Cade Flatt will be the first under 1:40 for the 800m.
Hell no he won't LMAOOO, that dude peaked in high school and it's painfully obvious. If anything Sumner is way more likely to get around that level but even then, we'll just have to see. I think Sumner could maybe run ~1:42 or better in his prime. He could probably pop a 44 in the 400M for fun tbh
... "Once 400m WR becomes 42.50 and it takes 43.50 to make the WC final, some of the 44s runners might considering training for the 800m and facing the pain." ...
That isn't happening in our lifetimes and likely never.
Letsile Tebogo seems like the most likely candidate at the moment. 19.50s 200m PB, 44.29s 400m early in the season.
Because sadly for Juantorena he wasn't a 3.33 runner... :D
(I wonder if he could even have run 3.43?)
Well he ran 3:45.5 in 1983, in his only ever 1500m race, when he was in his thirties and a shell of his former self.
Yeah the (somewhat known by track nerds) "comeback to L.A '84" where he believed he was going to run the 1500m and started by running an alleged 3.45 in Havana (even though it's not recorded/listed anywhere on his IAAF/WA profile). He also claimed he had "In the first six months of this year, already had run more than 1,240 miles." which despite my respect for the great man, I would have to call absolute bullsh-t on. You ran 206 miles a week for 6 months of any year? 330km a week training for the 1500m? Uggh, that's a no, no you didn't.
But he did run 1.44.88 in 1984 at age 33 so it doesn't appear like his condition would have been that bad in '83 - of course Cuba boycotted 1984 which scuttled his dreams of taking down Coe.
Either way, given that he only managed a 3.45 off 200mpw, it's doubtful he would have run that much better in 1976 when he was obviously still doing a ton of training for the 400m. Either way, I feel very confident in betting my house that Alberto Juantorena was never running under 3.35 for the 1500m ever.
I don't know if he was ever supposed to run under 1:40, but he surely had the potential to run a lot faster than he did.
He started athletics relatively late (was a teenage basketball player), and was hampered by injuries throughout his career. He missed out on the 1972 400m final by 0.05 seconds after just one year of serious training.
He missed most of 1975 because of two operations on his feet, and in 76 won Olympic gold in the 800m and broke the world record in 1:43.5 just three months after his first 800m race. The next year, he lowered his WR again despite more foot problems, which he had another operation for at the end of the season and thereafter was never the same again.
Of course, he was probably on drugs I guess, being Cuban and with a Polish coach.
Look at him running 1:44 flat here, despite jogging the first 500m.
P E R S O N A L B E S TOutdoorDiscipline Performance Wind Place Date Records Results Score400 Metres 44.26 Olympic Stadium, Montréal (CAN) 29 JUL 1976 ...
What a meet that was in 77 in DDorf. Alberto runs 1.44.04 off 52.6 or so just ambling and your namesake Ovett runs 3.34.77 after tiptoeing the first 1200m before dropping a 12.6 from 13-1400m and waving up the homestright. Oh and he forced Walker to just step off the track in complete disconsolation. What a time to be a fan of the sport.
Some people think Arop has the capability. His body type is very close to Rudisha though Arop looks stockier in recent photos (compared to Rudisha in his prime.) Arop is listed at 6'4" 172 lbs, Rudisha 6'3" 168 lbs. The word is Arop trains consistently and is level headed, two traits which IMO are crucial. At 25 years old Arop is IMO still not quite at his prime physically. My thoughts are most athletes can stay at their physical peaks into their 30s but don't because of burnout.
Arop can go 1:41. Whether it happens, remains to be seen.
Prior to his WC win, he kept dying after 700m ala Johnny Gray. Also, he lacked the elasticity of Rudisha although still a very smooth runner.
His 400m speed is sufficient. This season his 1,000m sends out good signals. So yeah, dude has the talent to run 1:41.
Some people think Arop has the capability. His body type is very close to Rudisha though Arop looks stockier in recent photos (compared to Rudisha in his prime.) Arop is listed at 6'4" 172 lbs, Rudisha 6'3" 168 lbs. The word is Arop trains consistently and is level headed, two traits which IMO are crucial. At 25 years old Arop is IMO still not quite at his prime physically. My thoughts are most athletes can stay at their physical peaks into their 30s but don't because of burnout.
Arop can go 1:41. Whether it happens, remains to be seen.
Prior to his WC win, he kept dying after 700m ala Johnny Gray. Also, he lacked the elasticity of Rudisha although still a very smooth runner.
His 400m speed is sufficient. This season his 1,000m sends out good signals. So yeah, dude has the talent to run 1:41.
Yeah that's a tough one. All your points are valid - he's run 46 flat and 2.14 for the kilo which are really really good, but there is a reason only 4 people* have ever done it - it's insanely hard to do. (* I'm taking off Amos because there is no way as an 18 year old he ran under 1.42 without being off his mind on something and we have no reason to believe his legitimacy now he's been caught)
I personally see Arop more as a career low 1.42 guy (1.42.2X, something like that) - but that's just me. And not like there would be any shame in that - he may end the season as one of the select few (I believe it's only Rudisha and Korir) to hold the World and Olympic titles simultaneously which puts him in rare air. I have no problem in someone saying he's a candidate as he is the best there is right now.
Yeah that's a tough one. All your points are valid - he's run 46 flat and 2.14 for the kilo which are really really good, but there is a reason only 4 people* have ever done it - it's insanely hard to do. (* I'm taking off Amos because there is no way as an 18 year old he ran under 1.42 without being off his mind on something and we have no reason to believe his legitimacy now he's been caught)
I personally see Arop more as a career low 1.42 guy (1.42.2X, something like that) - but that's just me. And not like there would be any shame in that - he may end the season as one of the select few (I believe it's only Rudisha and Korir) to hold the World and Olympic titles simultaneously which puts him in rare air. I have no problem in someone saying he's a candidate as he is the best there is right now.
For me it's a lot simpler to say that Amos was the one man in history who got a 1:41 rabbit for a full 800m. He was clearly a huge talent (44.9 speed, consistent 1:42 guy for years), and then Rudisha as a rabbit was probably worth another 0.5.
I'm sure there are several other 1:42.5 runners who could've broken 1:42 if they got to chase Rudisha for 800m, but Amos was the lucky one.
And which time barrier do you see the most impressive one:
1. 1:39.99 @800m
2. 3:24.99 @1500m
So 0.92 seconds off a 800m race or 1.01s off a 1500m race? Definitely the 800
I think Rudisha could have run 1:40.3 had he been paced through 500, without 2 rounds in his legs, but I think El Guerrouj could have run 3:25.5 as well
Paavo Nurmi could have ran 3:24.5 if he had been born after the Vietnam War.
And which time barrier do you see the most impressive one:
1. 1:39.99 @800m
2. 3:24.99 @1500m
They’re pretty comparable and there’s no current trend that makes it seem like such times are going to be run anytime soon, and especially so in the 800m.
if coe, ovett and cram were all in good shape,
all three would be betting favorites to go 123 in the OG or world champs. in the 800
They’re pretty comparable and there’s no current trend that makes it seem like such times are going to be run anytime soon, and especially so in the 800m.
if coe, ovett and cram were all in good shape,
all three would be betting favorites to go 123 in the OG or world champs. in the 800
Yeah that's a tough one. All your points are valid - he's run 46 flat and 2.14 for the kilo which are really really good, but there is a reason only 4 people* have ever done it - it's insanely hard to do. (* I'm taking off Amos because there is no way as an 18 year old he ran under 1.42 without being off his mind on something and we have no reason to believe his legitimacy now he's been caught)
I personally see Arop more as a career low 1.42 guy (1.42.2X, something like that) - but that's just me. And not like there would be any shame in that - he may end the season as one of the select few (I believe it's only Rudisha and Korir) to hold the World and Olympic titles simultaneously which puts him in rare air. I have no problem in someone saying he's a candidate as he is the best there is right now.
For me it's a lot simpler to say that Amos was the one man in history who got a 1:41 rabbit for a full 800m. He was clearly a huge talent (44.9 speed, consistent 1:42 guy for years), and then Rudisha as a rabbit was probably worth another 0.5.
I'm sure there are several other 1:42.5 runners who could've broken 1:42 if they got to chase Rudisha for 800m, but Amos was the lucky one.
Is it not the most simple thing to say simply that Amos cheated and most likely was also cheating even back in 2012 when he allegedly was 18 and ran as fast as Seb Coe did, when his PR the season prior was 1.47.28?
I don't see Amos as a huge talent at all - his comical running form in the final 150m of races where his natural talent is being overridden by whatever mix of rocket fuel he was taking, makes that pretty obvious to me.
I mean a lot of these 1.42.5 guys had plenty of chances to chase Rudisha. He ran sub 1.42 a total of 7 times and 6 of those times were 1.41.54 or faster. The reason the only guy that did it was Amos, was because a) he cheated and b) it's really, really hard.
Here's my prediction. The more I think about it, the more I think it's just so hard to go out in 47-48 and come back in 51. I think it's more likely we achieve a breakthrough in training specifically for the event, and someone finds a way to minimize the 2nd lap slow-down. My prediction, it ends up being someone with a low-46 open 400, who executes a precisely paced race and rides the edge of the redline just right. Something like 24.4, 24.7 (49.1), 25.0, 25.8 (50.8) for a 1:39.9, I think that's physically possible but we don't know how to get there yet.
The huge hurdle for the event in general is that most athletes with the necessary 400m ability to be elite at 800m never move up. Imagine what the 10k would look like if 99% of those with elite 5k ability never competed.
This year? No. But in a couple of years? Not impossible for neither Hoare or Wightman. Why would it if you ask me? I do however see it more likely it will be Ingebrigtsen or Kerr.
Not gonna happen of course, but if Kerr were to break it Jakob would be suicidal lol
Here's my prediction. The more I think about it, the more I think it's just so hard to go out in 47-48 and come back in 51. I think it's more likely we achieve a breakthrough in training specifically for the event, and someone finds a way to minimize the 2nd lap slow-down. My prediction, it ends up being someone with a low-46 open 400, who executes a precisely paced race and rides the edge of the redline just right. Something like 24.4, 24.7 (49.1), 25.0, 25.8 (50.8) for a 1:39.9, I think that's physically possible but we don't know how to get there yet.
The huge hurdle for the event in general is that most athletes with the necessary 400m ability to be elite at 800m never move up. Imagine what the 10k would look like if 99% of those with elite 5k ability never competed.
The required ingredients for a sub 1:40 are:
1. World class 400 meter talent (44.5-45.0)
2. Ability to adapt to 800 training without sacrificing much 400 speed
So 0.92 seconds off a 800m race or 1.01s off a 1500m race? Definitely the 800
I think Rudisha could have run 1:40.3 had he been paced through 500, without 2 rounds in his legs, but I think El Guerrouj could have run 3:25.5 as well
Paavo Nurmi could have ran 3:24.5 if he had been born after the Vietnam War.
IF Paavo had been born after the Vietnam War ??? - Is that because he could have learned from Forrest, Forrest Gump - America's greatest distance man ?? Ready, Set - I GOTTA FIND BUBBA !! (and Jenny...afterwards) ...I guess 1.40 could be broken if instead of using wave-lights they announced 'Kiplimo bravo, Your fast-movers are inbound" ...I know I'd shave off a few seconds to avoid a napalmin' ...just sayin' ...
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Is it not the most simple thing to say simply that Amos cheated and most likely was also cheating even back in 2012 when he allegedly was 18 and ran as fast as Seb Coe did, when his PR the season prior was 1.47.28?
I don't see Amos as a huge talent at all - his comical running form in the final 150m of races where his natural talent is being overridden by whatever mix of rocket fuel he was taking, makes that pretty obvious to me.
I mean a lot of these 1.42.5 guys had plenty of chances to chase Rudisha. He ran sub 1.42 a total of 7 times and 6 of those times were 1.41.54 or faster. The reason the only guy that did it was Amos, was because a) he cheated and b) it's really, really hard.
There weren't really a lot of chances for 1:42 guys to chase peak Rudisha, that's why he was always winning by 20+ meters
Look at the start lists in the 2010-2012 Diamond Leagues when he was running 1:41 lows. There's Abubaker Kaki, Alfred Yego a few years past his prime, Bosse a few years before his prime, and a bunch of guys with 1:43 high-1:43 low PBs.
The speculation is an interesting topic but it overlooks that the present records were probably only achievable by doping. So we have the best athletic talent in history that was also likely doped. That will have been so for several decades. There isn't anywhere to go from here - unless the drugs are way way more potent than anything currently (or previously) available.
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