In a championship race with no pacemakers and rounds, I don't think Jacob is the overwhelming favorite. Slight favorite at best. In a Diamond League race with pacemakers, Jakob can just run -- he doesn't have to race. In championship races, particularly if there are multiple attacks -- and there will be -- Jacob is vulnerable. Kerr and Wightman can both sustain their top speed for longer than Jacob. Nordas and Nuguse are also threats.
I think you (and a lot of others that mean the same) are wrong (although I also had to consider the same when Wightman beat a top peaked Jakob)…
There is some disadvantages by leading, but there’s plenty problems by running behind in a competitive field (running wide bends, fighting ++).
But my main argument is this: Jakob does not rely on pacers to run fast (2 sec faster than his opponents). His 3.27.14 in Silesia was on a really really bad day (his day form) -he got so much lactate early (despite not running faster 3 first laps than in Oslo, which was a “leggy run” because of not being fully recovered from his 2 mile WR) that he didn’t dare catching up with the pacers who ran ideally, and after finished he was more exhausted than ever before in a 1500m. But the point is this: He pretty much had no help from the pacers (except MacSweyn over about 150 meters). -Conclusion: Jakob can solo at least a 3.27 flat (maybe a 3.26.5), and the odds of crushing the field is very good!
There are always excuses for him.. he usually runs as well as he could. I really doubt he can do better than a mid 3:27 leading from the gun after rounds in summer heat. He simply hasn't done it before in a championship final and he won't. After giving it more thought, his best chance of winning is probably just in a lucky situation with the guys behind him shuffling around too much to compete for his shoulder and zapping themselves before the kick.
Anyone thinking he has a good chance off a slow pace is crazy. He doesn't have ElG wheels against runners with better 800 speed. This is how he may not even medal.
How was his consistency in 1500 championship finals?
Well, you (and others) have your theory, and that’s OK (although I would claim you are bad to adjust for context) -guess we just have to see how the consistency is in future champs…
There are always excuses for him.. he usually runs as well as he could. I really doubt he can do better than a mid 3:27 leading from the gun after rounds in summer heat. He simply hasn't done it before in a championship final and he won't. After giving it more thought, his best chance of winning is probably just in a lucky situation with the guys behind him shuffling around too much to compete for his shoulder and zapping themselves before the kick.
Well, Silesia was hot too… And although I admit one exposes one’s self by leading (f.ex when Jakob dragged Nuguse to 3.43.97, and would have lost if he was weaker / more plagued by his jet lag) a champs race seldom is a strung out line -one would be more than lucky to get Nuguse’s position in a whole race (or Jakob’s in the Olympics).
Jakob is so incredibly consistent it’s hard to bet against him. He’s what lost 2 races in 3 years? Just so happens both of them were 1500 world finals
Actually he has lost 5 if you don’t count semi finals and rounds. He lost 2021 Diamond League Final (to Tim, right after the Olympics when Gjert suggested he would never lose to Tim again), 2022 Worlds Indoor 1500, 2022 Worlds outdoor 1500, 2023 Worlds 1500, and an 800.
I think it should be clear from how important those races are that it doesn’t “just so happen” that his only losses except in an off distance are world/DL finals. He is gonna win 95% of the time when he doesn’t have to pace and lead and he is gonna lose a lot more than that when he does. Chalking it up to chance ignores how he isn’t good enough to just lead from 1200 out and win 100% - or even 50% - of the time against the current world milers. The comp is good and he isn’t like El G, head and shoulders superior to his contemporaries.
El Guerrouj was never good enough to lead from 1200m out either, or if he was he never tried it. In '99 and '01 he had his teammate pace him through 800, and in '97, '03, and '04 he sat in the pack for 700 before taking off and grinding down the field. I wish Jakob would try the latter but based on interviews he seems determined to lead the majority of the race. And in fairness it hasn’t worked out that badly for him (1 gold and 2 silvers is better than anyone else in the last 3 finals), but when you spend all year destroying everyone on the circuit, the expectation is that you will also win Worlds/Olympics.
Actually he has lost 5 if you don’t count semi finals and rounds. He lost 2021 Diamond League Final (to Tim, right after the Olympics when Gjert suggested he would never lose to Tim again), 2022 Worlds Indoor 1500, 2022 Worlds outdoor 1500, 2023 Worlds 1500, and an 800.
I think it should be clear from how important those races are that it doesn’t “just so happen” that his only losses except in an off distance are world/DL finals. He is gonna win 95% of the time when he doesn’t have to pace and lead and he is gonna lose a lot more than that when he does. Chalking it up to chance ignores how he isn’t good enough to just lead from 1200 out and win 100% - or even 50% - of the time against the current world milers. The comp is good and he isn’t like El G, head and shoulders superior to his contemporaries.
El Guerrouj was never good enough to lead from 1200m out either, or if he was he never tried it. In '99 and '01 he had his teammate pace him through 800, and in '97, '03, and '04 he sat in the pack for 700 before taking off and grinding down the field. I wish Jakob would try the latter but based on interviews he seems determined to lead the majority of the race. And in fairness it hasn’t worked out that badly for him (1 gold and 2 silvers is better than anyone else in the last 3 finals), but when you spend all year destroying everyone on the circuit, the expectation is that you will also win Worlds/Olympics.
Yep. He's so damn good.. the problem is he wants to be GOAT and for that that to be considered he'll need the WR and a WC gold.
I'll take an englishman over Jakob since he's lost the last two to one of them. Maybe Giles or Gourley this year. Jokes aside, he should take a break from having paced races and learn to run 3:27/3:28 by himself and then he won't have any trouble.
One of the mis conceptions is that kerr and wightman have the best kicks of the top milers when what they have actually shown with both world titles is they are great at positioning and finishing strong in a race that is wound up from a long long way out. It is yet to be proven that any of the 3 j's can kick for the win against the field in a slow tactical race . My main point being that it is/has been an advantage to all 3 of then for JI to lead. Josh wants it to be incredibly fast hence why he tried to get into J I's head about his tactics/weaknesses. Do they really want any runner with crazy gear change to be with them 100 out off a slower pace ? Remembering in 2021 Josh just about got knocked out in the heats and only scrapped through with a little q .
Actually he has lost 5 if you don’t count semi finals and rounds. He lost 2021 Diamond League Final (to Tim, right after the Olympics when Gjert suggested he would never lose to Tim again), 2022 Worlds Indoor 1500, 2022 Worlds outdoor 1500, 2023 Worlds 1500, and an 800.
I think it should be clear from how important those races are that it doesn’t “just so happen” that his only losses except in an off distance are world/DL finals. He is gonna win 95% of the time when he doesn’t have to pace and lead and he is gonna lose a lot more than that when he does. Chalking it up to chance ignores how he isn’t good enough to just lead from 1200 out and win 100% - or even 50% - of the time against the current world milers. The comp is good and he isn’t like El G, head and shoulders superior to his contemporaries.
El Guerrouj was never good enough to lead from 1200m out either, or if he was he never tried it. In '99 and '01 he had his teammate pace him through 800, and in '97, '03, and '04 he sat in the pack for 700 before taking off and grinding down the field. I wish Jakob would try the latter but based on interviews he seems determined to lead the majority of the race. And in fairness it hasn’t worked out that badly for him (1 gold and 2 silvers is better than anyone else in the last 3 finals), but when you spend all year destroying everyone on the circuit, the expectation is that you will also win Worlds/Olympics.
He didn't lead for the majority of the race in 2021.
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