Hmmm, yeah probably. 5k-10k definitely faster than lactate threshold but slower than VV02max. HM for most is slower than lactate threshold, but i think for world class 1hr or less maybe it's slightly faster that LT? Renata?
Regardless, the training is very similar, he should eventually have Euro records from 1.5k-10k. Probably HM (59:13, One hit wonder Wanders). Abdi's 203.36 M record is a big stretch. Cram's 1 mile of 3:46:32 is still a tough one too, partly because the mile is not run so often.
He should eventually have ERs for 1500m to 10K. EVENTUALLY? He already holds the 1500m, the 2000m, the 3000m (set on the way to the 2 mile WB) and the 5000m ERs!.
But no WRs? Even EVENTUALLY?
Are you aware that Jakob´s 2 mile WB indicates WR´s in the 1500m, the mile , the 2000m, the 3000m and the 5000m. And a time very close to the 10,000m WR.
And that his 3:27.95 equals a mile in 3:44.7? And Jakob was just short of Cram´s mile ER already last year?
Relax dude, you're making a lot of assumptions on what was stated. I think we disagree on what "eventually" means, but we do agree that he could have all Euro records thru 10k, this year in fact and he could probably have more WRs too but he won't because...
...he's very patient and plays the long game, he's been training/racing hard since he was what, around 16 yrs old when he broke 4. He's not rushed his records and stayed largely injury free as a result. Secondly he's said many times he's a 15/5k guy for now. Due to these first two reasons, he simply won't get many opportunities to attempt the 10k, and the mile is not raced that often, so again, few opportunities. Last i heard in 2024 he will again focus on 15/5 for the Olympics. If so that would mean at least 2025 for serious 10k attempts, and that doesn't mean he gets the record on his first attempt, who knows how long it takes. This is my idea of "eventually".
As for his 2 mile WB that "indicates" more records, Daniel Komen's monster 3k WR and 2mile WB also indicate a mile and 10k WR at that time. At age 20! But he didn't get either, and his 10k was pretty weak actually. Why? He didn't get enough opportunities partly because he rushed things, got burnt out, injured and had done his best by the time he was 24 or 25. Nick Willis set his 1500pb at age 32, and got Oly Bronze at age 33, he played the long game well. Not sure Jakob will race that long, but i think he may try for four oly's, if so he'd be about 31.
This post was edited 12 minutes after it was posted.
Reason provided:
Clarified point.
There’s “a lot of” hurdlers who could have beaten Jakob in a 600/700/800 and possibly (well maybe one or two) a 1000m too…
I’m not sure what Karsten Warholm can do in a 800m (although I think he beats Frank Kerley with at least 5 sec) -Karsten is somewhat an enigma. -His pr’s as a child and young teenager was really bad, especially in the 600 /800 / 1000m. And as an adult (decathlon athlete ) his 800/1000 and 1500m stayed ridiculously slow even compared to some other decathlon athletes… 2.00 min is just a round number. So my guess may be as bad as 2.02 or as “good” as 1.58. But I don’t know -Warholm is an enigma, and a really tough guy….!
You are saying around 1.50 -well, if we were speaking about Edwin Moses I would say yes…(Especially because I know the time -he ran 1.49 - well 1.48.98 to be precise) . But Moses was much slower than Warholm in a 100m all out, and therefore he (Moses) had a huge advantage versus Warholm in the 800m. -People think there’s an advantage for a 400m runner to have a good 100m pb when approaching the 800m, (a lot of unused reserve), but it isn't -it’s the other way around. -Check the statistics and you will be overwhelmed…!
Fun fact: Edwin Moses got an even bigger mouth than Warholm. -Around 1980 he told us that the newly improved WR in the 800m was weak, and that he himself probably could run sub 1.40. So what did he do? He ran 9 sec shy of this! (He also thought he could glide…)
OK, good arguments. I am going to check some statistics. A friend of mine, over 50 years ago, 48.60 at 400. Though he did'nt train very much ran 2:04. So may be you are right. Or perhaps not.
Thank you! Go and check, but not Warholm’s pb’s in the 100/200m -they are obviously too old, and I think one can use Raj Benjamin as a reference (his pb’s after seeing the two of them running together in the 400mh)…
I also managed to call Fred Kerley for “Frank” - no disrespect to him! To be frank I’m both senile and childish on the same time…
Fred Kerley is too fast twitch to run fast in the 800m (Although his brother got 1.46). But I really long for him to do a 43 flat in a 400m sometimes…!
Despite the fact that some would see me as a Jakob fan boy I’ve got this kind of scheme approach in my head: Jakob Ingebrigtsen is too fast twitch to have any talent for the 10000m, half marathon and marathon (as well as worlds xc). And he is certainly too slow to have any talent for the 100/400 and 800meters…
Jakob himself has said that he’s got hopes for the 10k, half and full marathon (yeah even thinks he could run way faster in the 800m) but I think he doesn’t know enough about the sport or his own capacity… (Somewhat alike Karsten Warholm who thinks he could be world class in the 800m despite every sign telling us he couldn’t run sub 2 in a million years)…
Unfortunately I’ve got this simplistic scheme / form in my head: 1. Jakob has too poor 100m speed to run a fast 800m. 2. Jakob is too fast in the 800m to run a fast 10000m…
I would love to be proven wrong. -Imagine Jakob crushing the 10k, half and full!
Here are my dreams for Jakob: Being clearly subordinate/ underdog in a 10000m (compared to Kiplimo, Cheptegei, Kejelcha) he hangs on for dear life in a global championship and gets a medal because one of the favourite miscalculates his efforts… (The same in a flat worlds xc course)… And that he breaks Mo Farah’s pb in the half.. (All three times so spent afterwards that he cannot speak for three hours…!)
What do you think -am I an idiot?
I think you might be delusional about his lack of capability lol
This post was edited 25 seconds after it was posted.
Jakob will break the 1500,3000 and 5000. He already owns the 2 mile. I think he could have went under 7:54 as he eased up with a few steps to go. Anyways I think he could be the first person to break 12:30 in the 5000. He breaks that 1500m record and i have no doubt he can do it
Are you aware that Jakob´s 2 mile WB indicates WR´s in the 1500m, the mile , the 2000m, the 3000m and the 5000m. And a time very close to the 10,000m WR.
What did Komen’s 3000 imply for the 1500, 5000, and 10000? Did he ever run those implied times?
Are you aware that Jakob´s 2 mile WB indicates WR´s in the 1500m, the mile , the 2000m, the 3000m and the 5000m. And a time very close to the 10,000m WR.
What did Komen’s 3000 imply for the 1500, 5000, and 10000? Did he ever run those implied times?
He got malaria, it f*cked him up, and he retired very young, never coming close to his potential at other distances. Komen's career was effectively over before he even reached Jakob's current age.
Jakob will break the 1500,3000 and 5000. He already owns the 2 mile. I think he could have went under 7:54 as he eased up with a few steps to go. Anyways I think he could be the first person to break 12:30 in the 5000. He breaks that 1500m record and i have no doubt he can do it
I do actually agree in everything you are saying here!👍
What did Komen’s 3000 imply for the 1500, 5000, and 10000? Did he ever run those implied times?
He got malaria, it f*cked him up, and he retired very young, never coming close to his potential at other distances. Komen's career was effectively over before he even reached Jakob's current age.
He did run his 10k PR of 27:38 in 2022 at the age of 26
I'd like to know these signs as well since Warholm has run 1.15 for 600m in training...
I have also heard about the 1.15 -can you confirm this (source). ..Well, there are many signs (have a look in the thread about Fred Kerley sub 2 or not / Karsten Warholm sub 2 or not -or something like that): The most important sign is Warholm’s estimated all out 100/200m speed- he is far to speedy to run good in the 800 meters…! But of course I might be wrong, but if you took a look at all other fast 400m runners pb’s (or estimated pb’s) in the 100m you would see that all the good 800m runners among them got (relatively) bad 100m speed…!
I don’t think u are an idiot but just underestimating him. Jakob has been called delusional forever about becoming the best and look at what hes doing now.
Hes not that fast twitch and lets not get it mixed up he is in fact a distance runner that regularly runs 100+ mpw. Im not sure about the marathon but for at least the 10k and the half marathon he definitely has amazing potential and his type of threshold training is actually really good for a longer distance (5k-half)
In my opinion, he could run the 10k in a couple years and easily hit the podium if he took focus off of the 1500/mile with his incredible endurance and base that hes got.
I have also heard about the 1.15 -can you confirm this (source). ..Well, there are many signs (have a look in the thread about Fred Kerley sub 2 or not / Karsten Warholm sub 2 or not -or something like that): The most important sign is Warholm’s estimated all out 100/200m speed- he is far to speedy to run good in the 800 meters…! But of course I might be wrong, but if you took a look at all other fast 400m runners pb’s (or estimated pb’s) in the 100m you would see that all the good 800m runners among them got (relatively) bad 100m speed…!
I don’t think u are an idiot but just underestimating him. Jakob has been called delusional forever about becoming the best and look at what hes doing now.
Hes not that fast twitch and lets not get it mixed up he is in fact a distance runner that regularly runs 100+ mpw. Im not sure about the marathon but for at least the 10k and the half marathon he definitely has amazing potential and his type of threshold training is actually really good for a longer distance (5k-half)
In my opinion, he could run the 10k in a couple years and easily hit the podium if he took focus off of the 1500/mile with his incredible endurance and base that hes got.
I don’t want to underestimate Jakob Ingebrigtsen. -I think he can become the goat, and beat multiple WR’s. But I think it’s a little unfair to take it as granted that he will SMASH in the 10k, half or full marathon. -I would rather like to have that in reserve, and regard it as a sensational and very pleasant surprise if it happens….
Here are my arguments for why it is so difficult to become a star both in the 1500m and the 10k (and above): I think you have to have inborn speed resources (800m speed) to beat the WR in the 1500m, and I think Jakob got that. But this speed resources collide with the extremely exceptional strength resources needed for a 10000m WR. -Jakob got of course exceptional strength to be a 1500m runner, but maybe not as good as for instance Jacob Kiplimo (who hasn’t the same 800m speed, and therefore not the same “collision”)…
Mo Farah is an example: He ran 3.28 twice, and I think he could have come close to the WR in the 5000m, but not in the 10000m (or half or full marathon). -He was just to fast in the 1500m…
Bekele, Kipchoge and Kiplimo are very good 1500m runners, but not in Mo Farah’s or Jakob’s class. (Theire pb’s 3.32/33). And even if they had gotten their 1500meters better, it wouldn’t have mattered, because they have had to come to these 1500m pb’s more from “above” / pure strength than Mo and Jakob (who has better speed)…
I see a very special hope for Jakob however (and therefore also somewhat for Karsten Warholm -600m), because even if I can’t find anybody among the male athletes who breaks the “rule of collision” (between fast and slow muscle fibres and so on) I have found one woman: Sifan Hassan! -She’s got 1.56 800m speed and a very fast 10000m pb, and even showed marathon potential…
So maybe you’re right about Jakob, but it would be extremely exceptional…!
I had a hard time following what the OP's point was (other than that JImay not be a world-beater at long distances, which seems like a relatively logical assumption until proven otherwise). But I do think he's right on this, at least in theory.
Imagine you have two runners who both run a bunch of 1,500 and 5,000 races, with similar conditions, at the same point in their training, etc. etc. If one of them ends up running 3:30 and 13:00 and the other ends up running 3:35 and 13:00, then in the absence of other information you'd pick the 3:35 guy to win a 10,000 race. Or at least I would.
Now, in the specific case of Ingebrigtsen vs Kiplimo, we do have a whole bunch of other information in addition to their times: e.g. Kiplimo's WXC performances and (most notably) the fact that his 5,000 is actually much faster; Ingebrigtsen's exceptionally good record at major championships. But all else being equal, really fast times at one end of a runner's range often predict lesser results at the other end of the range.
Why on earth would a 3:30/13:00 guy lose a 10k to a 3:35/13:00 guy??
because a 3:30/13:00 guy likely trains speed more, I'd take the guy with a better relative 5k pr as he probably is more endurance oriented, only having a 3:35 1500m
Are you aware that Jakob´s 2 mile WB indicates WR´s in the 1500m, the mile , the 2000m, the 3000m and the 5000m. And a time very close to the 10,000m WR.
What did Komen’s 3000 imply for the 1500, 5000, and 10000? Did he ever run those implied times?
You can´t compare Jakob to Komen.
Jakob has trained with great continuity for many years improving steadily from year to year.
So if Jakob stays healthy he will take all the said WRs one after the other.
By the way: I predicted that already in 2018 after his 3:31 in DL Monaco and double European gold.
i dont believe he will.hes good,but not that good,and even if he breaks records,he wont hold them for long.a lot of people think hes invincible,and even unbeatable,but hes not. a lot of people on here also seem to assume hes clean,and that all the africans are dopers.now if thats true,his body will break down sooner,rather than later.its a given,considering hes already been world class for 5 years.
"We shouldn’t disrespect Jakob Ingebrigtsen -he is a sensational talent (as a totally, not -restricted to- physicality). And to say Jakob could run fast in the 800m and the 10k is disrespect (with “fast” I of course mean WR kind of fast), because it would be sensational if he could match Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Aregawi, Kejelcha, Barega and so on in the 10000m (and above). And anticipating a FAST 10000m from Jakob is disrespect -it would be a sensation if this runner (who greets us with so many sensations) could do something so sensational..!"
Objectiveobserver´s comment:
Even though you are a selfproclaimed "fanboy" you are far too pessimistic about Jakob´s potential in the 10,000m.
Serious posters already last year stated Jakob had potential to run 12:40 in the 5000m (I agree with that). Everything equal a 12:40 converts to a 26:20 in the 10,000m.
If he focused on it I think he can run this time soon. And break the CURRENT WR in the 10,000m in the future.
If he joins a championship 10,000m in the future I think he will be one of the top gold favorites unless there have come some new very fast competition in the meantime.
I don´t agree he can´t match Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Aregawi, Kejelcha, Barega or other top runners.
Cheptegei: He has never been able to replicate his WR race from 2020 so he must be considered a 26:48 (second best time) guy
Aregawi: 26.46 PB
Barega: 26:44 PB
Don´t you think Jakob can run better than that? I acknowledge that they possibly can run faster in a real time trial 10,000m but I think Jakob will be even faster in such a race. Jakob is faster in the 5000m (except from Cheptegei´s WR in 2020 and Barega´s PB in 2018 which times they haven´t come near since).
Kejelcha: PB 26:49
Kiplimo: PB 26:34
I think both have potential to run at least 26:25 in the 10,000m after their impressive PB´s in the 5000m recently but so have Jakob as mentioned above. So I estimate that he currently is on the same level as them in the 10,000m.
You seem to theorize too much not seeing what going on right in front of your eyes.
Some few years ago (before the DL Florens 5000m in 2021) there were all kinds of explanations for why Jakob would never be able to beat the best East Africans but he did it anyway.
In my country of origin we have a saying:
The "science" says that the bumble bee can´t fly (too heavy) but it does it anyway.
"We shouldn’t disrespect Jakob Ingebrigtsen -he is a sensational talent (as a totally, not -restricted to- physicality). And to say Jakob could run fast in the 800m and the 10k is disrespect (with “fast” I of course mean WR kind of fast), because it would be sensational if he could match Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Aregawi, Kejelcha, Barega and so on in the 10000m (and above). And anticipating a FAST 10000m from Jakob is disrespect -it would be a sensation if this runner (who greets us with so many sensations) could do something so sensational..!"
Objectiveobserver´s comment:
Even though you are a selfproclaimed "fanboy" you are far too pessimistic about Jakob´s potential in the 10,000m.
Serious posters already last year stated Jakob had potential to run 12:40 in the 5000m (I agree with that). Everything equal a 12:40 converts to a 26:20 in the 10,000m.
If he focused on it I think he can run this time soon. And break the CURRENT WR in the 10,000m in the future.
If he joins a championship 10,000m in the future I think he will be one of the top gold favorites unless there have come some new very fast competition in the meantime.
I don´t agree he can´t match Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Aregawi, Kejelcha, Barega or other top runners.
Cheptegei: He has never been able to replicate his WR race from 2020 so he must be considered a 26:48 (second best time) guy
Aregawi: 26.46 PB
Barega: 26:44 PB
Don´t you think Jakob can run better than that? I acknowledge that they possibly can run faster in a real time trial 10,000m but I think Jakob will be even faster in such a race. Jakob is faster in the 5000m (except from Cheptegei´s WR in 2020 and Barega´s PB in 2018 which times they haven´t come near since).
Kejelcha: PB 26:49
Kiplimo: PB 26:34
I think both have potential to run at least 26:25 in the 10,000m after their impressive PB´s in the 5000m recently but so have Jakob as mentioned above. So I estimate that he currently is on the same level as them in the 10,000m.
You seem to theorize too much not seeing what going on right in front of your eyes.
Some few years ago (before the DL Florens 5000m in 2021) there were all kinds of explanations for why Jakob would never be able to beat the best East Africans but he did it anyway.
In my country of origin we have a saying:
The "science" says that the bumble bee can´t fly (too heavy) but it does it anyway.
I agree that I theorised too much. And I think your reasoning in this post is quite good. Further details: See my answer above to youraveragerunner2006
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