My original point was that she isn't good enough to win a NCAA title leading wire to wire. I proved that's been the case.
actually all you proved is she has not done (nor apparently tried to do) that. Has nothing to do with whether she has been good enough (or not good enough) to do that.
Yeah but instead of speculating that she could I have provided facts that show otherwise. I already said she's the favorite but you guys make it really hard to root for her. If she was so much better than the rest of the field in all of the instances I have provided she would have won in that manner already. Watch the 2022 World womens 1500m final. You're telling me that she can run and win in a similar fashion for 1500m and 5000m in the same meet?
It is ok if she isn't at the level where she can run away from the field from the beginning of the race TWICE. You guys are fighting to make a uphill argument making me sound like a hater lol. Look at all the guys who set ncaa mile/1500 records. Yared ran 2 records solo after winning a NCAA title and making a olympic team and didn't win another one. The year Cooper ran 3:50 why wasn't his strategy to just gap everyone? You guys aren't respecting the rest of the NCAA which is foolish. Especially at 1500m. The 5k is probably her best bet to win in solo fashion but the issue here is if Valby is healthy no way she solos this race in that fashion.
actually all you proved is she has not done (nor apparently tried to do) that. Has nothing to do with whether she has been good enough (or not good enough) to do that.
Yeah but instead of speculating that she could I have provided facts that show otherwise. I already said she's the favorite but you guys make it really hard to root for her. If she was so much better than the rest of the field in all of the instances I have provided she would have won in that manner already. Watch the 2022 World womens 1500m final. You're telling me that she can run and win in a similar fashion for 1500m and 5000m in the same meet?
It is ok if she isn't at the level where she can run away from the field from the beginning of the race TWICE. You guys are fighting to make a uphill argument making me sound like a hater lol. Look at all the guys who set ncaa mile/1500 records. Yared ran 2 records solo after winning a NCAA title and making a olympic team and didn't win another one. The year Cooper ran 3:50 why wasn't his strategy to just gap everyone? You guys aren't respecting the rest of the NCAA which is foolish. Especially at 1500m. The 5k is probably her best bet to win in solo fashion but the issue here is if Valby is healthy no way she solos this race in that fashion.
I did not say that. I think her best strategy for the 1500 is to drive the pace hard. O'Sullivan, Howell, and Bott have the best pure kicks I think (and I think we have seen them). But, in the 5000 I think her best strategy is to not lead until she makes a final move (assuming she is capable - and I am not saying that is a given after the 1500). If someone else thinks she can run away from the field in both races well I just do not agree.
I was stunned how touhy ran the 1500. Very poor. Shows me she is not nearly as seasoned as she should be by now. A lazy start...having to back off to last?...sort of embarrassing.
May she still has no clue how to race still. It cost her the 3k indoor to roe.
I was stunned how touhy ran the 1500. Very poor. Shows me she is not nearly as seasoned as she should be by now. A lazy start...having to back off to last?...sort of embarrassing.
May she still has no clue how to race still. It cost her the 3k indoor to roe.
The 3k race you mentioned vs. Roe happened over a year ago in March 2022. Apparently you missed the indoor 3k race THIS YEAR as well as the the indoor 5k. Tuohy dominated both of those races even though it was her first time racing at altitude. You don’t even want to know what she pulled off in the XC championship last fall. She knows how to race. Also her name is spelled TUOHY. Not knowing the facts about her races and incorrect spelling of her name….it’s sort of embarrassing.
I'm a huge Tuohy fan but I have to agree about her lack of experience in a slow 1500. She can't afford to give up a big lead and hope to blow by everyone in the last 150. A fast 1500 gives her the best chance for the win but then makes it much harder to get the double. Best case scenario is Tuohy stays near the front in a slowish 1500 but does not lead until 400 to go. Then wins with a long kick in a 4:10 - 4:12 time and stays relatively fresh for the 5.
I'm a huge Tuohy fan but I have to agree about her lack of experience in a slow 1500. She can't afford to give up a big lead and hope to blow by everyone in the last 150. A fast 1500 gives her the best chance for the win but then makes it much harder to get the double. Best case scenario is Tuohy stays near the front in a slowish 1500 but does not lead until 400 to go. Then wins with a long kick in a 4:10 - 4:12 time and stays relatively fresh for the 5.
My opinion is that she needs to give the 1500m her all and that means making it fast. Conserving for the 5k can't really be the focus or she might lose the 1500m and still be tired for the 5k anyway.
400m to go is probably too late if its slow - some of her competitors can close in 61s. Howell for example.
In the 1500 of all of these sub 4:10 runners only Tuohy and Barnett have shown the inclination to lead - and so far Tuohy has been happy with slow pace but I think that will change. All of the others have been content to sit in the middle of the pack. If Tuohy and Barnett end up in same semi who leads the other? The place/time/serpentine method seems clear as mud but my guess now is they will be in different heats. The thing Tuohy has done right is position herself at the front ("Centro") so when the kicking started she was in the lead thus everyone else would need to run close to 1 second faster on final lap to beat her. I don't think Tuohy would let the final be slow and just come down to a kick and I would expect her to want to be in the lead going into the final lap.
In the 5000 I don't think she willl try to run away from anyone, and I do think Venters or Kemboi will be at the front. If she is there with 1000 to go I think Tuohy tries to go from more than 400 out.
In the 1500, I think Tuohy will run an Alicia Monson style of race and keep dropping the pace and keep putting the pressure on. Use her strength, get in front fairly early. The 5k strategy will depend entirely on how the 1500 turns out and her recovery.
Hot weather conditions may play a part, but I think with the exception of Tuohy’s Regional meet her freshman year, she has run well in heat. Her HS 4:33 mile was run in 95 degree temperatures. Not sure the impact on the rest of the field. In the 5k though, Valby and Churchill may have an edge being from Florida.
I think for the 1500, Tuohy has been watching how Jakob races - start at the back in the first 200m so as not to get tripped up, then move up to near the front for a lap, then take the lead and wind it down for the last 2 laps. Or if the pace is hot, let someone else lead until the bell.
Yeah but instead of speculating that she could I have provided facts that show otherwise. I already said she's the favorite but you guys make it really hard to root for her. If she was so much better than the rest of the field in all of the instances I have provided she would have won in that manner already. Watch the 2022 World womens 1500m final. You're telling me that she can run and win in a similar fashion for 1500m and 5000m in the same meet?
It is ok if she isn't at the level where she can run away from the field from the beginning of the race TWICE. You guys are fighting to make a uphill argument making me sound like a hater lol. Look at all the guys who set ncaa mile/1500 records. Yared ran 2 records solo after winning a NCAA title and making a olympic team and didn't win another one. The year Cooper ran 3:50 why wasn't his strategy to just gap everyone? You guys aren't respecting the rest of the NCAA which is foolish. Especially at 1500m. The 5k is probably her best bet to win in solo fashion but the issue here is if Valby is healthy no way she solos this race in that fashion.
I did not say that. I think her best strategy for the 1500 is to drive the pace hard. O'Sullivan, Howell, and Bott have the best pure kicks I think (and I think we have seen them). But, in the 5000 I think her best strategy is to not lead until she makes a final move (assuming she is capable - and I am not saying that is a given after the 1500). If someone else thinks she can run away from the field in both races well I just do not agree.
Ok this is actually pretty good analysis of the race. Maybe Tuohy will display greater fitness/sharpness than we have seen all year and she is indeed head and shoulders above the competition. She knows more than us about her fitness lol but for now I would think her best bet is to make her move in the second half of both races.
The entire body language around the NC State program this year shows despair. Half their stars injured, they don’t carry that swag anymore. Recruits don’t want to end up in physical therapy choosing other places., Athletes that are good are going places away from Henes and thinking about extending their careers.
Recruits not wanting to go to NC State? Wut? Who wouldn’t want to be part of a program that has won the last 2 XC championships and runner up the year before that? The top 2 HS distance runners from NY heading there in the fall. NC State has a problem of too many recruits. Their XC “B” team could qualify for Nationals if allowed to run two teams.
NC State may have a strong recruiting class, I don't know, but let's not make things up. The top NY HS distance runner for the past two years has been, by far, Karrie Baloga, and she is going to Colorado.
5 gals in 408 got my attention. Should be a battle Royale at Nats.
Agree. Very exciting. Plus Flockhart who has been winning her heats with ease, and Howell.
It's eight if you count the season best times -
4:08 this season -
Tuohy, Appleton, Thornton-Bott, Barnett, Kascimerska, Plourde, O' Sullivan, Ellmore
Although, i will argue with myself and say, she will still blaze to a win. I'm anti-KT only to the extent of rooting for the underdog, but KT has one thing I have not seen in NCAAs--- that Faith Kipyegon/Sifan-esque grinding kick from way way....out. Valby looked great the other night and couldnt come close to hanging on to that 400m kick. Just seems like she can win two ways and I cant ignore that. I will never bet against her until she is a pro or someone else shows that kind of kick.
Yeah but instead of speculating that she could I have provided facts that show otherwise. I already said she's the favorite but you guys make it really hard to root for her. If she was so much better than the rest of the field in all of the instances I have provided she would have won in that manner already. Watch the 2022 World womens 1500m final. You're telling me that she can run and win in a similar fashion for 1500m and 5000m in the same meet?
It is ok if she isn't at the level where she can run away from the field from the beginning of the race TWICE. You guys are fighting to make a uphill argument making me sound like a hater lol. Look at all the guys who set ncaa mile/1500 records. Yared ran 2 records solo after winning a NCAA title and making a olympic team and didn't win another one. The year Cooper ran 3:50 why wasn't his strategy to just gap everyone? You guys aren't respecting the rest of the NCAA which is foolish. Especially at 1500m. The 5k is probably her best bet to win in solo fashion but the issue here is if Valby is healthy no way she solos this race in that fashion.
I did not say that. I think her best strategy for the 1500 is to drive the pace hard. O'Sullivan, Howell, and Bott have the best pure kicks I think (and I think we have seen them). But, in the 5000 I think her best strategy is to not lead until she makes a final move (assuming she is capable - and I am not saying that is a given after the 1500). If someone else thinks she can run away from the field in both races well I just do not agree.
Ive watched O. Howell all year and no way in heck she has kick like KT. Maybe im thinking more 300m kick than final stretch/go to the arms kick. I'll have to watch the western regional 1500, I have not seen anyone in NCAA with her kick from the cheap seats. Certainly not Howell.
Ive watched O. Howell all year and no way in heck she has kick like KT. Maybe im thinking more 300m kick than final stretch/go to the arms kick. I'll have to watch the western regional 1500, I have not seen anyone in NCAA with her kick from the cheap seats. Certainly not Howell.
Howell tried to control from the front and blasted her final 3-400m. She, Thornton-Bott and Gibson closed in ~61s, Pellicoro and Jepkirui ~62s.
Plourde, Appleton, Flockhart also have shown fast 400m closes.
Final 200m Kascimerska, O Sullivan, Flockhart, Howell
Kaczimerska is actually pretty experienced and has a 4:07 pr from her races in Poland.
1) Where were all of these 1500 meter runners in indoor? The next fastest time in the mile behind tuohy was 4:29 right? I also feel like that 4:23/4 DMR split she had is being undervalued in this conversation.
2) If I had to guess, after the 5k in cali, tuohy and henes decided that it’s a long shot to make that team and she is going to sharpen up for the 5k/15 double at NCAAs to try and make something special happen. Then she can just continue to train for a few weeks until USAs, get more experience and be more competitive this year than last.
In conclusion, I think we haven’t seen the Tuohy showing up to NCAAs yet this spring…..
One thing I’ve noticed about west runners that make them a threat. They’re older. With exception of Elmore and Barnett many are established international runners in mid 20’s. That makes tuohy’s challlenge much harder.
One thing I’ve noticed about west runners that make them a threat. They’re older. With exception of Elmore and Barnett many are established international runners in mid 20’s. That makes tuohy’s challlenge much harder.
Yes, that is true. East has some older runners as well.
Elmore was highschool class of 2020, she is the same age as Tuohy. She is a freshman by covid eligibility I think, but a redshirt sophomore.
Bott has gone toe to toe with Jessica Hull international races. Kaz is a polish star talent, Plourde elite Canadian star probably Olympian. O’Sullivan Aussie u-23 champ.
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