Victor Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:23.4 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:08 A 22:23 8k has a 13:35 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. VK has a 13:24 PB on the track.
Patrick Kiprop Oct 27, 2023…. 22:31.6 66/61, 3mph wind (1 hour earlier than Women’s race, cooler conditions) TEMPERATURE ADJUSTED TIME: 22:17 A 22:32 8k has a 13:40 5k equivalent, on a similar course in similar conditions. PK has a 13:36 PB on the track.
Ok thanks. According the this VK and PK ran pretty close to their 'equivalent' 5k PRs in this race, eothout factoring in the temp. I guess that would make sense. Not sure what that tells us about Valby except maybe her 18:37 equivalent is pretty close to her 5k PR too?
If you assume PV’s race, being an hour later in the day (bit more solar radiation) and 6deg warmer had no additional effect on her than the conditions faced by the Kiprop’s, then it’s probably in the ball-park of being the same delta; VK’s delta was 11secs; PK’s delta was 4secs.
One thing that shook/out in previous discussions was that the women’s course overall distance was probably accurate (if not the split distances.). I’m not sure if anything was discussed about the accuracy of the men’s course (could it have been short?)
Ok thanks. According the this VK and PK ran pretty close to their 'equivalent' 5k PRs in this race, eothout factoring in the temp. I guess that would make sense. Not sure what that tells us about Valby except maybe her 18:37 equivalent is pretty close to her 5k PR too?
If you assume PV’s race, being an hour later in the day (bit more solar radiation) and 6deg warmer had no additional effect on her than the conditions faced by the Kiprop’s, then it’s probably in the ball-park of being the same delta; VK’s delta was 11secs; PK’s delta was 4secs.
One thing that shook/out in previous discussions was that the women’s course overall distance was probably accurate (if not the split distances.). I’m not sure if anything was discussed about the accuracy of the men’s course (could it have been short?)
I think the mens course was the same but with an extra lap around the main loop.
Over the past few days, much has been said on this forum about Valby’s SEC time being slower than last year, 18:37.5 vs. 18:25.9, in spite of Valby appearing to run very hard this year, to the point of red-lining.
This has been a bit of an enigma, because Valby has definitely looked a bit stronger and more fit this year, at least at Nuttycombe, where she decisively trounced Tuohy in a ‘tough-mudder’ battling windy and rainy elements, while besting Monson’s course record in the process.
Various reasons have been offered for the slower SEC time this year, including: (1) the 2022 course was (maybe) a bit short; (2) the 2023 course (sandy, a roller, etc.), though fast, was not as fast as the 2022 course; (3) 2023 was run approximately an hour later in the day, and in a bit more uncomfortable conditions (higher temp, no cooling breeze).
I now want to offer a reason not mentioned yet, which, although seemingly overlooked up to now, most definitely would have had an impact on the final results: the splits.
Here are the 3k splits for the 2023 race vs the 2022 race: 8:58 vs. 9:12. That difference tells most of the story.
Valby had three Kenyan’s hot on her tail up to about 2k, with only one remaining at 3k. The 2023 race was taken out much faster, earlier on, than the 2022 race; the price that was paid, in doing so, was the chief reason for 2023’s slower finishing time.
I now want to offer a reason not mentioned yet, which, although seemingly overlooked up to now, most definitely would have had an impact on the final results: the splits.
Here are the 3k splits for the 2023 race vs the 2022 race: 8:58 vs. 9:12. That difference tells most of the story.
Valby had three Kenyan’s hot on her tail up to about 2k, with only one remaining at 3k. The 2023 race was taken out much faster, earlier on, than the 2022 race; the price that was paid, in doing so, was the chief reason for 2023’s slower finishing time.
If your theory is correct then Valby had a big positive split:
I now want to offer a reason not mentioned yet, which, although seemingly overlooked up to now, most definitely would have had an impact on the final results: the splits.
Here are the 3k splits for the 2023 race vs the 2022 race: 8:58 vs. 9:12. That difference tells most of the story.
Valby had three Kenyan’s hot on her tail up to about 2k, with only one remaining at 3k. The 2023 race was taken out much faster, earlier on, than the 2022 race; the price that was paid, in doing so, was the chief reason for 2023’s slower finishing time.
If your theory is correct then Valby had a big positive split:
2022: 9:13/9:12
2023: 8:58/ 9:39
It didn't really look like that was the case....
I think it was more like 9:07 at true 3K and then 9:30 for the second (slightly longer) 3K. I think she did slow in final K.
If your theory is correct then Valby had a big positive split:
2022: 9:13/9:12
2023: 8:58/ 9:39
It didn't really look like that was the case....
I think it was more like 9:07 at true 3K and then 9:30 for the second (slightly longer) 3K. I think she did slow in final K.
Personally I think the splits were off and they went through in about 9:13 - but that still leaves a very big positive split which isn't what it looked like to me (9:13/9:24). Others had big positive splits too.
I wonder if the opening 800m or 1800 was somehow short also? Those times seemed a little fast across the field. V-L-O supposedly opened in a 2:15 800m.
I think it was more like 9:07 at true 3K and then 9:30 for the second (slightly longer) 3K. I think she did slow in final K.
Personally I think the splits were off and they went through in about 9:13 - but that still leaves a very big positive split which isn't what it looked like to me (9:13/9:24). Others had big positive splits too.
I wonder if the opening 800m or 1800 was somehow short also? Those times seemed a little fast across the field. V-L-O supposedly opened in a 2:15 800m.
It takes tremendous guts and a bit of crazy to push oneself to their edge of stamina on a cross-country course, particularly if they have never raced the course previously.
But if you have three Kenyans and Tuohy chasing you, you might have to gamble a bit.
Is this where one of Pre’s quips would be apropos?
It takes tremendous guts and a bit of crazy to push oneself to their edge of stamina on a cross-country course, particularly if they have never raced the course previously.
In her post-race interview, Valby said the course caught her at for-guard; she ran it with her team the day before, mistakenly thinking it would mostly be on the fairways.
It takes tremendous guts and a bit of crazy to push oneself to their edge of stamina on a cross-country course, particularly if they have never raced the course previously.
In her post-race interview, Valby said the course caught her at for-guard; she ran it with her team the day before, mistakenly thinking it would mostly be on the fairways.
she seems consistently not fully prepared for courses, no?
It takes tremendous guts and a bit of crazy to push oneself to their edge of stamina on a cross-country course, particularly if they have never raced the course previously.
Seriously, unlike the track which is consistently precise and repetitive, one is running with a lot more uncertainty on a cross-country course. That problem is magnified for the one running out front with no one to key off of, particularly without a watch or a clock on the lead cart.
One really has to run by feel, then. If that person has not previously raced the course, and the course is deceptive in difficulty like Panorama Farms, the challenged is magnified.
It’s a lot easier to have raced the course before.
well that might be on the coach. They have preview meets
seriously, something is not working. He has a top runner who doesn't seem to know the courses. This year he has a top team. He should make sure they know where they will run and how the course is laid out.
Seriously, unlike the track which is consistently precise and repetitive, one is running with a lot more uncertainty on a cross-country course. That problem is magnified for the one running out front with no one to key off of, particularly without a watch or a clock on the lead cart.
One really has to run by feel, then. If that person has not previously raced the course, and the course is deceptive in difficulty like Panorama Farms, the challenged is magnified.
I noticed in the men’s race the Kenyan that initially led the race, but didn’t win, checked his watch. Maybe it’s better not to know.
It's tough to square a big positive split for Valby with gaining 30 seconds on Lemngole and running the fastest final split in the field (next to Asekol).
It will be interesting to see what things look like at regionals.
Otoh its clear that most of her gain on Olemomoi and Lemngole was that they slowed big time (to about 5:30 mile pace).
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