He needs to trust his strength. He needs to let others lead and take control with 400-600 to go. The only reason he did not win Olympic Gold was because He paced the top 3 finishers for 1450m. Any of those 3 guys would have died by 1200-1250m leading at that pace.
if they lead, they wouldn't lead at a pace that kills them though. It would be what we saw in GST. I don't think that pace would be working in Jakob's favor either.
It's not rocket science. The same strategy that won numerous titles for N. Morceli and H. ElGuerrouj: crank up the pace from 900 to 1100m out with each lap getting faster. Last 800m SUB 1:48 at the least.
Morceli not quite the "long drive for home" guy - his most dominant championship performances came with those blistering final 400's well under 52.0 seconds (51.55 Tokyo, 50.62 Stuttgart, 51.28 Gothenburg) - all in races under 3.34.50 pace (think about how insane that is).
You're right though with the El Guerrouj model - I don't think he quite has the power/leg speed of Hicham to run something like Athens (1.46.9 final 800 from the front, 3.34.2), but he can make the race just in general faster and go from slightly further out. You're right again - it isn't rocket science if you are him, make the final a race of attrition. He needs to ask himself "how do I get to 1100m right at my threshold but with enough reserves to run 54 low for the final 400?" Because if he does this nobody will beat him.
I went back and watched the 2023 final which aside from Tokyo (where Tim C made it easy for him), was the best executed race for him in the last 3 championships he hasn't come through. In this one he has his customary slow off the line start, works slowly around the field coming through 300 and takes over exactly with 1000m to go after basically a 70 second opening 500m. He then he runs 57.7 and 54.6 and closes in 27.3. That really wasn't bad - he just couldn't quite drive that opening 400m of the final kilometer as hard as he needed to, but of course he was slightly under the weather. If that was a 56.0 then a 54.6 and 27.3 close then nobody beats him. So he ragged on for his tactical execution but I believe his blueprint to winning (given he is healthy and is running) he has already played out before.
I'm not sure that's the case anymore, when Habz closed his 3:27 in 53.
What is Jakob's best strategy to win in Tokyo in the 1500m?
Assuming he gets good training now leading up, and he gets to an even higher level than he was in 2024.
Problem is, now he has a lot of guys with outstanding fitness breathing down his neck, even though he might be the strongest on paper, the gap is not massive compared to what Tim C had in 2019.
Front-running would be extremely risky - but extremely rewarding (showing that you are just that good).
But front-running the entire 1500m is, as we've seen, not his best strategy if he merely wants to win.
Would a viable strategy be to squeeze from 800-900 meters out?
Which splits would you guys go for to maximize chances of winning?
Go hard from the front and hope like mad his achillies holds up.
That's what he tried in Paris. It didn't work out too well for him. But the Achilles was fine.
He needs to trust his strength. He needs to let others lead and take control with 400-600 to go. The only reason he did not win Olympic Gold was because He paced the top 3 finishers for 1450m. Any of those 3 guys would have died by 1200-1250m leading at that pace.
Right, and that’s why none of the other 3, set the pace. Waiting until the last 400-600, would be trusting his leg speed.
I actually think if he can get healthy this might be his year. Habz or another top runner taking it out fast could help him a ton, and hammer it home the last 800. The tough question is there will be 6+ guys that can run sub 3:28. If he doesn’t have to lead the first 2 laps at a really fast pace he could be in a good setting
It is going to be an amazing race stacked with 3:27 and 3:28 guys. It could take a 3:29 just to make the final.
Here is the key point: there will be a couple 800/1500 guys like Habz in the final--guys who have run 1:43 in the 800. Guys who can leave Kerr, Nuguse, and Hocker in the dust the final 100 meters if the pace is slow.
Given that, there will be many runners in the race, not just Jakob, who would benefit from an honest pace: Mills, Laros, Nillessen, Kipsang, Kerr, Nuguse, Hocker.
If they let the pace dawdle, they could lose not only to Habz, but also to Kessler or Jonah Koech or Lagat.
Phanuel Koech is a wildcard. We have no idea what his top-end speed is like, but he has run 3:27 and clearly is a threat in any kind of race.
There will be a dense pack; those running inside the pack will be pushed and jostled. Those running to the outside of the pack will have to cover extra distance. In such a race, I think there is a good argument for running in either last place or first place, where there is little or no jostling. Or you can run inside the pack and hope lane 1 opens up on the home straight.
It would not surprise me at all to see someone other than Jakob run to the front and push the pace. Probably either Phanuel Koech or George Mills.
Agree, and I think the crowded fields hurt Ingebrigtsen the least, though there’s no doubt that with so many guys who could win on the day, his personal chances go down. I do think that between people like Farken/T.Cheruiyot/Myers/Nuguse etc, somebody else can be counted on to see that their best hope is to take it out. Not that it will be wire-to-wire like 2016, but managing energy and position will be critical.
I think the explosion of 3:27-3:29 runners is worst news for Kerr; he’s been a great tactical racer the last few years, but has relied on being fitter than his competitors. Sit back on the rail 1st 800, quick surge from say 8th to 4th on the backstretch from 800-900 meters, another move from 500-400 or 300-200 to get on the shoulder of the leader, and work the last 200. Now he’ll have Habz and others resisting him; he won’t be able to move up and get back to the inside so easily. If he tries to race this way against a WC final field, his surges will have to be extended longer, and maybe onto curves. Obviously this will take away from his finish. Tactics-wise, pretty much the same story for Hocker, except he is more cautious with his first move. I think they need new tactics too; either they won’t have the position where a low 26 last 200 will be enough to leapfrog to the front, or they will have spent enough energy getting in position that they will not have a fast enough finish left in their legs.
If you look at his races leading up to the 2020 Olympics, his early days he led few of those races but demonstrated a strong kick including that amazing 2018 World under 20 race. When he ran his 3:31 as a 17 year old he came from way behind to run that time. For me it's all strategy with him. He did an interview in 2019
titled Exclusive Interview – Jakob Ingebrigtsen: "My goal is to be too fast for everybody else"
In that interview he basically said that his goal was to be so strong that no one could keep up with him, so essentially, he wanted to get away from the sit and kick strategy.
It's not that he never had a kick, if you watch his early races you will see that he has, it's that he overreached and it might be his ego or overconfidence that he didn't need a kick to be successfully because he would be in front and unable to be caught.
What is striking is that he did this interview even before the 2020 Olympics. Now, when he wins the Euro Championships and even this past Worlds Indoor, he did squeeze and relied on a very strong kick.
I am sure he is watching what is going on, esp the new 18-year-old Kenyan, he will come up with a strategy he thinks will be successful. He may not win but he will certainly medal, esp if he rounds himself back in the kind of shape he was indoors.
Go hard from the front and hope like mad his achillies holds up.
That's what he tried in Paris. It didn't work out too well for him. But the Achilles was fine.
I think he's a better shot,in the 5000. The way things are going in the 1500,the world record is gonna be broken soon,not by him,and he's about to become "just the next guy" .
the grand slam answers the questions on what an 800 time means in the 1500, one day later
which is, it is random
kerr and hocker ran what ? 150 148, 145 146, ? off podium, next day on podium, beating guys that the lost to in the 8 the day before, and those guys were milers as well, not 8 specialists.
jacob has the early season 146 on his resume, and in the above context, it means nothing what so ever.
jacob can win 1500s the exact same way he ran them in the past, when he won.
and jacob can lost 1500s in the exact same way he ran in the past and lost.
his best bet is to emulate the tokyo og win and follow some fool that sets him up till the last 150m, which is what jacob does for the others routinely.
jacob's A game allows for an El G type finish, and win, off a WR setup pace to 1k ish. which isn't in the cards, as he got injured.
so the races will play out, not in the "normal" fashion, with everybody potentially in 326 high shape in the right race themselves.
I like what high school xc coach said--stay near the front, lane one, and then move out with 600m left.
Kerr has beaten him leading from 700 to the finish. To lead from the gun (Paris), lead from 600 to go or kick at 250m - there is no "solution" for Jakob's 1500 problem.
That's what he tried in Paris. It didn't work out too well for him. But the Achilles was fine.
So, how about you answer the thread question?
I have. He doesn't have a strategy. He's tried all of them - lead from the gun, lead from 600 to go, kick over the last 100m - they don't work for him now over the 1500 against the best.
So El G didn't run 1:46x for the last 800 in Athens? And what is Ingebrigtsen's fastest 800 time?
What is ElGs fastest 800 time?
Oh. that's right...
He virtually ran it in a 1500 as he scarcely raced the distance. What is there to show Ingebrigtsen could run 1:46 in a 1500? He has never got near doing that. If he had he would have been the winner of every global outdoor 1500 championship since 2021 instead of losing every one.
This post was edited 41 seconds after it was posted.