Agreed -- wonder if the framing was more can a dedicated male runner run 15:xx for 5k without talent. 15:01 & 15:59 are different. I feel like someone that runs with consistency for a decade from 20-30 should be able to come close to 15:59. 16:00 feels like a cut line to me. Some runners can get there very quickly. Others might come pretty close if they stick with it for a while. I think some people will just never break 15:00 no matter how much they love the sport and train.
I think way too aggressive. I’m not sure this board full rationalizes how much athletic talent self selects for… well… athletics.
This is all anecdotal obviously but I know a good number of people who were multiple sport varsity athletes in high school, put in decent mileage and 5k specific training and still can’t crack 16. Maybe I’m an outlier here but the idea that 50% of the male population on the US (or globally) can crack 16 is so obviously ludicrous it isn’t even worth discussing. I would put the over under at like 17:30-18 and even that might be pushing it.
Do you think that with the right training and diet etc, be it long as needed, any average shmo that doesn't have any special physical problems, can get to 15 minutes for 5K?
No. Look at any open 5km race: very few break 15mins.
It is well beyond the ability of most who lack the determination to put in the training and ability to push themselves enough to run that fast.
If every male trained like a pro (and let's exclude PEDs) and dedicated his life to running, I think the median would be mid 15s. Many hobbyjoggers will work out once per day and think that's all they need.
If you start training someone (like Jakob did) at 8 and gradually progress, 15:30 is a reasonable midpoint.
Wrong. The median for all males, all ages who train seriously is about 29 minutes. That's the recorded average time for 5k parkruns in the UK for males. Females is about 33 minutes.
Do you think that with the right training and diet etc, be it long as needed, any average shmo that doesn't have any special physical problems, can get to 15 minutes for 5K?
Define your terms.
"Average schmo" meaning mid-pack runner at a D3 cross country meet? Then probably yes. Better training, commitment, focus, diet, and such, he could do it.
"Average schmo" meaning cross-section of America? Then 100% no. If I let you coach 500 people from my neighborhood, none would run sub-15 because they are normal people.
Probably a mid-pack D3 guy could get to high 15:xx, but 15 flat guys are toward the top of the race in D3. I think it still requires a certain level of talent. You probably have to be able to run 4:30 or so in the mile to hit 15 flat in the 5k, and not all D3 guys can hit that.
Off the top of my head, 15 minutes for 5K is equal to a baseball pitcher throwing about a 87 or 88 mile per hour fastball. Can the average guy train to throw 87 or 88 mile per hour fastball? No! About the same chance as finding guys who can run 15 minutes 5K.
To everyone whining about body types not allowing them to do it... are you kidding me? Yeah, no f*ckin sh*t, a fatty isn't going to run 15 flat in the 5k.
But I think that anyone who starts training at 14 (high school freshman) can eventually run it. Bringing up women's times... ok well there's this thing that men possess call the Y chromosome. If you take a kid and put him on ACTUAL mileage through high school (we're talking get up to 65-70 in the summer before senior year) he should be running at least 10:15 in the two mile. I mean anyone. No one is IMMUNE to aerobic training, capillaries WILL grow, efficiency WILL improve, and times WILL drop.
To all the kids "working their ass*s off" who can't break 15 in college, they either: did not do ample mileage in high school to prepare themselves, cannot get there due to frequent injury, or (most often) not training correctly. If you get to that 70mpw in HS, there's no reason you don't get to 90-100mpw in college. Stay healthy, have even a decent training plan, don't be a b*tch, and you'll run 15 flat.
You are absolutely kidding. I was an OK club runner in England (ran for the county - equivalent to the state here - at x-country and track) and won a lot of 5k road races when I moved to the U.S., right up to my mid-50s, and have also placed in USATF Masters at 3000m s/c, 3000m indoors and 5000m.
I ran 1:57.5 for 800,, 4:20 for a mile and 15:20 for 5000m (I did finally crack 15:00 age graded in my 50s). I was running in England during the running boom, and ran in the National Road Relay Championships, and over 3 miles on that day would have made more that two-thirds of the top 50 teams in England (there were so many teams that it required regional qualifying to even get there).
So whilst admittedly, sub-sub elite, I was still in the upper 30% of serious, hard-training club runners (these were racing clubs, not running/jogging clubs), and was still a fair bit outside 15:00 5K.
So if all these people, who self-selected by having a predilection for distance running, were training hard and seriously for competition, and not breaking 15:00, how do you think you are going to get the average 'schmo' to run 4:50 per mile for 3 consecutive miles.
The OP might mean "average runner friends that I know and train with but who haven't broken 16 yet." If that is the group, then yes.
If you ask the drug-users of the world, "how often does the average person do 'shrooms?" They might say, "uh, like once a month?" The real answer is "never."
People are way too trapped in their social/cultural bubbles.
I’ll repost something that I put on another recent thread…but it applies equally as much here…
“It seems perplexing to me that many wannabe “elite” runners (and bodybuilders or athletes of most sports for that matter) ie those who start an activity with big dreams of being great, but without the knowledge or self evaluation skills to realise that perhaps it’s not in the cards for them, haven’t realised what animal breeders have realised for countless years. Of course genetics matter. Otherwise why would breeders go to great lengths in order to breed the fastest horses or dogs. Don’t believe me? Then I’ll wager a prize winning greyhound against any Spaniel you can find, and even let you train them for a year. Genetics trump training of any kind. It’s that simple. No ordinary nag can be trained to win the Derby.”
Totally -- I don't think 50% of the male population would come close to that time. I reframed to ask what the cut line is for a runner who puts in the training. Where can someone get to who doesn't come to the sport with natural talent. I threw out 16:00. You think something slower? It's fair I know plenty of people 16-mid. Their training doesn't look any different from what people running 14 or 15 min 5ks are doing minus the paces they can handle. & they've been going at it for years.
I’ve seen what deemed to be average runners run extraordinary times later in their careers with excellent and consistent training. Talking mega mileage which only their bodies could endure so I guess talent is a factor there in staying injury free and not breaking down. But, even when those guys were horribly hopeless at ever being good those guys could still dust the entire gym class and lap guys in the mile.
You have a wide variety of body types in the US you got guys who are simply too large framed who are better off as basketball players. You got guys who are extremely fast twitch oriented who can get off the couch and run 11 seconds in the 100m. You got guys whose hips are are wider that their shoulders and have like 38 inch waists just based on bone structure. There’s guys that just don’t have cardiovascular talent who look like they’re in shape but can’t ever move faster than 8 min/ per mile pace.
I’d say the ceiling of the average American if you put them all in a blender is around 18:30. Which isn’t too bad. there would be some outlier joes who would be near that 15 mark, but then you’d get guys with miserable genetics maxing out at 23 minutes, which again would still be respectable for what their working with
Do guys "deemed to be average runners"="average shmos"???
I know a few guys who were goofy dorky unathletic types in 9th grade who couldn't break 20 mins go on to become sub 15 in college while some decent HS runners (9:40 types) couldn't while other ones went on to go sub 14. I know this doesn't help answer the OPs question but it is a phenomenon I've observed which suggests some unpredictability to one's potential.