Centro vs Fernandez over 1500m?

Fernandez takes it out hard to lead the pack. Centro sits in about 5th-7th until 300m to go, then crushes everyone.

I've been waiting for a thread to discuss these two young stars.

I think right now Matt would probably take it but if it was a fast paced race it would be interesting to see how it played out.

I think the real question is... Who is going to be better over 5000 in their careers? I truly believe both of them will be much better at this distance than the 1500. Matt went to Oregon with better endurance than speed. (Not that he was slow by any means!)It is only recently that he has found this extra gear and been able to do so well at the 1500 and mile.

I honestly believe that one of these two and possibly Derek will eventually break the American 5K record.

Plus you have to factor in the Heats that they are both gonna have to run to get into the Finals. Should be good to watch. Especially if GF takes the race out hard. Then racing tactics will play a huge part as well, since guys wont be giving anyone a free passing lane for the win.

Fernandez ran a 3:55 indoor mile in february. the 3:36.9 Centrowitz ran a couple weeks ago is maybe slightly faster than that, but Centrowitz ran that 2-3 months after Fernandez had already ran a similar time over a race 100m longer. I think Fernandez has better natural ability than Centrowitz, and I think Centrowitz would race well against Fernandez, but if they're both healthy and fresh and in shape on the starting line, I would have to give Fernandez the edge.

irun, very good points. If they're both healthy it would probably be close and too hard to predict. I agree though that I can't wait to see them battle over 5K. I give the edge to Fernandez right now, but I think Matt will have the best time at the end of their careers. He is just built perfectly for the longer distances.

Fernandez ran his 3:55 solo and indoors, more like a time trial than a competitive race vs. centro running outdoors against a strong field, and with a battle over final 100m. Add to this Fernandez's strength with his 13:30 5K, and he would be the man to beat over 1500M - a fast race would probably be sub-3:36.

Fernandez is going to solo a 3:33.x at Outdoor.

I would have to give it to Centro based on his finishing 100m at Pac 10. To outkick Rupp and Wheating is pretty impressive and I don't think Fernandez can finish like that.

From The Stands wrote:

I would have to give it to Centro based on his finishing 100m at Pac 10. To outkick Rupp and Wheating is pretty impressive and I don't think Fernandez can finish like that.

Yeah but that was his kick in a 3:51 race...Fernandez never runs a tactical race.

Centro over GF only at races < mile. The future of US running as I beleive both of these guys have talent that not many Americans have had over the last 5 years. Hopefully both will stay on the track, not like many others.

what is germans fastest 400 in any race? :56? :55?

german has run fast while running completely even, he has not won a very competitive 1500. centro has now won 2 VERY competitive 1500's. if it goes out slow, probably centro. if it goes out fast, probably centro.

A couple of months ago, nobody would have considered this a close comparison.

Now, Centro has one-upped Fernandez with both the faster time (3:36), as well as the faster kick off a slow pace (51.x or at slowest 52.0 at Pac10).

It's possible Fernandez will up the ante at NCAAs, and even though I'm a Duck fan I wouldn't be shocked to see Fernandez take that race. Of course, Ulrey or Coe or somebody else may have something to say about it.

thar she blows wrote:

A couple of months ago, nobody would have considered this a close comparison.

Now, Centro has one-upped Fernandez with both the faster time (3:36), as well as the faster kick off a slow pace (51.x or at slowest 52.0 at Pac10).

It's possible Fernandez will up the ante at NCAAs, and even though I'm a Duck fan I wouldn't be shocked to see Fernandez take that race. Of course, Ulrey or Coe or somebody else may have something to say about it.

it's just unfortunate that unless wheating decides to douple and rupp to triple, 2 of the top 3 in the event won't be there, and either of them could win it.

there are a lot of guys who can stop fernandez off a slow pace (heath and hassan are another couple) and probably 5-6 (not all will race) off a fast pace. at the same time fernandez could win it. that's what is so impressive about the 1500 this year. you have at least 6 or more guys who can run 3:37 or better.

just off of my head, a couple wisconsin guys, lee emanuel, fernandez, heath, centro, rupp and wheating surely can in a fast race, coe probably, ulrey likely. and I'm sure I'm foregetting a few. it's pretty damn nuts.

I'd guess there's zero chance Rupp runs 1,500 at NCAA, and less than 50/50 that Wheating does. Not that I've seen anything official from either athlete.

Heard through the grapevine wrote:

I'd guess there's zero chance Rupp runs 1,500 at NCAA, and less than 50/50 that Wheating does. Not that I've seen anything official from either athlete.

You have to be right on Rupp because that would seem very excess in terms of his summer plans.

Wheating, I doubt it but there is some rest time in there and Oregon is going for the win, which is why Rupp is doubling 5K & 10K. I wouldn't be too surprised either way with Wheating.

This race could be pretty nuts. Lots of "favorites" without the clear Manzano favorite like last year.

Fernandez (3:55 and a warrior)

Emanuel (3:37, Indoor champ, great kick)

Centro (3:36, beat Emanuel, greater kick)

Ulrey (top outdoor returnee, 3:57)

Miller (3:37, Indoor runner-up, 4th last year)

Bolas (3:37, 3rd last year)

Heath (3:37, All-American in mile and 1500 4 times)

Coe (3:56, 7:47, gots wheels)

Wheating would be fun to see in this race too.

Too bad guys like See, Acosta, Bumbalough have been injured or they'd be in this mix.

People are always amazed when someone runs a fast time with no competition and always project how much faster they would have with comp. It does not alway work out that way, some runners are more comfortable when they can control the race and there is no one next to them. Forget about the time, there are more variables to content with and more difficult to win a race.

Not saying who would win in a 1500 between GF and Centro, but Centro beat who I had considered to be the best 1500 runner in the NCAAs (Wheating) and he did so in a race where all of the variables were equal. In my mind Centro, who is the age of the average freshman is man to beat.

Btw, the NCAAs are never a good test for who is the \'absolute\' best in an event, becuase the focus for a lot of guys is on getting points for their team and pretty all of the races are tactical. Since Oregon is in the hunt for a team title, Centro will almost certainly double, while GF possibly will not.

The winds are always shifting.

Ulrey was the shizz. 2nd behind Leo. 3:57, 7:50, rolled Rupp in a DMR leg. Then at Indoor Nats, he was further back.

Emanuel was the man - ran great in that Notre Dame DMR then won nats then ran 3:37, then he got beat at Cardinal.

Coe had 7:47 and 3:56 to his name. Now he may be hurt.

Centro didn't do well at Indoor Nats. But this outdoor season he's been crazy good and consistent, whiping out some great guys (Emanuel, Lukezic, Heath, the Wisco guys) then winning PAC-10 over Rupp and Wheating.

So who will be at his best on the right day?

ghostface killah wrote:

The winds are always shifting.

Ulrey was the shizz. 2nd behind Leo. 3:57, 7:50, rolled Rupp in a DMR leg. Then at Indoor Nats, he was further back.

Emanuel was the man - ran great in that Notre Dame DMR then won nats then ran 3:37, then he got beat at Cardinal.

Coe had 7:47 and 3:56 to his name. Now he may be hurt.

Centro didn't do well at Indoor Nats. But this outdoor season he's been crazy good and consistent, whiping out some great guys (Emanuel, Lukezic, Heath, the Wisco guys) then winning PAC-10 over Rupp and Wheating.

So who will be at his best on the right day?

a couple reasons I'd bet on centro are:

1) Oregons record of showing up on the big day (that is obviously an overall thing and some individuals do not)

2) Centro seems to have just found his groove. His indoor mile at 3:57 reminded me of when Rupp went 27:33 to win cardinal a couple years ago. It was kind of a "hey, I'm better than I thought I was" and the level was raised to where his bad days were still very solid.

That's assuming Wheating is not in the 1500, and i think Wheating will get under 3:35 in Europe this summer if he races a 1500 there.