I don't know what Rupp's plans for the spring and next year are, because I think he still has a year of eligibility in track and another year of eligibility in xc. if not now, then after the track season would be the best time, i think, for him to go pro. he could stay with oregon and get another championship next year, because he'd be basically training the same as if he went pro, just making the money yet, but he doesn't really appear to need the money to train at the highest level this country can produce. if you can't bring the boy to altitude, let the altitude tent bring it to him, right?
anyway, i think a 10k in hengelo early on in the track season would probably be a good race for him to do. true his 5k pr is 13:30 and his 10k pr is 27:33. i think both times are indicative of his abilities, but do not show is full potential. when rupp ran 13:30 he was not preparing to be in peak shape, i think it was still the middle of the ncaa track season. obviously he is limited by his lack of speed over shorter distances (800m - 2000m), but if he can train his body to endure fast laps thrown in the middle of 10k's, he may be able to compete with some of the top 10k runners in the world, but i do think he will ever be able to compete with anyone in a 10k being run significantly faster than 27:00 pace. i think rupp is capably of nearing the 27:00 barrier, maybe 26:50-55 at best, but i think that would be a long shot for an american born. it's hard to see him ever bringing home an olympic or world champ medal in a 10k, although i guess if kara can do it, rupp can do it too, but it would be no higher than a silver or bronze. rupp would have to develop stunning speed (<<60 seconds last 400, <2:00 last 800m) and be with or near the front pack in order to compete in a truly world class 10k, and by compete, i mean compete for a medal. because of his limited speed, he obviously will be less competitive at 5000m, though i think he will still run in the 13:00-13:10 range. before, i said his 13:30 is indicative of his abilities, but really, it doesn't paint the best picture of his abilities. if he can run 13:30 and then 2 weeks later run 13:50 and 13:43 back-to-back to run 27:33, then he's obviously in better shape than 13:30 5k shape. rupp could probably be in 13:20 shape in a matter of 4-6 weeks if he wanted to be. so i will say it might be probably that rupp hits his peak earlier in life than bauhs does, but i do not think that means bauhs will become a better runner than rupp. it'll just take bauhs longer to his his peak, but in the end he will not have a faster 10k pr than rupp. i believe he may be able to compete against rupp over 5k and shorter distances, but rupp will be a "distance master" in the end, to the likes of al sal, meb keflizighi, alan culpepper, and such.