Hocker isn't going to be anywhere near the medals.
Yeah, that’s the funny thing, right — the two outcomes for Hocker are either him running away with it on the last lap or getting dropped before then and ending up 6-10th, nowhere in between. If it’s a little cooler I still like Young’s chances of medaling.
Kimeli, Hocker, and Gressier in some order. Paula Radcliffe said temps in the stadium were 10 degrees lower tonight, hopefully they stay that way for the final. I'm still not ruling out a medal for Jakob, but he needs to move up the field earlier
I'll rule it out.
"Iffy wrote: Hocker isn't going to be anywhere near the medals."
Jimmy G looked really good in the heat, as did Mehary. With Jakob clearly not at 100%, this race feels wide open with any of about 10, maybe 12 guys capable of winning.
jimmy g, mills, hocker, nico
are the guys that seem to be peaking and can finish
Yeah watching this years 10000m makes me think all the runners are pussys compared to the great zersenay in Osaka 10000m and the Kenyans in Beijing 2015. They forced a fast pace in similar weather to attack Bekele and Farah. It was glorious to watch. Now it’s a snooze fest of cowards
Mo Farah and Lagat probably would have medaled here in their current age 😂
Jimmy G looked really good in the heat, as did Mehary. With Jakob clearly not at 100%, this race feels wide open with any of about 10, maybe 12 guys capable of winning.
jimmy g, mills, hocker, nico
are the guys that seem to be peaking and can finish
fisher seems just past peak
guess its like a 1305 race
an a game african figures as well
guess jimmy g has the most visible glow
might be looking at double gold for Jimmy G
The heat and the way he's structured his season looks like hes timed his peak perfectly.
plus hes got a couple countrymen he might be able to talk into some tactics to keep the race from going too fast too early
I hope you're right, but if Jakob is in 12:55, 3:32 shape, while still far from his peak, he would definitely be a contender. I think it's closer to 13:10ish and 3:34 atm for him.
People are underestimating Hocker's endurance here. Dude ran a 7:23, that would be good enough to get him into this 12:40s in a good race. El g going into Athen only had a 12:50 PB (coincidentally, he also has the exact same 3k PR as Hocker). where he got dusted by Shaheen. And then he just destroyed both Bekele and Kipchoge coming off his 1500m win. And with Jakob not being in shape we know there's no Bekele in the field. There's a decent chance Hocker would pull it off there, as long as it isn't faster than 13:00, and he would be the favourite if it's slower than 13:10.
Also, don't sleep on Young, he looked strong in that 10k. He just had poor tactics, as opposed to Fisher who didn't seem to quite have it.
No, it doesn't work like that. Andreas Almgren ran 12:44 in June and a 3000 PB of 7:31 in August, that very same 5000 race where Hocker ran 13:09. Almgren is a 5000 runner, Hocker isn't.
but the Hocker that showed up in June may not be the one running 7:23 (especially when they're 3-4 months apart) and going to be running in the 5k final (which is another 3 months apart). I suspect, as almost always the case for him (no guarantee as shown by Kerr), he peaks for the championship, though we can only find that out on Sunday, since he blew it tactically in the 1500, so we didn't get to gauge his current shape.
like the steeplechase, 10K and 1500 the race will be slow, probably very slow. We will all act surprised by this, like we do every year.
Fisher, Mehary, and Young have no chance in a 13:20 race. Look for randos we barely know to make the podium... people who can close in 51.
My pick for gold is Isaac Kimeli of Belgium. I like how he looked in that European race where he blew away Grant Fisher in the rain. I'm picking Hocker for second based on his performance at the U.S. trials and Gressier for third because he has demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher, Mehary, Almgren, and Young.
I don't remember which other Ethiopians are in the race, but I doubt any of them can close in 51.
Others:
Laros is a 800/1500 guy. I don't think he will hold up well in this heat/humidity after running three 1500s and one 5000. Also I think he may have peaked a month ago.
Jakob may make the final but he doesn't have the fitness to medal.
This is interesting - it's like a new world order in that there are so many European and American runners who are not born in Africa who are competing on a level playing field with the best Africans these days and often beating them.
I hope you're right, but if Jakob is in 12:55, 3:32 shape, while still far from his peak, he would definitely be a contender. I think it's closer to 13:10ish and 3:34 atm for him.
I just don’t understand why you’d think that. Of the 15 guys to qualify for the 5k final besides Jakob, there are 3 with 13:01/13:02 season’s bests and 12 with sub-13 SBs. Why would Jakob only be at 13:10? In the 1500, everyone who beat him has run 3:32 or faster this season, and he beat some guys with 3:32/3:33 SBs - so why only 3:34? Especially considering he ran the last 1K/2K of the 5k heat in 2:23/4:58.
Times have progressed to the point where if you’re in 3:34/13:10 shape you’re not remotely competitive at the WC level, and even if you’re in 3:32/12:55 shape you can be just another guy struggling to make the 5k final.
Question... forget about winning, if you had to bet your life on someone to simply medal, who are you going with?
Maybe Fisher?
...but would be updating my will and purchasing life insurance after placing that bet. There's no one with super high odds so it's a good question. Wish the Sportsbook would open up betting for the 5K - I haven't been able to find one that has it, and would bet on whoever they're putting as the underdogs
Feels like we’re in for a weird one. Two fresh guys and Nico who might be the speediest in these sorts of conditions. Ngl Schrub is an interesting dark horse with his really good speed.
This post was edited 12 seconds after it was posted.
Question... forget about winning, if you had to bet your life on someone to simply medal, who are you going with?
Maybe Fisher?
...but would be updating my will and purchasing life insurance after placing that bet. There's no one with super high odds so it's a good question. Wish the Sportsbook would open up betting for the 5K - I haven't been able to find one that has it, and would bet on whoever they're putting as the underdogs
What’s the last distance track final with no strong favorite for even a medal? Hocker leads with ~65% odds even with the fd vig, easily the lowest of the games
Feels like we’re in for a weird one. Two fresh guys and Nico who might be the speediest in these sorts of conditions. Ngl Schrub is an interesting dark horse with his really good speed.
Dr Schrub is not naturally fast but he's worked at it the last 2 years and now has a faster 1500 compared to Jimmy Gressier..