The Monday Big Discussion: After 31:55 10k Win in Stanford, how do you assess Gwen Jorgensen's Olympic chances?

I think she just wants to make big bucks. Tri's don't pay but marathons do. She just made Jerry's team so all of her financial goals are coming true. She knows she won't ever medal in the Oly Marathon. Just making the team would make her financially well off due to big endorsements.

Bib #1 wrote:

I don't see her making the marathon team. She's too big (tall) and doesn't look too relaxed when running (high arm carriage).

This is absolutely preposterous. I'm not sure what specific point you're trying to make about her form but your parenthetical leads me to believe you have never watched elite women contest the marathon distance.

Cottonshirt wrote:

is anyone able to identify the shoes that Karissa Schweizer is wearing.

thank you.

http://cdn.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Talbotcox-Stanford-19.jpg

Can't answer your question but let's take a moment to appreciate how adorable she is.

Zero chances

Bad toothache wrote:

Zero chances

I agree with the zero chance scenario. - However if a US female is to medal at a distance event in the Olympics then the marathon is one of the best chances due to talent withdrawal from Ethiopian and Kenyan athletes due to the focus being on a payday. Having said this, Im pretty sure we`ll see Tirunesh Dibaba running the marathon in Tokyo. representing her country is important to her add the lure of an Olympic gold in the marathon to compliment her 5000m & 10000m golds makes her pretty good odds to show. Same for Viv Cheryuiot.

The 10000m for women is already sewn up unless Ayana is injured.

Well I do think part of it can be chalked up to her style, I do agree that she doesn't look relaxed. Her shoulders look very tense

Brownlee is 8.56% slower than WR

Jorgensen is 8.99% slower than WR.

I rest my case.

Cottonshirt wrote:

is anyone talking about Allie Kiefer any more?

is she not in the frame for Tokyo?

cheers.

Currently hurt and will not be running at London. We'll see what happens when she comes back from injury. Hope to her race in the fall.

hokay wrote: Can't answer your question but let's take a moment to appreciate how adorable she is.

well, yes, the thing I noticed about the lovely miss Schweizer was her arm action. you can't see it very well in this picture but if you watch video of her you can see that her right arm just flaps about a bit off to one side, as though it would far rather be anywhere but on the track with her. it reminds me a bit of old Deek Castella who had a similar thing going on with his left arm, but it doesn't seem to have done either of them any harm.

then you come on a thread like this one where some small-minded dullards say that Jorgensen's arm action rules her out of contention for the olympic marathon and you have to wonder if these folks have ever actually watched any runners before. whenever I read comments like that I always think of Chris Solinsky. everyone said he was too tall, too heavy and too white to break 27:00 for 10k but on that night in 2010 in Palo Alto when the world's press was eagerly awaiting the coronation of Emperor Rupp of Oregon it was the tall, fat white boy no one noticed or rated who smacked one down and I love watching that video to reaffirm my belief that running is the sport for outliers. the odd, the strange, the misfits, anyone who doesn't fit the mould can find a home in track because the clock doesn't care how attractive or symmetrical you are, how many followers you have on Twitter or which brand of b**llocks you peddle on your blog, all it cares about is how long it takes before you run out of guts.

to misquote Dustin Hoffmann, "everything else is just pretty bubbles."

cheers.

epicTCK wrote:

Coffee Monster wrote:

Good riddance people!!! Are you serious? She has a "cheat day" after a hard, long race with her family and you are drawing conclusions from this one fact? You are ignorant.

YOU will NEVER win an oly gold with THAT MENTALITY

THE GRIND NEVER STOPS

Hey dumb @ss, she already has an Olympic gold.

Cheers!

Anyone remember this? 3rd place at US 10 mile champs. Shortly after the Olympics, while still in full-on tri training mode:

https://www.flotrack.org/results/5986086-2016-usatf-10-mile-championships/580

So you are calling Gwen a liar? She's stated numerous times she is not in sport for the money or she would have stayed in Tri. She was the biggest name there ever was for US women competing in Tri. She could have been mega rich if she went up to the long course. " I talked to my husband, Pat, and I said I could stay in it because I could make better money this year. We both laughed because there’s no reason to stay in this sport for a financial decision. In the sporting world, I think you need to be motivated and willing to put in that work every day. It didn’t seem that my motivation was in the right spot to be able to do that."https://www.si.com/edge/2018/04/02/gwen-jorgensen-triathlon-track-debut-marathon-goals-nike

Show Me the Money wrote:

I think she just wants to make big bucks. Tri's don't pay but marathons do. She just made Jerry's team so all of her financial goals are coming true. She knows she won't ever medal in the Oly Marathon. Just making the team would make her financially well off due to big endorsements.

Thx Flotrack

Back to Brownlee wrote:

Brownlee is 8.56% slower than WR

Jorgensen is 8.99% slower than WR.

I rest my case.

You forgot to add a percentage point for the fact that doping assists the women's WR more than it does the men's. Advantage Jorgensen. (plus Gwen won her race whereas Brownlee was towed by the others).

... particularly since everyone once dismissed Usain Bolt's chances as a sprinter due to his height.

this and this wrote:

.

In 2017 , 48 women broke 2:25 for the marathon. 22 Ethiopinans, 19 Kenyans, 3 from Japan, 2 from Burundi, one from Mexico and one from the USA. The odds of one of the 6 Kenyans and Ethiopians at the 2020 Olympics winning gold will be high.

Running is much deeper and more competitive than triathlons. Many of the best marathoners come from the African continent, and how big are triathlons in Africa?

.

The one from Mexico, is a real Mexican or imported Kenyan? I see many countries importing talent. Kind if defeats the national competition point of the Olympics.

Also, remember she came from ITU triathlon and not slow long distance tri. It is a different beast. If you lag on the swim you are done, as for the bike too. In the long distance championships, you can get away with weaknesses in on of the legs

Man this is a beautiful post. Reading this was better than porn.

Ok. There are some great posts on here. The type of stuff I wanted to see. The best one is the one I list first as I was wondering if she'd improve a lot or a little coming from the triathlon. I mean yes she is new to running full time but she's been training at a really high volume in other sports. So I loved this post.

Moving on.

Nice point. Paula was the GOAT for the marathon and she is relatively tall for a woman 5'8 vs 5'10.

Yes. When I say zero chance, I want to be clear, there is clearly not a zero chance. I'm just multiplying her chances by 2 and rounding to the nearest whole digit. Weldon and you are right, that tiny sliver is what makes it interesting.

If she makes the team, she then has to beat 6 Kenyans/Ethiopians that likely will all be better than her. So what are the odds of them screwing it up? I'd say normally of the 6 spots, the federations will totally butcher at least one. So lets' say she only has to beat 5 good women. I'd say there is at most a 33% chance they butcher their training. So what are the odds that all 5 butcher their training? .39%

So 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 x 1/3 = 0.39% of that happenening. But then what are her odds of making the US team. I'd say less than 50%.

Hasay - stud. Huddle - stud. Cragg - stud. Flanagan stud. Sisson -stud in my mind. Davila - etc.

I always get a kick when someone says that an athlete has little chance of achieving their goal which of course fuels them to achieve that goal. I think it was Benji Durden told by a High School Coach that he had no chance of succeeding as a distance runner.

Somehow I would not doubt an Olympic Champion.