Id wrote:
Hobbs is still a level above all these NCAA guys. I think the team will be the same as last year. He’ll probably go 3:28 low or 3:27 this year.
But good to see all these kids running 3:33 and better. The future is bright.
Now, in the 5k, I have a hard time seeing Hocker qualify. 5k will be his 3rd race in 4 days. And Grant is a near lock, barring an injury or a fall.
Nico, Teare, and Blanks could all be 12:50 or better dudes. Teare being completely fresh.
What I'm really interested to see if how some of these guys who, on paper, should handle these college guys actually deal with them in a race. Last year at the trials 5k, I think a lot of people would have put someone like Teare ahead of Parker Wolfe and Graham Blanks. But when the race played out, it was Fisher vs Nur for the win and Wolfe vs Blanks for 3rd, with Teare and a bunch of other fast guys well back. Now that picture is going to have even more guys thrown into the mix for both 1500 and 5k. Again, I think if you're Fisher, Hocker (in the 1500 because you're right I was probably giving Hocker a little more credit in the 5k), and Nuguse you can navigate these extra college kids just fine but I'm not sure everyone else will find it so easy. I can just see one of these college kids making some kind of wild move that throws off most of the field. Again, this should be no problem for the medalists but something like that plus having another 4+ guys lined up and race sharp from seasons of racing could be trouble for those guys hanging around for that 3rd spot in both events.
Also I want to mention that Hobbs, Green, Strand, and Wolfe are all basically the same age. Murphy is a year older and I think Langon is a year younger (same high school class as Sahlman and Martin I think?). So for all the talk about Covid super seniors and guys like Casey Clinger still in the NCAA, these actual college age guys are showing they can crush just like anyone. Future is looking super bright!