Although at this point it is hard to imagine it lasting this long, I feel like this is a five year project. The Olympics are in LA in 2028, and as we get closer to the Olympics I feel like the media is going to slowly build up the hype for track and field in the USA. If the USA has an amazing performance at the Olympics, perhaps all the hype and media time surrounding the buildup to the Olympics will help build enough interest in GST for it to survive sustainably past the Olympics.
So they've got 4 years to get the formula, production, and marketing right, assuming their investors stay in the game that long. They'll be capitalizing on all the free press track and field will be getting in the leadup to the Olympics, so it would be foolish to let GST die just before the Olympics fever reaches its peak.
Typically venture capital expects at least a 50% ROI within 5 years. So the timing is just about right for that. There's no money in selling seats at the venue, not enough to return 45 million to the 30 million invested. It's all about TV rights and advertising spots during the broadcast. Can the league draw enough eyeballs to keep enough dollars flowing in to cover the league's expenditures and keep the investors in the game through the Olympics? We'll see.
I do think it really is going to come down to how fast they can innovate the product and correct obvious mistakes. While there is plenty to criticize, I think credit hasn't been given for what they've gotten right. They obviously knew the league would be instantly dead in the water if no talent showed up. But they got Hocker, Kerr, and Nuguse racing each other in the normal pre-season, so that's significant.