NXN Girls 2024 Predictions

Yep, but their last year was first on Glendoveer.

Nothing is more impressive than Tuohy’s 16:21 5k at Holmdel in my opinion but excited to see this next generation. Think even in the slop Hedengren might have a shot at her NXN record but will be tough.

Casey Clinger also ran at Portland Meadows

This seems to be a much more competitive era than what came before. This is probably the most elite field ever in girls xc at a national event. The girls with the NIL deals not surprisingly get interviewed the most and are also promoted the most in the secondary websites discussing the sport. The reality is that absent the clear favorite, who is Hendengren, there is very little difference between 2-10 in this setting under wet conditions. Truly any of them could win this. The dark horses of Ferebee, Huyler, Garces etc aren’t dark horses at all. Huyler is undefeated and put together one of the top 2 cross seasons in Oregon history. Ferebee and Garces are also undefeated. They just don’t get the hype of the ones with the corporate sponsorship.

Efraimson, Cranny, Baxter never ran on Glendover.

Correct.

They went 1-2-3 at Portland Meadows horse racing track in 2013.

NXN then had to relocate due to gambling issues related to the facility.

So, Glendoveer has been the NTN/NXN venue since December 2014.

Forecast for Saturday morning now has "light showers" predicted to begin around 6am. By 10 am race time, only 0.1" will have fallen. With temps in the mid-40s and only a slight breeze with no wind chill.

Thus, the grass will be wet -- but with no rain for the past week or more -- expect footing to be firm with maybe a few small mud puddles to dodge here and there. Don't think you need to be a strength-based "mudder" to handle these fairly good conditions.

In other words, expecting a fast one.

Should be fine for Englehardt, Hedengren and other speedier miler types. Pretty much have those two as co-favorites. They love to front-run -- which did in Leachman, Forsythe and Englehardt last year in the slop -- but maybe tomorrow will be the right time to use those tactics.

Regarding the CR/MR, don't think that was Katelyn's greatest race in high school. As mentioned above, her race at Bowdoin Park was probably her best and will likely stand 'till the end of this century. So, believe it could be reached, especially given Riggs came pretty close just a couple years back.

A plus for the young ladies is they get to run first as well. With pretty good conditions (certainly better than most years but maybe not as good as 2018) I agree the record could quite likely fall if she goes for it.

Bowdoin record also impressive but I think Holmdel is what was mentioned.

Yes, thx for correction.

If Tuohy's Bowdoin CR stands for the rest of this century, then her Holmdel CR probably lasts for another 100 years.

From watching past NXN videos, Glendoveer appears to be deceptively difficult, even in good weather with good footing. Along with the two short but steep uphills at the end, the "lollipop" segment of the course entails two sharp 90 deg turns which break up any rhythm one might have going. In muddy conditions, runners almost come to a complete stop -- or hang on to the fencing -- so as to not fall down while making the turns.

In retrospect, Katelyn's 16:37.8 record from 2018 is way out there, amongst her best hs races after Bowdoin & Holmdel. And, Riggs' 16:40 win from 2022 should be considered one of the greatest individual xc race performances by a US hs girl with initials other than KT.

no worries....recall Riggs also lost a few seconds late in that race when she did not initially follow the course toward the finish...however bad conditions get I feel they are always the worst for those in the middle of the pack as the leaders can choose their path much more easily...as I recall 2018 and 2022 had far better conditions that 2023, 2019, 2017

What is the point here? Like all sports and entertainment, media seeks out the well known stars. They are not looking for kids with an NIL.

If a newcomer, particularly an underclassmen wins the race, or sets a record, they will become the next star.

Of course brands are also going to seeks out stars for NIL to get most exposure, but that does not drive media exposure.

Ritzenhein and Leachman won national titles as sophs. Engelhardt is running in her 4th national xc meet and made Olympic trials in mile. Hedengren is the favorite, and has been at the top of the xc/track scene since fall '23. That's who people want to hear from.

Completely agree that all of the top 10 are contenders, particularly the undefeated ones from midwest. If they respond well to having competition, they can find a new level and spring the upset.

Yes. Ferebee is undefeated and broke state record set by Noe and broke NXR record.

It's true that there isn’t much difference between the girls ranked 2 - 10. But it's not true that "any of them could win this." The only way that one of the 2 - 10 girls can win NXN this year is if Hedengren has a bad day. If Hedengren runs as well as she's capable of running, all the other girls are running for second place.

Bold Predictions

1. (3) Jane Hedengren, senior, Timpview UT - WINS OUTRIGHT
2. (1) Sadie Engelhardt, senior, Ventura CA - Not in top 10
3. (2) Rylee Blade, senior, Santiago (Corona) CA - Top 5
4. (4) Addy Ritzenhein, junior, Niwot CO - Not in top 10
5. (5) Marissa Ferebee, junior, Pella IA - Top 3
6. (6) Elizabeth Leachman, junior, Boerne Champion TX - Not in top 5

12. (16) Sophia Rodriguez, sophomore, Mercer Island WA - Top 5 finish

Hello Embassy Suites in Tigard

Ferebee is undefeated. She is better than the 2nd best American in the NCAA. Hard to know what she is capable of.

Ferebee at hypothetical post race press conference:

"Amazing! Coach told me to put my nose between Jane's shoulder blades and follow her the whole race. So there I was at the end, and somehow I won in that little sprint. I can't believe I went that fast, in most of my meets this year, there was no one like Jane, so I didn't know what my real limit was."

Maybe unlikely, but this is how new hs stars are born and why they run the race, instead of just mail the medals to the rankings list.

We just saw an upset winner last year in Ritz, so it does happen.

Tuohy's races at Bowdoin and Holmdel were much better than her Glendoveer course record. If Tuohy had run as well at Glendoveer as she did at Bowdoin and Holmdel then her Glendoveer course record would have been around 16:20 - 16:25.

But since the course record is only 16:37, Hedengren is capable of breaking that if there isn't too much rain.

Ferebee dominated at NXR. I fully expect a top 3 finish. Her improvement from last year is mind boggling.

There was an upset last year because the 3 favorites ran dumb races.

Like I said "The only way that one of the 2 - 10 girls can win NXN this year is if Hedengren has a bad day. If Hedengren runs as well as she's capable of running, all the other girls are running for second place."

If Hedengren runs a dumb race then she can be beaten. That's the only way the other girls have a shot.

I can see all of your predictions possibly happening except Sophia Rodriguez in the top 5. That's pretty unlikely.