Exactly what Milt was doing...there is no logical case to be made for Strand regardless of XC and 3K success, beating Sahlman, they as well as Strand would not be in this one if not to really crank one out. The fields otherwise are not that great, there is a specific purpose to this. Sahlman needs a mile, or he would have done same trip and run 1500 at NB.
Exactly what Milt was doing...there is no logical case to be made for Strand regardless of XC and 3K success, beating Sahlman, they as well as Strand would not be in this one if not to really crank one out. The fields otherwise are not that great, there is a specific purpose to this. Sahlman needs a mile, or he would have done same trip and run 1500 at NB.
I think the correlation between 3K and Mike is plenty high. There are some pure distance guys who can run under 7:35 but only relatively poor 1500/miles. Strand is not that type. Matter of when not if he runs a very fast 1500/mile. The 3:50 indoors concept you have while accurate might be a relic pretty soon. It might hang on this year purely because Hocker and Teare opted to go 3K at Millrose, and it’s unclear if Green would chase a faster mile now.
Exactly what Milt was doing...there is no logical case to be made for Strand regardless of XC and 3K success, beating Sahlman, they as well as Strand would not be in this one if not to really crank one out. The fields otherwise are not that great, there is a specific purpose to this. Sahlman needs a mile, or he would have done same trip and run 1500 at NB.
I think the correlation between 3K and Mike is plenty high. There are some pure distance guys who can run under 7:35 but only relatively poor 1500/miles. Strand is not that type. Matter of when not if he runs a very fast 1500/mile. The 3:50 indoors concept you have while accurate might be a relic pretty soon. It might hang on this year purely because Hocker and Teare opted to go 3K at Millrose, and it’s unclear if Green would chase a faster mile now.
Logical post, but, you cannot go back and people continuously do, not you, and say "this or that MIGHT have happened", what is done is done.If you objectively look at Strand, his best two races ever, by a long shot are this 7:30.15 which shocked almost, I said almost, everybody, and his XC race, which I doubt anyone really had them in their top 10, if they say they did , they are most likely lying. If you ask any accomplished distance runner, they will say that NCAA Cross, is the hardest race to run well at, of any of them, not my words, that is from guys that ran it and were All Americans. His best races so far are over this distance.
4 different guys have run under 3:50.00 in U.S. History, and the shoes and BU have now been around for a while, certainly long enough , 2 in the 6 years almost from Gregorek's. If it were that easy, at least one Guy per year would do this, not the case. Maybe it happens Saturday. I would take the over.
Do you not see how close a prediction 13 flat would have been after 7:28? But everyone was disappointed by the run and it seemed Nuguse's endurance didn't really go to 5000m at the time. Strand's just completed a good xc season, so his likely would go to 5000m, but here we're not talking about whether his endurance goes to 5000m but whether he can step down from 3k to mile and run a commensurate time. Considering that he's a miler known for his kick, that he ran 7:30 before much "speedwork," off of xc fitness and one sharpening workout, that he dropped a ton of time at 3k, and that he's already run 3:35 (3:35.0 converts to 3:52.2), I don't see 3:50 as out there at all for him. A 2:22 1k target would put him in great position to beat it. I calculate that as 3:48.5 mile pace!
He ran 7:30. That is not nothing. That was a huge drop. Rupp was no miler but he ran 3:50 after 7:30. He's enormously improved and 3:35 already is equivalent to 3:52. If Milt hadn't said he took a bunch of time off in December, I'd think it was a slam dunk. As it is, we're in the dark about his shape but I bet he's in good shape, otherwise he wouldn't be in the race. Break 3:50 and you also as a bonus meet the World's qualifying time.
8th in NCAA xc in 28:53 (Blanks won in 28:37) plus 7:30.15 say that this guy is world's ahead of his 3:35 1500m pr. In distance running, there are no fluke races. If you're healthy, that is your level. You'd only believe this if he were from Philly or Jersey or coached by a friend of yours. Everyone else has done nothing in your world. Absurd to have that obvious a bias.
After hearing Milt's interview comments, I'm a bit less bullish on Strand, because the suggestion was that he is not in the same shape as when he ran 7:30. But if so, he should run 3:49-50. We'd have a better guess if we were hearing workout splits. The fact only 4 Americans have broken 3:50 indoors is not nearly as significant as it appears to be because the shoes have changed everything and there are stacks of college runners running 3:50-53. When the numbers get like that, the floodgates are ready to open.
Yeah I'm feeling the same way after reading what he said. There's a voice in my head saying "They thought they were maybe in 7:34 shape when they ran 7:30 so maybe he's in better shape than they realize", but since he spent December taking it pretty easy, I don't know that 4 weeks is enough to get you into 3:49 shape even if you were coming off 7:30 shape, particularly since it's still a long way from their goal races. I also agree with 3:50 not being what it used to be, and that if he's in similar shape to his December shape, 3:49-50 is probably where he lands.
8th in NCAA xc in 28:53 (Blanks won in 28:37) plus 7:30.15 say that this guy is world's ahead of his 3:35 1500m pr. In distance running, there are no fluke races. If you're healthy, that is your level. You'd only believe this if he were from Philly or Jersey or coached by a friend of yours. Everyone else has done nothing in your world. Absurd to have that obvious a bias.
You can say and surely think what you want, he is a 3:35.x and 3:54.x until Saturday . I knew the time off excuse was already baking in. this is not a trip they would make if it was not very specific, you wouldn't think Sahlman should win a head to head here? he has 3.17 secs to get to 3:50.00. Strand? if you convert his best 1500? 3:52.x?
no, if Nuguse could "Jog" 13:02, he is in the wrong event.
Saw that one live, and he definitely didn't jog. He, in fact, he thought he could command the last 800 of it like he does in a mile and he was unable to. He could probably run faster in a subsequent attempt but Yared is like many milers these days... OK at 800, perfect at 1500/mile, close to as good at 3,000, then the drop-off at 5,000. Hocker will be interesting to see in a maximal 3,000 and more 800s to see where he falls. Kessler the same if he runs more over-distance, as we know the 800 side of things is there.
First of all Strand is 22 and 3 plus months. These things are not hard to look up. The only reason they could closed so absurdly fast, is that the fractions were moderate for a 7:30 effort. they are not closing as fast if they are out further on the edge so to speak. You should know this, I don't know why people are holding on to some notion that:
1. They could have gone faster if they were out faster, they easily could have backed up off much faster, certainly not closing in 2:24 I believe?
2. That they could have gone faster when they ran numbers 2 and 4 All time U.S. Indoors crushing the CR. Did you see the race, they were screaming fast the last 1000 and 200 especially, that is not happening off of lower 1600 and 2K fractions, it's just the way it works, I am not making it up to suit and argument.
3. I keep hearing this monster kicker argument? Give me one guy who was as fast or faster(than his 3:35.x 15 ) that he has kicked down in a 1500 or mile? I tried to find them. he has beaten guys he should.
His best "kick" ever was in beating Wolfe, his best by far at any distance. He is extremely talented, I would say he would have a better chance at sub 3:50, if he had any other absurd down distance mark, I cannot even find a 1:47.00.
3K is a completely different event/thing than a sub 3:50 mile. The mile has been competed at a high level far far more than the 3K and there are only 10 guys who have broken 3:50 in the U.S. only two of them Indoors, ever.
idk why you're bringing up his age lol ik how old he is without having to look it up because he's my age
1. Yeah if they'd gone out faster they could've overcooked it, I'm just saying the fact they closed so fast means they were in better than 7:30 shape. Of course if they went out faster they would've have closed as fast, but I never said differently. Just that if they'd gone out 3s faster through 2k, maybe they would've run 7:29 instead, instead of knocking off 4s in the last 200m.
2. Ya I watched the race that's why I think they can run faster. They had so much left in the tank with 400m to go.
3. He outkicked Cooper Teare (NCAA mile record holder, 3:32 guy), Joe Waskom (2x NCAA 1500m champ, 3:33 guy), Luke Houser (2x NCAA mile champ, 3:35 guy), and Sam Prakel (3:50i guy) in the OT semifinals in a 3:38 race. I think he's lacked the fitness and tactical chops to win NCAAs, but with his 7:30/top 10 in XC fitness, he might be ready to overcome that.
First of all Strand is 22 and 3 plus months. These things are not hard to look up. The only reason they could closed so absurdly fast, is that the fractions were moderate for a 7:30 effort. they are not closing as fast if they are out further on the edge so to speak. You should know this, I don't know why people are holding on to some notion that:
1. They could have gone faster if they were out faster, they easily could have backed up off much faster, certainly not closing in 2:24 I believe?
2. That they could have gone faster when they ran numbers 2 and 4 All time U.S. Indoors crushing the CR. Did you see the race, they were screaming fast the last 1000 and 200 especially, that is not happening off of lower 1600 and 2K fractions, it's just the way it works, I am not making it up to suit and argument.
3. I keep hearing this monster kicker argument? Give me one guy who was as fast or faster(than his 3:35.x 15 ) that he has kicked down in a 1500 or mile? I tried to find them. he has beaten guys he should.
His best "kick" ever was in beating Wolfe, his best by far at any distance. He is extremely talented, I would say he would have a better chance at sub 3:50, if he had any other absurd down distance mark, I cannot even find a 1:47.00.
3K is a completely different event/thing than a sub 3:50 mile. The mile has been competed at a high level far far more than the 3K and there are only 10 guys who have broken 3:50 in the U.S. only two of them Indoors, ever.
idk why you're bringing up his age lol ik how old he is without having to look it up because he's my age
1. Yeah if they'd gone out faster they could've overcooked it, I'm just saying the fact they closed so fast means they were in better than 7:30 shape. Of course if they went out faster they would've have closed as fast, but I never said differently. Just that if they'd gone out 3s faster through 2k, maybe they would've run 7:29 instead, instead of knocking off 4s in the last 200m.
2. Ya I watched the race that's why I think they can run faster. They had so much left in the tank with 400m to go.
3. He outkicked Cooper Teare (NCAA mile record holder, 3:32 guy), Joe Waskom (2x NCAA 1500m champ, 3:33 guy), Luke Houser (2x NCAA mile champ, 3:35 guy), and Sam Prakel (3:50i guy) in the OT semifinals in a 3:38 race. I think he's lacked the fitness and tactical chops to win NCAAs, but with his 7:30/top 10 in XC fitness, he might be ready to overcome that.
Well since you say you get it, I volunteer this for the last time, If they are out faster, they run as maybe fast or slower.. In my opinion Out any slower, no way to run as fast or faster..
Out too fast? They might back into that mark, I doubt it. I think it was right for them, that day. I certainly am not giving guys who were high 7:30's to 7:40 guys anything faster than what they ran
The fact is, you run what you run, you don't get credit for what might have beens, there are lots of them there in them hills, last time I looked.
idk why you're bringing up his age lol ik how old he is without having to look it up because he's my age
1. Yeah if they'd gone out faster they could've overcooked it, I'm just saying the fact they closed so fast means they were in better than 7:30 shape. Of course if they went out faster they would've have closed as fast, but I never said differently. Just that if they'd gone out 3s faster through 2k, maybe they would've run 7:29 instead, instead of knocking off 4s in the last 200m.
2. Ya I watched the race that's why I think they can run faster. They had so much left in the tank with 400m to go.
3. He outkicked Cooper Teare (NCAA mile record holder, 3:32 guy), Joe Waskom (2x NCAA 1500m champ, 3:33 guy), Luke Houser (2x NCAA mile champ, 3:35 guy), and Sam Prakel (3:50i guy) in the OT semifinals in a 3:38 race. I think he's lacked the fitness and tactical chops to win NCAAs, but with his 7:30/top 10 in XC fitness, he might be ready to overcome that.
Well since you say you get it, I volunteer this for the last time, If they are out faster, they run as maybe fast or slower.. In my opinion Out any slower, no way to run as fast or faster..
Out too fast? They might back into that mark, I doubt it. I think it was right for them, that day. I certainly am not giving guys who were high 7:30's to 7:40 guys anything faster than what they ran
The fact is, you run what you run, you don't get credit for what might have beens, there are lots of them there in them hills, last time I looked.
What’s with the vitriol toward Strand? Seems like maybe you’re worried he could challenge Kessler? It’s okay to have more than one young guy showing world class potential.
Well since you say you get it, I volunteer this for the last time, If they are out faster, they run as maybe fast or slower.. In my opinion Out any slower, no way to run as fast or faster..
Out too fast? They might back into that mark, I doubt it. I think it was right for them, that day. I certainly am not giving guys who were high 7:30's to 7:40 guys anything faster than what they ran
The fact is, you run what you run, you don't get credit for what might have beens, there are lots of them there in them hills, last time I looked.
What’s with the vitriol toward Strand? Seems like maybe you’re worried he could challenge Kessler? It’s okay to have more than one young guy showing world class potential.
Not at all, plus I already said if Strand runs under 3:50, I would clearly admit I was wrong, there is no vitriol, but there is only what you run, I actually like Strand's talent, any Miler type who can finish top 10 in cross? I think that indicates huge range and talent, I certainly do not worry about him challenging Kessler at all. Strand is really good, more good guys make things more interesting. The issue I clearly have is when 7:30 becomes a guarantee of sub 3:50.00. It's just the numbers. I am surprised there is not more Sahlman hype to be honest.
He ran 7:30. That is not nothing. That was a huge drop. Rupp was no miler but he ran 3:50 after 7:30. He's enormously improved and 3:35 already is equivalent to 3:52. If Milt hadn't said he took a bunch of time off in December, I'd think it was a slam dunk. As it is, we're in the dark about his shape but I bet he's in good shape, otherwise he wouldn't be in the race. Break 3:50 and you also as a bonus meet the World's qualifying time.
He is in the ncaa. The main reason he has to run is simply to get an ncaa qualifier. Coach Milt happy if he just does that.
Any qualifying for something bigger, or a record is extra. No need to complicate the simple, and actually difficult task of qualifying for ncaa indoor. 100s of runners fly into BU with this simple goal in mind.
Blanks has run under 13 flat for 5K, he does not nearly have to move to the roads yet at 22 and 9 months old.
That’s the issue, it’s seen as “having” to move to the roads as if you’re giving up. If anyone has any inkling of track speed they stay on the track until they’re no longer competitive. I’m not saying blanks can’t be great on the track but I think he could be a generational talent on the roads if he put his head down for 2-3 years and went after the new American half record. But the glory is on the track so it’ll never happen, which is why our marathoners can’t compete with the best. We have guys that can run 26:30 but no one that can break 2:08.
8th in NCAA xc in 28:53 (Blanks won in 28:37) plus 7:30.15 say that this guy is world's ahead of his 3:35 1500m pr. In distance running, there are no fluke races. If you're healthy, that is your level. You'd only believe this if he were from Philly or Jersey or coached by a friend of yours. Everyone else has done nothing in your world. Absurd to have that obvious a bias.
You can say and surely think what you want, he is a 3:35.x and 3:54.x until Saturday . I knew the time off excuse was already baking in. this is not a trip they would make if it was not very specific, you wouldn't think Sahlman should win a head to head here? he has 3.17 secs to get to 3:50.00. Strand? if you convert his best 1500? 3:52.x?
You have a point about Sahlman. He is a 1:45 guy already and 3:33, and he just ran a good double of 48.6 pr/1:16? 1:18? In fact, I had him as one of at least three collegians who are capable of breaking 3:50 right, with Green and Strand. It is just that the ease with which Strand ran that 7:30, how good he looked, and how fast he closed (basically hitting 60-61s the last few laps before closing in 54 with a 26 last 200m, very rare in a pr to have that kind of close, indicating more in the tank) tell me he's capable of this. And it does not take great 800m times to run a quick mile like this.
Well, he can get the NCAA qualifier with a 3:54 low, but Milt is not going to miss opportunities to get his top guys world qualifiers this year after the disaster last year when Parker Wolfe missed out on Paris because he didn't have the qualifying time, despite beating a somewhat out of shape Blanks at the Trials.
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