Their best strategy is pulling a Tonya Harding on Jakob
Their best strategy is pulling a Tonya Harding on Jakob
socalcush wrote:
always fun to speculate, but unfortunately your post also shows the inherent problems with our american 1500 runners: they virtually have no chance to actually win--pretty sure none of them could win in a centro-style race, nor a 3:28 race. they have to rely on some circumstances and some luck; none of them can control a race (at least not at this level). that's not necessarily a complete criticism of them--it's clearly the most difficult skill in mid-d running (even el g and morcelli struggled with this, as did coe/ovett and many others), and it's still what makes jakob a favorite every year, despite his struggles with scottish kickers.
my bet: although hocker won at the trials, i think nguse has a better shot at medaling, and kessler will be lucky to make the final (despite his recent prowess in the 800). if i had to make a choice right now: a 3/4/10 finish for the americans. i'd be happy to see all of them prove me wrong, though...
The 1500m is always a crapshoot at a global championship. Why is the 1500m a crapshoot? Because EVERY SINGLE ONE of those finalists believes they have the best kick. And almost every one of them is right on a given day. Any one of the 12 finalists has the potential to get a medal in the right race. The winner tends to be 1 of 3-4, but absolutely nobody is a lock for a gold medal (or any other color). Jakob is a prime example of that in the last 2 WCs. His forte is a fast pace so he has tried to keep it fast and it has served him well.
Currently, for the Americans, I would put Hocker's chances slightly higher than Neguse's, but wouldn't be shocked either way. This is because Hocker has consistently had the better kick. However, Neguse has held on better in faster races, but not the best kick. This year Hocker ran 12:58, dominated the trials 1500 from 250 out, AND ran a 1:45 800 for a decisive win (2nd to last with 200 to go, deftly weaving through everyone). He has great endurance, great kick and is peaking at the right time. Kessler is a wild card in my book, but I'd be surprised to see him beating the other 2 Americans, so his medal chances are slim.
It should be a great race and I hope all the contenders make the final without injury, falls, etc.
Maxwell Gem wrote:
We’ve hit a point where if you’re not top 3 at the Bell, the odds are greatly against you. In fact, I predict that whoever is leading at the bell takes the W as the pace will be hot enough that even making up a few steps will be huge. I think the backstretch of the last lap will be more interesting than the homestretch.
Jakob will dial down the pace and hold off a hard charging Kerr around the last bend.
Bump
socalcush wrote:
always fun to speculate, but unfortunately your post also shows the inherent problems with our american 1500 runners: they virtually have no chance to actually win--pretty sure none of them could win in a centro-style race, nor a 3:28 race. they have to rely on some circumstances and some luck; none of them can control a race (at least not at this level). that's not necessarily a complete criticism of them--it's clearly the most difficult skill in mid-d running (even el g and morcelli struggled with this, as did coe/ovett and many others), and it's still what makes jakob a favorite every year, despite his struggles with scottish kickers.
my bet: although hocker won at the trials, i think nguse has a better shot at medaling, and kessler will be lucky to make the final (despite his recent prowess in the 800). if i had to make a choice right now: a 3/4/10 finish for the americans. i'd be happy to see all of them prove me wrong, though...
Bump
Very good ideas OP. You called it!