Centro vs Fernandez over 1500m?

Herb Elliot ran a 4:08.8 mile with a 52.8 last 440 (52.5 400) in March of 1958.

This was on a torn up track of five laps to a mile.

His best time at that point was 3:58.7, followed two months later with 3:57.8.

Five months in August 1958 he ran the 3:54.5 WR in Dublin.

The point is that a fast kick in a slow race does not translate well to a fast pace all the way.

What??? wrote:

wheating what wrote:

Yeah but that was his kick in a 3:51 race...Fernandez never runs a tactical race.

I guess you missed that 3:36.9 victory with the kick... thats a different level from anything Fernandez could dream to run this year...

This is a joke right? 3:36.9 is almost EXACTLY equivalent to a 3:55 mile. Centro beat a much better field with a more impressive kick, but come on man "better than Fernandez could dream to run?" Is the math that hard for you?

Poster Formerly Known asGoober wrote:

Was German's 3:42 last weekend all out or did he pull back to save himself for the 5000m later that night? I know Lubbock is at some altitude (3300'?) but still, if this was an all out run, he is suprisingly far from his indoor fitness.

3:42 in Lubbock converts to a 3:38.x 1500 at sea-level.

I think Centro has the hot hand right now.

And even at that he is a bit of a mystery...he's run a second plus faster than Fernandez, and did not seem tested.

It cold be a very exciting final.

As for Fernandez, he seems to have been dodging races all year in which he would have a chance to win; while facing competition.

It will be a big test for him, generally guys who don't run in traffic alot, falter in these big meets.

Centro has proven he can run in traffic. The only thing he hasn't proven is that he can win from the front. But that may be something he never needs to prove...as more races are won from the pack than wire to wire. Fernandez has some flashy time trials in a small time conference...we'll see if he can really do it running around other people.

This thread reminds of all the rediculous talk of Wheating having the best shot of medaling at Beijing because of his amazing kick and because championship 800's are tactical. And then what happened? He tanked in the first round in a tactical race. A good 100 meter kick is not the end all to end all. If it was Centro would be the indoor mile champ right now. Instead, he finished back in the pack to people with less speed and even slower PR's.

Look at the facts Oregon lovers. Centro bairly managed to beat Rupp(not even a miler) and Wheating(the man, myth, the legend, but mostly the myth). That doesn't make him a proven racer any more than Fernandez. They both lack in that department. But from reading through this thread you would think Centro has already beaten Lagat or something.

Stop smoking that weed Oregon fans!

I think it's funny how you guys call GF races Time Trials? They were not TT's the other guys were just pussies for not trying to run with him. He simply RAN AWAY from them!!

All of these guys had a chance to beat GF when they raced him Indoors, and they couldn't do it. It's not GF's fault that he blew by those guys, is it?

As far as Centro running a 51.8? well he should off of that 4:15 mile pace!! Alan Webb ran the back end of a mile race in 1:52 while still in HS! Centro is the man right now, but lets wait and see if he is able to hold his peak for another 3-4 weeks. Time will tell.

Note, Centro was training through Indoors, and was doubling from the DMR...

Given his first chance to run outdoors against top competition...while still not tapering to a peak...what did he do?

He schooled a bunch of vets at Stanford - NO ONE had him winning in their pre-race predictions. Then what did little Centro do? He ran a prelim and a tactical final perfectly, and beat Galen. In neither race did Centro look spent. (Galen was spent after that 1500 finish.)

Sure, maybe Centro has peaked, maybe he doesn't have much left for this season, maybe this, maybe that. Maybe any one of the runners won't make the finals at Nationals, maybe anyone will have an off day in 3 weeks.

But I like the indicators of Centro's season so far.

Centrowitz has run with the competition indoors and out, in crowds, and executed intelligent, perfectly strategized races, and has not placed 2 times outdoors... He's Won. He's making statements, winning fast or winning tactical. He's showing control and savvy beyond his years. No one expected this from him this year, this soon, this early in his career.

Sure, he may not win at NCAA's. But a pattern may be emerging. Winning.

And that coming out party at Stanford, followed by the confidence, calm and savvy to win that race last weekend.

This kid may just be starting. We're going to find out. Essentially that race at Stanford was this Oregon Freshman's outdoor college debut...

And he handled the field easily, while nearly setting the Oregon record in the 1500, and running in the top ten all time.

I think the odds for Fernandez are dicier. He hasn't improved as far as we know, since his 3:55. Running world X was a great experience I am sure, but he didn't really prove he was progressing with that, or last week.

Fernandez may just find that he's out of his class when he suddenly has to run with alot of people around him again. His coach is taking a huge risk in not getting him in qaulity races with lots of traffic in order to prepare him for real race conditions with more athletes of his caliber around him. I can't imagine anyone runs "with" him during his track work in OK.

Anyway, all of this GF talk is a distraction.

Oregon could have 2 runners in the race who could beat him, and possibly 3 entrants.

It is going to be interesting. My guess is that it will be another tactical race...assuming it is hot and humid in hogland.

The Ducks have more to contend with in the climate, than they have to worry about GF and his inconsistency.

[quote] A good 100 meter kick is not the end all to end all. If it was Centro would be the indoor mile champ right now. Instead, he finished back in the pack to people with less speed and even slower PR's. [quote]

Yes, but Centro was not 100% for indoor nationals, otherwise he would have finished higher and possibly won. In case you missed it, Centro has already beat Lee Emanuel and Michael Coe this season, not to mention a host of other sub 340 guys. And by extension, he's beaten Rupp whose beaten Ulrey, not that that means much. The only person he hasn't faced and beat is Shadrack Biwott, who curiously enough outkicked him in a 347 race at the UCLA dual meet.

Lol. Thanks for the reminder, the UCLA dual.

I forgot that Shadrack won that; which may explain Centros resolve last weekend.

I am disapointed in Biwott this season. He should have run smarter and tougher and won the 5k last weekend. It is his senior year, he needs to lay it all on the line at some point and go out strong.

Biwott looked really good in the 10k last weekend.

I think he's going to be tough at the ncaa finals.

I agree with you on Biwott. He did look good in the 10K, even made a run at Rupp and ran his last lap in probably 55. He also looked good in the 5K, just got surprised by the start of the sprint and had a lot of ground to make up. That said, he had the best sprint of the field, just couldn't quite pass the winner. Yes, he may do some damage at Nationals because he has been coming to a very good peak at the right time this year.

P. J. wrote:

I agree with you on Biwott. He did look good in the 10K, even made a run at Rupp and ran his last lap in probably 55. He also looked good in the 5K, just got surprised by the start of the sprint and had a lot of ground to make up. That said, he had the best sprint of the field, just couldn't quite pass the winner. Yes, he may do some damage at Nationals because he has been coming to a very good peak at the right time this year.

i mentioned this on another thread, shadrack is a loaded weapon that most people aren't counting on. he's not as consistent as the other ducks overall, but to me this has been his best season. pac-10's saw him narrowly lose to the top collegiate in the 10K while beating 2 other top guys easily. in the 5K, well he would have beaten the collegiate leader (*rupp hasn't put up a mark) had he been more race savvy and been ready for the jump or made the jump himself.

seeing it right wrote:

in the 5K, well he would have beaten the collegiate leader (*rupp hasn't put up a mark) .

I hadn't thought about this. Rupp has not put up an outdoor 5K mark this track season? Is this right? If true, he has not qualified for regionals, correct? If he cannot run at regionals, then he cannot run at nationals. Yet, others were talking about him doubling 5 and 10k at nationals. What will he do?

turbo lover wrote:

Poster Formerly Known asGoober wrote:

Was German's 3:42 last weekend all out or did he pull back to save himself for the 5000m later that night? I know Lubbock is at some altitude (3300'?) but still, if this was an all out run, he is suprisingly far from his indoor fitness.

3:42 in Lubbock converts to a 3:38.x 1500 at sea-level.

maybe not quite:

Event 5 Men 1500 Meter Run ** Qual: 03:47.80 **

RANK ATHLETE YR SCHOOL SEED TIME RG DATE

==== ======================= == ======================= =========== == =====

1 Matthew Centrowitz FR Oregon 3:36.92 W 05-02

2 Lee Emanuel SR New Mexico 3:37.25 MW 05-02

3 Garrett Heath SR Stanford 3:37.57 W 05-02

4 Jack Bolas JR Wisconsin 3:37.64 ME 05-02

5 Craig Miller JR Wisconsin 3:37.81 ME 05-02

6 Michael Coe SO California * 3:37.98 W 04-25

7 German Fernandez FR Okla St. * 3:40.04 MW 05-17

8 Andrew Wheating JR Oregon 3:40.92 W 04-24

9 Dorian Ulrey JR Arkansas 3:41.39 ME 05-18

10 Liam Boylan-Pett SR Georgetown 3:41.47 E 05-03

11 Austin Abbott SR Washington 3:41.62 W 03-27

one thing to note, out of the top eleven marks, centro has raced all but 3 guys and beat them all this outdoor season, the ones he hasn't are currently 7th, 9th & 10th on the list. has fernandez raced and beat any of them over 1500? i know he outkicked ulrey in a mile at the start of indoors, but that doesn't mean anything concerning outdoor ncaa's.

TrackCoach wrote:Btw, the NCAAs are never a good test for who is the 'absolute' best in an event, becuase the focus for a lot of guys is on getting points for their team and pretty all of the races are tactical. Since Oregon is in the hunt for a team title, Centro will almost certainly double, while GF possibly will not.

Good point. The one with the best season will be the one who finishes top 3 at USATF Championships, IMO. But my guess is that only Fernandez has been planning his outdoor season around that meet.

Unfortunately it's getting a lot tougher to be top 3 at USATF as a collegiate. If the "big 4" (Lagat, Webb, Lomong, Manzano) are on, no one else stands a chance. Centro has beaten Lukezic, but can he mix with these guys?

he ran the 5k at the UCLA dual and broke 14. I think his time was 1358 or so but i dont remember. He has the regional though, so i assume him to run the 5k at regionals. Maybe he wont double at nationals, but i'm sure he wont make up his mind until sometime after regionals.

mighty porn stache wrote:

seeing it right wrote:

in the 5K, well he would have beaten the collegiate leader (*rupp hasn't put up a mark) .

I hadn't thought about this. Rupp has not put up an outdoor 5K mark this track season? Is this right? If true, he has not qualified for regionals, correct? If he cannot run at regionals, then he cannot run at nationals. Yet, others were talking about him doubling 5 and 10k at nationals. What will he do?

major major major major wrote:

Unfortunately it's getting a lot tougher to be top 3 at USATF as a collegiate. If the "big 4" (Lagat, Webb, Lomong, Manzano) are on, no one else stands a chance. Centro has beaten Lukezic, but can he mix with these guys?

it depends how much further centro can go this season (personally I think once this season is over an he regroups next year will be his big year) but i think lomong and manzano are not out of his reach unless they hit a new level.

J.R. wrote:

Herb Elliot ran a 4:08.8 mile with a 52.8 last 440 (52.5 400) in March of 1958.

This was on a torn up track of five laps to a mile.

His best time at that point was 3:58.7, followed two months later with 3:57.8.

Five months in August 1958 he ran the 3:54.5 WR in Dublin.

The point is that a fast kick in a slow race does not translate well to a fast pace all the way.

i'm not sure i fully understand this? the last statement sounds like complete common sense, and i can't see anyone trying to dispute it, so i'm not sure what you're trying to prove either way in terms of the conversation at hand.

i'm not trying to slam you, just asking for clarification.

for example, i noticed that elliot ran 52.5 on the last 400 of a 4:08.8 mile, and then 5 months later runs a 14 second faster mile. centro already ran 15 seconds faster (3:36) than his winning time at pac-10's and the season isn't over. centro also closed just under :52.

weather a guy is capable of 3:37 or 3:32 if the race goes at 3:48 pace or 3:55 pace through 1100 meters there isn't going to be a whole lot of difference in what they are capable of on the last lap. if they come through the bell at 2:55 or 3:00 that last lap is going to be essentially be the same at a maxed out effort. maybe a couple tenths of a second difference. the kick is impressive because hitting around :52.0 is something not many people can do in any kind of race at any distance (it was an unofficial 400 PR for Rupp!). let alone there was a mob of people to negotiate. and actually the fact that rupp and wheating did it off of bigger first days makes there last laps equally impressive to me.