very rarely, a genuine distance running prodigy comes around. Back in the 80s, Zola Budd ran 15:01 to break the WR in the 5000 at 17. I believe she still has the world junior 3000 record in 8:28 and won cross country worlds around that time, always running barefoot. Mostly a freak of nature though.

TrackCoach wrote:

fastTuohy wrote:

Milesplit is reporting that Brynn Brown ran a 16:12 5K in TX today? Anyone know about that?

Unless the course is a big net downhill, the course is absolutely short, There are only 4-5 athletes in U.S. history capale of running that fast on any type of 5000 kilometer course. If the courese is legit, Tuohy will have competition this year.

Of course you didn't mean 5000 kilometers, as that's essentially running across the US, but she did run 16:25 for 5000 this past March. If the Woodbridge Invitational was extended to 5K I could see her getting close to that 16:12.

How many boys have run a 9:57 2 mile that could also run 16:12 for 5k? I realize the track is faster than most "true" XC courses.

Accuracy News Flash wrote:

CoachHammel wrote:

I've coached for 10 years, we take a wheel around 60% of the time(based on if we remember it) and usually there are 4-5 other coaches each meet with a wheel.

Wheels are NOT accurate, and ALWAYS over estimate the course distance.

Plus, did you calibrate the wheel? I'm pretty sure that you didn't, or if you did, you didn't do it properly.

Yes, it was calibrated and is not that hard to do---properly. The course was 200+ short.

TrackCoach wrote:

fastTuohy wrote:

Milesplit is reporting that Brynn Brown ran a 16:12 5K in TX today? Anyone know about that?

Unless the course is a big net downhill, the course is absolutely short, There are only 4-5 athletes in U.S. history capale of running that fast on any type of 5000 kilometer course. If the courese is legit, Tuohy will have competition this year.

The course is accurate to within 10 meters, I've wheeled it more than once and so have many others. Obviously you aren't from Texas and don't know the course, hence your jealous comment about Brynn.

Zola probably around 190 speed rating

Kev2 wrote:

I respect what Touhy has accomplished in her fairly short career but some people may not grasp the huge difference between most elite hs performances and making an Olympic team or even the trials. Touhy is a long way from actually making the trial standard which I think is around 15:20. To do that she will probably have to lower her middle distance PRs substantially and these were well over a year ago. Occasionally, there have been hs runners who have reached that level--most recently Sydney McLaughlin in the 400 m hurdles but it very rare these days in track and field but apparently quite common in swimming.

She ran 15.37 alone so I don’t think 15.20 in a race is totally far-fetched to aim for - and if she doesn’t make it she will have many more chances if she’s still running, given her youth. I don’t think it is bad to try, assuming training is done properly and without injury then if she falls short there’s really nothing to lose

I agree there is no cost to trying. At the very least, it will be a learning experience if she gets to tangle with some of the pros. Having said that, there seem to be an usually talented crop of hs runners this year so she may actually have company.

Actually Taylor Ewart has the best chance of anyone of advancing to the Games--in the racewalk though

TrackCoach wrote:

fastTuohy wrote:

Milesplit is reporting that Brynn Brown ran a 16:12 5K in TX today? Anyone know about that?

Unless the course is a big net downhill, the course is absolutely short, There are only 4-5 athletes in U.S. history capale of running that fast on any type of 5000 kilometer course. If the courese is legit, Tuohy will have competition this year.

Well, Jarrett Kirk ran a 15:05 at the Marcus I Invitational back on August 31 (listed 5K). He finished 2nd to junior Judson Greer (4:14/9:06 PRs) who won 15:01. That was listed as a 5K. Thomas ran a 15:16. The girl's race was a 3-mile, where Gracie Morris won in 16:51. For comparison, Natalie Cook (#3 finisher seen below at this race), finished 3rd in 17:03. Allison Buemi (#5 finisher below), ran 17:24.

I don't know if this race was a 5K or not, but Kirk ran a 14:40, and Thomas ran 14:53. Either the conditions were fantastic, or it was probably short by a little. Nevertheless, Brynn ran a phenomenal time and race. Absolutely mind blowing she's been crushing every field by about a minute each time.

PRs for the #2-8 placers

#2 17:30 - 5:19/11:45 (wow, talk about improvement)

#3 17:37 - 4:50 /10:24

#4 17:57 - 5:20/11:25

#5 17:58 - 5:08/10:57

#6 17:58 - 5:11/10:58 (1600m/3000m as an 8th grader)

#7 17:59 - 5:21/11:20

#8 18:00 - 5:15

#9 18:02 - 5:03/10:57

#10 18:15 - 5:05/10:56

We'll have to see more races (Brynn some of the other top girls would be amazing).

RandomXCObserver wrote:

Pretty sure Speed Ratings compare runners to runners not runners to courses.

Yep.

Speed rating is a ratio of velocities (or inverse ratio of course times).

SR_i = 100 x V_i/V_m = 100 x (D/T_i)/(D/T_m) = 100 x T_m/T_i

where i = individual runner being measured

m = median runner in the race that day. (Median is middle person in race - 50/100, 20/40, etc.)

So if SR = 150 , that person's velocity was 50% faster than the median. (And the median time was 50% slower).

There is not much theory to it, except that there should be many runners near the median,

so the median time should have a low variance.

And the median time is not sensitive to the fastest or slowest runners.

It may be able to adjust for weather and course conditions, since those should affect both the person

being measured and the median runner proportionally.

congrats to Brynn Brown on that amazing opening time. She was an 18th place finisher at Footlocker last year. Let's see how Masciarelli opens up this weekend at the Canterbury Invitational. Her first ever varsity xc race in 2018 she ran a 17:04.

Kev2 wrote:

I agree there is no cost to trying. At the very least, it will be a learning experience if she gets to tangle with some of the pros. Having said that, there seem to be an usually talented crop of hs runners this year so she may actually have company.

There is a huge cost in trying. Trying may end her career. The type of training you'd need to do to feel like it's worth it to compete at the trials is not what she needs right now long term. She probably has already burned her body out with the way she races and trains super hard but she'd have to go another level up to even think about the trials. She should go to college, enjoy being a stud there and continue to develop. If those things went well she would have a small chance in 2024, but that is better than no chance in 2020 and forever after that.

She doesn't need to do a sports movie training montage to try to go to the trials. She is likely continuing to train in the same pattern as the last 2 years. Her coach holds her back from overtraining. She has not had any significant injuries. She clearly does lots of general conditioning to be strong and have good form. IMO she is probably one of the least likely to develop an injury that takes her out. Most likely she will continue to have gradual improvement.

donairs wrote:

She doesn't need to do a sports movie training montage to try to go to the trials. She is likely continuing to train in the same pattern as the last 2 years. Her coach holds her back from overtraining. She has not had any significant injuries. She clearly does lots of general conditioning to be strong and have good form. IMO she is probably one of the least likely to develop an injury that takes her out. Most likely she will continue to have gradual improvement.

What makes you think that?

Her and her coaches say that she has to be held back all the time and that her perfect day is running 10 miles and spending a few hours at the gym. So you're right no chance she trains too hard...

Right now she's at the tail end of window that 99% of teenage girls have where they can train super hard and have a very low injury risk. That window ends and you have to start training smarter and being more patient, but you do eventually get better provided you didn't utterly destroy your body in that time frame. She has likely already destroyed her body(see Mary Cain, Sarah Baxter, the list goes on an on) but given the chance that she hasn't continuing to push for the trials will almost assure that she does.

...sunny optimism. And I do think that having a little bit of muscle is protective, and shows that she eats well.