You don't know about whereabouts failures. You only know when they get three in a year and are suspended. Personally, I'd like to see it published when they miss a test so we can draw our own judgement.
Your standards of what 800 speed 1500m runners need are actually very similar. A 1:46-47 male is around 5-6 seconds off the world record (1:40.91), while 1:58-59 women are 5-6 seconds off the world record (1:53.28). The difference from common elite times is also similar. Sub-1:44 has been good enough among the men in recent years to contend (about 3 seconds off your speculative 1500m runner), while 1:55-56 will usually get you a women's medal, 2-4 seconds faster than your 1:58-59 runners. But when you look at it more carefully, you'll see that the Ethiopians have had 1:56-57 quality women running the 5000m and sometimes the 1500. You know because they were closing their 5000m races in 1:56-58. And really you can make a stronger case for the men needing really good speed, because while Jakob has run only in the 1:46s, Jake has run 1:43.65 and a host of 1:44s, Kerr ran 1:45.35, and many top guys previously have been 1:42-43 guys as well. Jakob is quite unusual. Lagat only ever ran 1:46, though he also closed a 1500m in 1:46. But most top guys have been 1:42-44. So, you do typically need really good speed in the 1500m at the top level.
I think it is true on the men side more than the womens side, so I think we are agreeing. How fast could Hassan have run an 800 last year?
So I guess what I’m saying is if you can get away with 1:59.0 speed and be a 3:53-4 type woman that signifies to me not a huge amount of speed is needed. These Ethiopian women can run both 1:57 AND 14:30s or 1:58 and 14:20s. Tough. On the men’s side, I think 1:46.0 is the absolute slowest you could be and be able to run 3:29.0. I think there are few Ethiopian men with those sort of wheels. Rojo thinks it’s coaching but the same coaches coach the men and women. And unlike the women who often start in the 800 and move up after junior success, men have to move up almost immediately or don’t event contest the 800.
Our best 1500m runners often are starting with lower mileage with decent (1:58) speed (Sinclaire, Nikki) or higher mileage with mediocre (1:59-2:00) speed (Shelby, Cranny, Schweizer, McGee, Purrier St. Pierre, MacKay). The former group is going to have to find a way to get a lot of stronger. The latter faces an uphill battle and unfortunately might be most competitive in the 3k for medals. Wiley is maybe most promising if she can align her plus speed with higher mileage in the coming years. Sinclaire/Nikki have a long way to go and aren’t so good at the 800 that it’s a gimme even if they get really strong (14:40) they’d be able to get to the level of Muir/Mageean(seemingly better speed and strength) let alone the Ethiopian/Kenyan women.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Nothing casual about those performances, they were working and sprinting and grinding!!
That was casual af, 1.35 slower than her outdoor PR and not even breathing hard afterwards. Hugging, kissing, smiling, no sign of pain while Americans are throwing up running a 4 flat. 🤣 World indoor will be Nikki, ESP and someone even slower than both of them who won't even run 4:04. 😝😂
Yeah just like Jess Hull not even breathing after her 8:20 NR other than peeing her pants. None of the elites show strain.
I was at an indoor track meet last night. It was an open event. There were all kinds of people running very normal times for HS and open runners. Nothing amazing. There were, all told, about 50 runners spread over multiple heats (and both genders)
Guess who won the fastest mile heat and the second fastest heat? The two Somali HS kids. They didn't run anything out of this world, just better than everyone else - open, HS, and collegiate.
They are 100% not doping and they are 100% not living in a "running culture." They are just the only two guys who were like 5'8 and 110 lbs (short guys with super long legs). Their Achilles tendons made up 75% of their lower leg with only tiny little calf muscles at the top.
They probably train hard too but lots of people train hard (and still suck). These kids did not suck.
Partly because they have zero idea what a tempo run is, they don’t plot their heart rate, and abstain from reading US-based books on coaching and running.
I am not saying they are "genetically gifted" in some sort of magical sense. I am saying that for men, the "normal body type" is like 5'5 and 120 lbs full grown. That is makes it a lot easier to find 1500m runners.
How many Americans are naturally that light? It matters. And you can't "starve yourself" down to their size (nor is that healthy).
My kids' friends are all athletes and all in good shape, but lacrosse, football, and basketball guys would not magically just become this body-type if they starved themselves...
This was said about the Kenyans until the dam broke. With Ethiopia we will have to wait a bit, but it will happen. I mean, Kenya's No. 2 U20 female runner, the one who finished 2nd to Haylom, was recentky banned. They were doping her as a teenager and that goes for all the rest. It is physically impossible for a clean runner to compete with EPO.
Partly because they have zero idea what a tempo run is, they don’t plot their heart rate, and abstain from reading US-based books on coaching and running.
It Makes Sense, why would much Faster Runners want to read about what slower Runners are doing for Training?
The 1500m is so competitive anyway. I also wonder about Muir, Hull etc. They would have been in with a medal shot in previous years, especially Muir. Whether with this slew of young, talented Ethiopians coming through that they’ll stick with the 1500 or look to other events. Though the 5k is stacked too though.
The 1500m is so competitive anyway. I also wonder about Muir, Hull etc. They would have been in with a medal shot in previous years, especially Muir. Whether with this slew of young, talented Ethiopians coming through that they’ll stick with the 1500 or look to other events. Though the 5k is stacked too though.
Muir had kinda the year from hell, and probably got as far as she could under a pretty speed-heavy/VO2 system. She is as fast/faster than these women (maybe not Welteji). Seems she is finally working on her strength (threshold+mileage), and that could pay huge dividends. I think Hull is closer to the Americans than peak Laura Muir and what we saw out of Mageean last year.
The 1500m is so competitive anyway. I also wonder about Muir, Hull etc. They would have been in with a medal shot in previous years, especially Muir. Whether with this slew of young, talented Ethiopians coming through that they’ll stick with the 1500 or look to other events. Though the 5k is stacked too though.
Muir had kinda the year from hell, and probably got as far as she could under a pretty speed-heavy/VO2 system. She is as fast/faster than these women (maybe not Welteji). Seems she is finally working on her strength (threshold+mileage), and that could pay huge dividends. I think Hull is closer to the Americans than peak Laura Muir and what we saw out of Mageean last year.
Yes Muir really suffered with the change (or lack of coach) and had a very inconsistent year but also showed brilliance at times.
I do wonder if Hull is slightly better at 3k plus. She’s always 6/7th in world championships and I wonder if that will slip more this year. She’s in excellent form just new talent coming through.
Mageen was the one I was missing - she had an amazing year and more to come I feel.
Good summary. I’d love to see Snowden have a jump this year!
a lot of posts here referencing EPO yet very few ethiopians are ever busted for drugs. seems like a lot of people are getting mixed up with their kenyan neighbours. completely different cultures, people, and attitudes towards cheating.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading that Ethiopia lacks the same amount of athletics infrastructure as Kenya, so while there may be far fewer drug busts, there’s also a lot less testing in general.
How many of the U.S. sub-4 high schoolers have been 1st or 2nd generation from Africa? Only one out of 25, if Matsatsa's parents were African immigrants. Zero if they weren't.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but I remember reading that Ethiopia lacks the same amount of athletics infrastructure as Kenya, so while there may be far fewer drug busts, there’s also a lot less testing in general.
Ethiopia doesn’t have the domestic testing might (ADAK) that Kenya has. However, Ethiopian elites are fewer in number than in Kenya and extremely concentrated (Addis), so that they are actually tested the most on average in the world (AIU can easily access the athletes). Kenya is more likely to have an athlete come out of obscurity, which brings the average amount of testing down.
I am not saying they are "genetically gifted" in some sort of magical sense. I am saying that for men, the "normal body type" is like 5'5 and 120 lbs full grown. That is makes it a lot easier to find 1500m runners.
How many Americans are naturally that light? It matters. And you can't "starve yourself" down to their size (nor is that healthy).
My kids' friends are all athletes and all in good shape, but lacrosse, football, and basketball guys would not magically just become this body-type if they starved themselves...
No that's not our 'normal body type' stop getting your 'facts' out of your nether regions.
we have all body types. You're only used to seeing the runners and now think that's the norm
Sorry to generalize. Of course a large nation like Ethiopia has "all body types." But the % of each body type is different in each country. Ultra-lean, smaller skeletons, longer leg-to-torso ratio, longer Achilles-tendon-to-calf ratio, and % of people born and living at altitude are all better than in America. We have a lot more people who are "huge." That is just our reality.
BTW, The highest mountain* in Ethiopia is, for example, higher than anything in the Rockies or Alps. Crazy, right? There are coastal regions, but the the average is still better for running.
This logic applies to all the factors I mentioned: obesity, blood chemistry (due to altitude), lean muscle-mass, limb to torso length, etc. Ethiopia is a better place to find raw talent in running. That's something Americans have to factor in when we try to win medals at the Olympic Games.
*Ethiopia lies at an average elevation of 1330 m above sea level and is therefore one of the highest countries in the world. The highest mountain peak (Ras Daschän) is at 4,533 meters.
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