I think he was embarrassed and threw that little white lie out there to cover himself. I have a much more plausible explanation - he ran several rounds after a season of plenty of racing (not much rest) and got outgunned by a guy with a better kick.
But the race itself was really far below his normal level. Something was definitely off. I think lying about this is so serious, I wouldn't entertain such a suspicion. At that point I think civilized discourse starts to break down, and in the end everyone is just a liar and a cheater.
JI hasn't had problems tearing into himself when he underperforms, he's a harsh critic of himself, and he wouldn't make up such a lie, imo.
Dude some of these guys are massive narcissists and will say anything to protect their egos. I don't even care about it - I'm just interested in who can walk the talk.
I brought it up because I distrust the conversion, given how far Nuguse has ever been from such a 1500m time. If converted mile PRs are far better than, actual 1500m PR, they are suspect.
Admittedly, 3:28.79 isn't that unrealistic, but I think I saw some people claiming it was well below 3:28.
Dude some of these guys are massive narcissists and will say anything to protect their egos.
I have higher opinions about the athletes, then, and I think lying about this is beyond the pale. Also, Jakob criticizes himself harshly, so doesn't fit the 'narcissist' bill. Large ego, sure, but also self-critical.
I brought it up because I distrust the conversion, given how far Nuguse has ever been from such a 1500m time. If converted mile PRs are far better than, actual 1500m PR, they are suspect.
Admittedly, 3:28.79 isn't that unrealistic, but I think I saw some people claiming it was well below 3:28.
Dude some of these guys are massive narcissists and will say anything to protect their egos.
I have higher opinions about the athletes, then, and I think lying about this is beyond the pale. Also, Jakob criticizes himself harshly, so doesn't fit the 'narcissist' bill. Large ego, sure, but also self-critical.
I didn't find it credible because 1) we didn't hear about it before the final, 2) he lined up to race so clearly he believed he was ready to win, 3) he crushed that 5k convincingly. A sick runner would not have gotten better and looked that good after running rounds and giving it all in a final. 4) he is a narcissist and naturally sought to cover his ego.
Admittedly, 3:28.79 isn't that unrealistic, but I think I saw some people claiming it was well below 3:28.
I think what you say was some people using the logic that "it converts to 3:28, but I like him and think he's better than his times have shown, so I'm going to take off another second or two."
Also a fan of Kessler and want him to do well, but I'd consider Top 6 a huge win for him. Honestly just making the finals is more than I would have predicted back in May, but he has had a great season.
If we're gonna make bold predictions, let's make bold predictions. Here's your finish order:
Dude some of these guys are massive narcissists and will say anything to protect their egos. I don't even care about it - I'm just interested in who can walk the talk.
I get it that you don’t care about it, and it can be a lot of reasons to not be interested in narcissism. But I get a suspicion that you haven’t studied the matter all that deeply, and are throwing around a psychiatric term a little easily..?
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
How is JI not heavy favorite in all those scenarios???
As for Budapest, no I do not believe Jakob was sick.
I think this is quite petty. He said flat out that he had a sore throat and a slight fever for a few days. Making up a fake illness would be completely unprofessional and out of character, and would kill his credibility for good.
It is a cold hard fact that Jakob has closed their PB gap.
You mean Kerr? I would really like seeing your maths here. Kerr's PB on the mile is 3:45.34, Ingebrigtsen is 3:43.73, 1.6 seconds better, even though his mile PB isn't particularly strong. And he has improved by a lot since then.
Even Nuguse is 3:43.97. Could you help me convert those mile times into equivalent 1500m? If Kerr has closed the gap, then Nuguse is more than a second ahead of JI, by that logic.
Kerr wasn't going for a time, he was just looking to win a race and did it with ease. He was probably going a second faster if he needed on that day and he wasn't at his peak
Admittedly, 3:28.79 isn't that unrealistic, but I think I saw some people claiming it was well below 3:28.
I think what you say was some people using the logic that "it converts to 3:28, but I like him and think he's better than his times have shown, so I'm going to take off another second or two."
I don't know about this. His enroute time was 3:29.10, and then he closed the last 100 super fast and almost caught Jakob. I find it hard to believe someone could do that and only run 0.3 seconds faster without that last 109m.
The 1.08 conversion is the most widely accepted and has been for years, and that converts him to 3:27.38. Given how close he finished to Jakob, and the PBs of the other men to run under 3:45 (3:26, 3:28, 3:26, 3:27), that seems like a very realistic figure. I'm not a believer in the 3:26 conversions, and I could see 3:27-high (given elites have very high endurance, 1.08 may be aggressive for them), but 3:28-high is far too conservative.
As far as the original topic: Jakob is the man to beat, Kerr is the top contender, and both Nuguse and Hocker have reasons to be considered a dark horse. Tim is the other big medal contender but I have a hard time believing that medal could ever be gold. Komen also on the list but has yet to perform in a big race like this. In a slow enough race it becomes anybody's game but Kessler seems the most likely to enter the conversation in that case. Highly doubt we will see any slower than 3:32 for the win, however.
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Right and he has not looked as fit since so that is silly to bring up.
Kerr has never in his life looked like a 3:43 guy.
I think the version of Kerr that won in Budapest and 2024 Pre may have had a 3:43 in him, especially in that perfect 2023 Pre race. But like Nuguse it would be an extreme outlier, while for Jakob it's just about his average performance in a paced race.
Kerr also ran the third fasted ever 2 miles this year and did it indoors, looking like a stroll.
I am not saying Kerr is going to win but thinking Jakob just has to run a time to win is probably misguided imho. I can see a Cram v Aouita 1985 type race if JI does try that. Here's hoping it will be epic.
Kerr also ran the third fasted ever 2 miles this year and did it indoors, looking like a stroll.
I am not saying Kerr is going to win but thinking Jakob just has to run a time to win is probably misguided imho. I can see a Cram v Aouita 1985 type race if JI does try that. Here's hoping it will be epic.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
Your scenario 3 is flawed:
- there is a huge difference between 3:29 and 3:32. 3:32 is the pace of the heats, all finalists can pretty much handle it. 3:29 or under has officially only been achieved by 6 of them. The "kicking ability" , number of athletes on the final stretch and ways to get out of a boxed-in situation would be dramatically different between a 3:29 and a 3:32 race.
- the assumption that "no one can match his (Hocker 's) kick off a manageable pace" is unproven. He has raced so little at the international scene that it is not possible to predict.
you have to wonder how much Jacob took out of the other runners legs in that semi. To me, that's exactly what he was trying to do. You could tell he was gauging how uncomfortable that effort was putting everyone in. Beat them down a little, and then beat them down some more in that same type of race for the final. That's the way i'd imagine he'd love to win (showcasing he's the strongest).
This post was edited 8 minutes after it was posted.
It is a cold hard fact that Jakob has closed their PB gap.
No, it’s not. 3:45.34y is worth 3:28.82 in World Athletics points (1262) or 3:28.65 using the classic 1.08 conversion. That’s ~.4 faster than his 3:29.05 (which remains his actual PB, actually) and Jakob has lowered his 1500 PB by .41. I don’t know who’s going to win tomorrow, but that statement is bull.
You have to wonder how much Jacob took out of the other runners legs in that semi. To me, that's exactly what he was trying to do. You could tell he was gauging how uncomfortable that effort was making everyone feel. Beat them down in the semi, then beat them down some more in the final. i'd imagine that's the way he wants to win, showcasing he's the strongest runner.