So Sick: Casey Clinger just ran 8:54 at 4,500 feet of altitude!! Crushed field and won by 25+ seconds.

fdsfsdfasdf wrote:

OGGOD!! wrote:

Well it appears that American Fork guys are going to lay the hammer down. Rumor has it C.Clinger, Mckay Johns and Patrick Parker will show no mercy. Say good buy to any 4xmile or 4x1600 national record if they want it. Gonna be a long season here in Utah.

4 for the price of 1? Good buy!

But it sounds like a lot of talk.

Think your bringing up no forth man? If they want the national 4xmile I put my money on their coach to come up with a 4th. AF team does not talk, this is just the rumor mill of idiots like me. We just aren't sure what their goals are this year. I've been an opposing coach for years. At a meet I can walk right up to them and say "Hey u guys go easy on us today!." They all smile and say Ok coach, how is Kathy doin, heard she was hurt? Their coach is the same, I can walk right up and ask anything, they all seem like they are having a blast.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

Been there, done that wrote:

Or maybe you're triggered because you're not a faster runner than you already are at sea level? There's definitely a reason the NCAA gives a significant conversion for altitude, whether you think it's too generous or not (& it might be, though I doubt it)?

Well, I have no doubt that it is faster to run at sea level than it is at altitude.

I just want to see if the conversions are based on good research.

The person said come back with statistics and data instead of anecdote.

I agree it should be based on statistics and data.

Where are they?

All my PRs have been run at sea-level so no need for conversion. I have no skin in this game. I'm not sure why you had to attack me personally. I guess it's because you can formulate a coherent response based on logic and fact.

The NCAA conversions are calculated by W.C. Davis a professor at UC Davis. He's been publishing in the field for over 30 years. His data, like the data for 99.99% of other researchers, aren't public so you won't find it on google. You should email him if you disagree with his conversions. I'm sure he'd also love to hear pizzafaces theories on how athletes living at altitude are "fully adjusted" and therefore won't run faster at sea-level.

While you are at it you should also email Jack Daniels and tell him he also doesn't know what he's talking about because pizzaface from lets run choked at his sea level race and failed to run 15:05 despite what the calculator told him he could do. This may well be the first instance in history of athlete under performing relative to what the conversion calculators predicted. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if 5 years from now there is a Nobel prize in science awarded to pizzaface and Mr. obvious based on the theories developed in this thread.

OGGOD!! wrote:

fdsfsdfasdf wrote:

4 for the price of 1? Good buy!

But it sounds like a lot of talk.

Think your bringing up no forth man? If they want the national 4xmile I put my money on their coach to come up with a 4th. AF team does not talk, this is just the rumor mill of idiots like me. We just aren't sure what their goals are this year. I've been an opposing coach for years. At a meet I can walk right up to them and say "Hey u guys go easy on us today!." They all smile and say Ok coach, how is Kathy doin, heard she was hurt? Their coach is the same, I can walk right up and ask anything, they all seem like they are having a blast.

Is anybody really worried about AF's ability to find a fourth man? Those top three runners will all be in 4:05 shape (or better) by Arcadia. That takes a huge load off their fourth. They also have two guys already hitting 4:30 in the 1600 at altitude. They will not only break the record, that'll smash it.

They need to have 4 guys at an average of 4:09 shape to break it. Not likely to smash it if they can even break it.

yet another HS coach wrote:

NotReallyWorried wrote:

Is anybody really worried about AF's ability to find a fourth man? Those top three runners will all be in 4:05 shape (or better) by Arcadia. That takes a huge load off their fourth. They also have two guys already hitting 4:30 in the 1600 at altitude. They will not only break the record, that'll smash it.

They need to have 4 guys at an average of 4:09 shape to break it. Not likely to smash it if they can even break it.

Why do you say that? The GO record is 16:52.9 (or a 4:13.X average). If the top 3 go 4:05 (or 8sec under), that gives Mr. 4 an additional 24sec to work with or, put another way, a goal of 4:37.

Will everyone run their best race? No. But the AF kids are pretty consistent in their performances and 4:05 is likely a conservative estimate for Clinger. Mr. 4 (likely the younger Clinger) will likely run in the low 4:20s (4:21-4:23 range).

That's my calculus, but mwyb I'm overlooking something.

yet another HS coach wrote:

NotReallyWorried wrote:

Is anybody really worried about AF's ability to find a fourth man? Those top three runners will all be in 4:05 shape (or better) by Arcadia. That takes a huge load off their fourth. They also have two guys already hitting 4:30 in the 1600 at altitude. They will not only break the record, that'll smash it.

They need to have 4 guys at an average of 4:09 shape to break it. Not likely to smash it if they can even break it.

Last year in the 1600 GO had:

Isaac Cortes 04:04.0

Spencer Dodds 04:05.5

Cole Spencer 04:08.7

Solomon Fountain 04:10.3

It won't be an easy record to break.

To all those saying the conversion is way too much, here are all of the boys from Utah who ran under 9:45 in the 3200 at Arcadia last year, with their arcadia time/ altitude sb/ difference between the two. I think the results speak for themselves. Not everyone ran faster, but it averaged out to close to the NCAA conversion rate.

Casey Clinger 8:50/ 9:02/ 12

Garek Bielacyz 9:00/ 9:18/ 18

Will Handley 9:04/ 9:07/ 3

Connor Arnell 9:07/ 9:27/ 20

Travis Feeney 9:09/ 9:19/ 10

Zack Ericksen 9:09/ 9:14/ 5

Joe Benson 9:11/ 9:23/ 12

Jamison Wilkes 9:12/ 9:23/ 11

Garret Barton 9:13/ 9:11/ -2

Denver Perry 9:14/ 9:42/ 28

Ryan Raff 9:14/ 9:26/ 12

Joe Simmons 9:15/ 9:18/ 3

Ethan Field 9:17/ 9:18/ 1

Adam wood 9:26/ 9:37/ 11

Frasier Williamson 9:27/ 9:36/ 9

Thomas Heaps 9:27/ 9:31/ 4

Adam Jensen 9:28/ 9:31/ 3

Camren Todd 9:29/ 9:44/ 15

Colton Rimman 9:33/ 9:33/ 0

Matt Ward 9:31/ 9:37/ 6

Daniel Tumblin 9:41/ 9:54/ 13

Michael Hinckley 9:43/ 9:51/ 8

Average drop in time from Altitude to sea level: 9.2 seconds

First off, I am glad to see that you still follow the sport. Assuming you are who I think you are, we ran against each other twice. The problem I have with altitude conversions is the fact they don't work equally for athletes.

heyyo wrote:

While you are at it you should also email Jack Daniels and tell him he also doesn't know what he's talking about because pizzaface from lets run choked at his sea level race and failed to run 15:05 despite what the calculator told him he could do. This may well be the first instance in history of athlete under performing relative to what the conversion calculators predicted. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if 5 years from now there is a Nobel prize in science awarded to pizzaface and Mr. obvious based on the theories developed in this thread.

Heyyo is definitely triggered. Heyyo, you should actually read what I wrote and not invent my arguments for me.

If Mr. UC Davis wants to publish his research -- you know, like 99.99% of real researchers -- then I'd read it with an open mind. Empirical evidence suggests 5s for the mile and 20s for 5k are awfully generous conversions. That's all anyone here is saying.

Great. Now use sea-level runners as a control group and do it again.

Actually, you should use *recent* results to compare against Arcadia, not non-Arcadia SBs. Say +/- 2 weeks. You'll find that virtually everyone runs faster at Arcadia.

OGGOD!! wrote:

fdsfsdfasdf wrote:

4 for the price of 1? Good buy!

But it sounds like a lot of talk.

Think your bringing up no forth man? If they want the national 4xmile I put my money on their coach to come up with a 4th. AF team does not talk, this is just the rumor mill of idiots like me. We just aren't sure what their goals are this year. I've been an opposing coach for years. At a meet I can walk right up to them and say "Hey u guys go easy on us today!." They all smile and say Ok coach, how is Kathy doin, heard she was hurt? Their coach is the same, I can walk right up and ask anything, they all seem like they are having a blast.

Your post is mostly illegible, but no, I'm poking fun at his use of "good buy."

frytter wrote:

yet another HS coach wrote:

They need to have 4 guys at an average of 4:09 shape to break it. Not likely to smash it if they can even break it.

Last year in the 1600 GO had:

Isaac Cortes 04:04.0

Spencer Dodds 04:05.5

Cole Spencer 04:08.7

Solomon Fountain 04:10.3

It won't be an easy record to break.

And on "race day" that group went:

Solomon Fountain 4:17.6,

Cole Spencer 4:09.9,

Isaac Cortes 4:12.0,

Spencer Dodds 4:13.5

I don't meant to cast any shadows or disrespect the GO record. I just think the reality of the top-3 AF guys (in terms of talent, ability, and consistency) is such that the record will be comfortably broken.

This weekend's UVU invite should give a good indication of where the group is at. Clinger and Johns are running the 1600 and Parker is doing the 800.

NotReallyWorried wrote:

Last year in the 1600 GO had:

Isaac Cortes 04:04.0

Spencer Dodds 04:05.5

Cole Spencer 04:08.7

Solomon Fountain 04:10.3

It won't be an easy record to break.

And on "race day" that group went:

Solomon Fountain 4:17.6,

Cole Spencer 4:09.9,

Isaac Cortes 4:12.0,

Spencer Dodds 4:13.5

I don't meant to cast any shadows or disrespect the GO record. I just think the reality of the top-3 AF guys (in terms of talent, ability, and consistency) is such that the record will be comfortably broken.

This weekend's UVU invite should give a good indication of where the group is at. Clinger and Johns are running the 1600 and Parker is doing the 800.[/quote]

But my point was that guys won't necessarily run anywhere near their best times in a relay where they are essentially doing a solo time trial. And all it takes is for one guy to have a slow run to blow any shot at a record.

If AF can pull it off, more power to them - I just think that record might not be as soft as you think.

I did not attack you or insult you and I am sorry somebody else did.

I thank you for the information. I git one step farther in figuring out how the conversion is determined.

If the formula or the data is not public, I don't think it is possible to come to any sort of conclusion about whether the current adjustments are very good or not.

That does not mean prof. Davis is not a brilliant man. I'm sure he is much brighter than I am.

Dude, that's not sick, it's, like, radically ill, bruh.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

I did not attack you or insult you and I am sorry somebody else did.

You shouldn't be. Heyyo was being a d!ck to other posters. He's either triggered or just a d!ck all the time.

Clinger drops a 4:07 at UVU in the freakin big wind.

One of the other AF guys was second with a 4:10.

Just some skeptics are saying so, most reasonable people with a modicum of understanding agree that the NCAA standards are actually based on science and research.

Add coach Joe Vigil too. He and Daniels were around for the early work.