Will 3:26.00 fall in Brussels? Update: We doubt it as we've been told pacing lights will be set for 3:30.00

I have. Quite familiar with this one. Have you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG5OqO65_Xg

In this commentary from Steve Ovett and Peter Matthews, Ovett gives the 1200m time literally just after he goes past the 300 to go point. He's sitting in the stadium commentating, sees the timing splits (which we don't and there is no footage of) and gives the time of 2.46.34 having no idea what's going to happen in the next 300m right? You agree that Ovett is not just pulling a number out of thin air yeah?

So the only way that he doesn't run 39.66 is if the final time of 3.26.00 is incorrect - this is the only way. 2.46.34 was not beyond El G - he split faster in multiple races in his career (Brussels and Rieti in 01 and Rieti in 02 off the top of my head). For the final 300m split to be wrong you are simply contending the finishing time is actually wrong and not 3.26.00 - is that right?

Cram on this alternate broadcast below notes the clock doesn't stop as the first time he gives is "3.27...3.26..it must be the clock hasn't stopped" That being said with the split screen you can clearly see the clock is on 3.25 when he is only 3 meters away from the line. Based on this the given time of 3.26.00 seems plausible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyoRtYr8mdc

I guess then you should petition World Athletics to repeal this record if you think the final 300m split was incorrect - because he sure as hell crossed 1200m in 2.46.34, so if you really believe it's a 39.9 or not even sub 40 then that WR should really be 3.26.12 from Brussels in 01 - or did they get something wrong there too?

You should definitely call yourself "high school xc coach" in your petition though - that would strengthen your case.

how many bad splits have we seen over the years. even in the olympics. i don't care about those clocks. trial and error with a stopwatch tells the truth.

I’m with you. Every time I’ve taken splits from the video for El G’s world record, it is 39.9-40.0 for last 300 (and 53.4-53.6 for last 400). It’s a weird idea that somehow 2:46.34 is an unassailable split time for 1200 meters. I keep getting 2:46.0-2:46.1. It’s the final time we can have confidence in, not the 1200 split.

In his 2001 3:26.12, El Guerrouj appears to have closed in about 39.9 as well, where he was pushed to the line by Lagat.

Relating it back to the point of the thread, part of the argument against Ingebrigtsen challenging the record is the large gap between his closing ability and El Guerrouj’s. But the gap is not as big as those “official” splits make it appear. The reality is that Hicham’s 1500s were imperfectly split, and if Jakob (or anyone) will challenge the record, it will be with better pacing, giving up a second or more the first 400, then clawing that back (and probably a couple tenths more) the next two laps. While 39.9 off that pace is excellent, and it seems unlikely that even Hocker could exceed that by much, if at all, off a 2 second faster pace than Paris, a peak form Jakob might nip the record getting through 1200 in a well paced 2:45.8

The stadium altitude is favorable, but the predicted temperature seems too cool for the racers to remain warmed up enough, by the time the gun goes off, to run a fast first lap comfortably. I predict it looks a bit like Lausanne, never on pace, with Jakob winning near 3:27.0 and a bit of a rebound from Hocker…

peterpan, I wasn't making a comparison to Cole Hocker, I was using Cole Hocker as an example to show that you can't know for sure whether you can run a WR or a PB until you do it. That should have been imminently clear in the context.

And I know that "Oofe" was saying that he isn't equipped with the physical talent. But I disagreed. Jakob ran 3:26.73 when he wasn't at his peak. And as evidence of that, I mentioned that he ran 7:17 in the 3000. I also mentioned that I was uncomfortable saying he could run faster than 3:25.mid. Honestly, I don't think, you read my comment with much comprehension. Again, you never know what you're gonna get. Jakob could run a new PB or a WR. he could also run 3:29 (or slower). His consistency is his strength. All he needs are the right conditions and the several "little things" to converge and he could do something special. But it's rare to have it all come together at one time.

That's fine - as mentioned the only bad split possible is the finishing time. So start your movement to get the Rome WR extinguished from the books and let us all know how you get on with it.

lol. why is not possible for 2:46.34 to be wrong? They get those wrong ALL THE TIME

I don't understand this logic - and you inadvertently (I'm guessing) contradict yourself in this statement.

So you believe (at least this is exactly how it reads) that 7.17 better represents the "peak" of Jakobs ability right - and not 3.26.73 for 1500m? So therefore had we seen Jakob at his 3000m peak form in that Monaco 1500m race (or had he run a 1500m in Silesia instead of the 3000m) we could have expected the 1500m WR to go down?

Do I really have to point out the potential flaw in the logic there? Jakob competes in a range of distances right? And he could also compete in the 800m and the 10000m with relatively high competence too. But that competence is not equal across all those events right? You can't look at what he did over 3000m and simply say - well let's take this level (or peak) and translate it directly to a 10000m, or an 800m, or in this case the 1500m. A 3000m is twice as long as a 1500m - different energy system, strength, endurance, AT threshold profile etc. You don't think there is a chance that Jakob is, I dunno, better suited physiologically to the 3000m than the 1500m? Because I do.

You make this claim that he wasn't at his peak for the 1500m based on one thing - his finishing time in that race. It's the only thing you can, because you simply don't know this - you don't know if on the day of the 1500 and the day of the 3000 he was actually any fitter than the other and/or executed the race any better or worse than the other. You simply compare finishing times and because his 3000m is a superior mark you attach that to this "more representative of his true peak" narrative. But back to the above point this nullifies the possibility he simply may be better at some distances than others (like every runner in history kind of is) based on his physiology.

I don't get these sentences at all - "you never know what you're gonna get. Jakob could run a new PB or a WR. he could also run 3:29 (or slower). His consistency is his strength." Is he consistent in never knowing what you're gonna get? That's an oxymoron if ever I read one.

Lol. Do they? When? Give an example. This is the most absurd hail mary I've heard on a topic like this - "they get it wrong all the time", oh okay - right.

Again I'll reference the Ovett commentary with Peter Matthews. He's in the stadium right? Splits are coming up in-stadia on the clocks - we just can't see them and of course famously we have no context because for this race the clock isn't showing on the broadcast. Let's look at the case for the 1200m split being accurate vs not.

1) A commentator in the stadium gives this very specific split so he's seen it come from somewhere - he hasn't just gone "2.46.34" as an arbitrary number

2) This time we know El G was capable of. If Ovett had said "2.42.59" then I think we can safely assume it's wrong. Fun fact - in Zurich later this season El G runs 3.26.45 and his 1200m split is 2.46.49. There is zero reason to believe this isn't accurate.

3) Matthews, just before Ovett gives the split, says that he was 2.33 at the bell. So to run this 100m segment in about 13 seconds fits perfectly with the pace he's running in the last lap and the 1200m split.

Your case is what - "when I start my stopwatch as he goes past the 1500m start and stop it at the finish I get 40.0 seconds".

My dude, you are embarrassing yourself. I get it - you've taken a stand, you don't want to back down but come on - you have no case here and you are bringing a plastic spoon to a knife fight on this one. Just stop.

I think its a bit too late in the season for a world record.

If the WR falls, it will be Jakob.

To elaborate here, I wonder what 800m ability is the bare minimum necessary (I say ability as opposed to personal best as they may differ) to run 3:25.99. You might say this is not relevant. Yet it appears as if it is relevant indeed. It appears to be what is preventing the fastest man in history at 3000m, a man who has run about 5.5 seconds faster than Hicham at 3000m, and a man who can likely run more than 10 seconds faster than Hicham’s 12:50, from running under 3:26, or even so far getting real close to it. What can Jakob run for 800m? Surely under 1:45. What could Hicham run? Surely under 1:44. It is irrelevant to me what they did at the distance, as I am referring to ability. Anyway this seems to be a limiting factor and of course Kiprop had real 800m ability, as did Ngeny to some extent.

you haven't watched many track meets to think a split that comes up away from the finish line is always going to be accurate. im over this argument.

Not a chance...I'd say there's a considerably greater chance of the 800m WR falling, and even those odds are slight given the frequency of racing shone by competitors throughout this LONG season (don't think we'll see another sub-1:42).
But, while everybody is fried, or at the very least "crispy," Nuguse has the best chance of succeeding in Brussels, riding the upswell of confidence from his last outing...(though I naturally foresee a time quite a distance from the WR, perhaps 3:27-mid...with Jakob being the "next guy" in 3:27-high).
NEXT year, in a non-Olympic year, at this very same meet...yes, we might just see that WR drop.
And perhaps next year, Kerr will find a new reason to dodge.

I have to strongly disagree that el G was more of a 800m runner. He had decent 800 speed but wasn’t competitive / didn’t compete in that event and has a PR of 1:47! Could he run an 800 faster tuan 1:47 obviously but he cared about it far less than the 5000m where he won olympic gold and WC Silver not to mention numerous diamond league races and his PR of 12:50 was the 6th best for the 5000m back in 2003

El G was more focused on the 1500 but how does that differ from Jakob

Yes, El G and Jakob are both relatively strength oriented for 1500m runners, but Jakob's over distance prs suggest he is even more strength oriented.

El G's 800m pr means absolutely nothing. I have no idea why people keep coming back to it. He closed the 2004 1500m in 1:46 for crying out loud.

The chance for a WR is less than 1%. Come on, Zürich has shown nobody has the form to do it. 8 days later? - please.

Diamond Leagues? You better check that.

And he was 7th for the 5000m.

Salvatore.

The last 2 races have gotten slower due to fatigue.

Not only will there be no WR but it's unlikely they'll break 3:28.

Two reasons:

1. a previous poster said El G didn’t care about the 5000 and was more of an 800 runner. They also said he was a 1:43 800 runner. I was pointing out he was way more serious about the 5000 than 800.

2. Like Jakob, El G’s actual 800 speed was faster than his 800 PR would indicate.

El G is the current 1500 goat, he may have faster finishing speed than Jakob but they are far similar runners than many on this board gove credit. El G was not a 1500 runner in the style of Coe or Cram. He is far more similar to Lagat, Morcelli, and Jakob.