Jakob is a more obvious doper than El Guerrouj - and he's probably been doping from a young age, at that. However, now that he's been and still is a star, he'll never test positive.
Nobody not on drugs runs a 1500m time around 2(800)-4.5s.
I must be doped to the gills as well with 2:28/4:50i PRs.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
The premise of this thread is ridiculous. Jakob ran his 1500 PB in August 2021 and his 5000 PB in May 2021. He ran his mile PB just last year. There was no Monaco 1500 last year and he never ran a 5000 TT because he focussed on winning gold. His level is so high that any progress is going to be incremental and non-linear - this isn't some kid in his first couple of years as a pro.
Grinding down that 1500 time is going to be hard but I think he has 3:27 in him, but that kind of performance will need perfect conditions. The 5000 PB will inevitably come down, under 12:40 at least.
You say the premise is ridiculous but then seem to mostly agree with it…If he was improving substantially at 1500, bettering a time run in the third race in 4 days of a championship would be obvious - not “hard” and requiring “perfect conditions.” I think everyone agrees from 3K and up, Jakob is still growing and will set huge PBs. As a racer in the 1500, he very well may be improving. I do think a 3:27 high 1500 is possible, but that would mostly just match his Tokyo fitness. The 3K and up PBs are going to take a tumble, and that is accumulating strength as well as a lack of focus in running fast races there until this year and beyond.
This post was edited 23 seconds after it was posted.
The premise of this thread is ridiculous. Jakob ran his 1500 PB in August 2021 and his 5000 PB in May 2021. He ran his mile PB just last year. There was no Monaco 1500 last year and he never ran a 5000 TT because he focussed on winning gold. His level is so high that any progress is going to be incremental and non-linear - this isn't some kid in his first couple of years as a pro.
Grinding down that 1500 time is going to be hard but I think he has 3:27 in him, but that kind of performance will need perfect conditions. The 5000 PB will inevitably come down, under 12:40 at least.
You say the premise is ridiculous but then seem to mostly agree with it…If he was improving substantially at 1500, bettering a time run in the third race in 4 days of a championship would be obvious - not “hard” and requiring “perfect conditions.” I think everyone agrees from 3K and up, Jakob is still growing and will set huge PBs. As a racer in the 1500, he very well may be improving. I do think a 3:27 high 1500 is possible, but that would mostly just match his Tokyo fitness. The 3K and up PBs are going to take a tumble, and that is accumulating strength as well as a lack of focus in running fast races there until this year and beyond.
He's at a level where "substantial" improvements are unlikely to happen in the 1500. 3:27, even 3:26 seem possible for him but it will be in increments, not knocking 2 seconds off in one go. To me, even if he "only" runs 3:27, that's not plateauing and at 22, I doubt he's anywhere near his peak fitness. I'm confident that there's more to come from Jakob in the 1500 both in terms of medals and times.
As a long time letsrun forum user, I find it mildly amusing how much doubt Jakob has faced on these boards for years now, and those goalposts just keep on moving further and further....
A few years back it was mainly 'sure, he's good for a European but he'll never compete seriously at world level'. Then it was 'ok he can compete at world level but he'll never win an Olympic gold'. Then it was 'ok he's won an Olympic gold but he's never going to get the world record'.
Do I think he can go faster? After everything he has achieved and the number of times he has proven the doubters wrong on here, I think it would be foolish to bet against it. He is also only 22 years old.
You say the premise is ridiculous but then seem to mostly agree with it…If he was improving substantially at 1500, bettering a time run in the third race in 4 days of a championship would be obvious - not “hard” and requiring “perfect conditions.” I think everyone agrees from 3K and up, Jakob is still growing and will set huge PBs. As a racer in the 1500, he very well may be improving. I do think a 3:27 high 1500 is possible, but that would mostly just match his Tokyo fitness. The 3K and up PBs are going to take a tumble, and that is accumulating strength as well as a lack of focus in running fast races there until this year and beyond.
He's at a level where "substantial" improvements are unlikely to happen in the 1500. 3:27, even 3:26 seem possible for him but it will be in increments, not knocking 2 seconds off in one go. To me, even if he "only" runs 3:27, that's not plateauing and at 22, I doubt he's anywhere near his peak fitness. I'm confident that there's more to come from Jakob in the 1500 both in terms of medals and times.
100% agree. The notion Jakob is essentially finished at 1500 because he didn’t improve his PB last year is absurd. Indoors he was running over a second faster in 2022 vs 2021. Outdoors, he had a very limited racing schedule (by his standards) due to a heavy championship focus. He only competed in two 1500s, both very late in the season, and still managed to run much faster in both than he did end of season in 2021.
He's at a level where "substantial" improvements are unlikely to happen in the 1500. 3:27, even 3:26 seem possible for him but it will be in increments, not knocking 2 seconds off in one go. To me, even if he "only" runs 3:27, that's not plateauing and at 22, I doubt he's anywhere near his peak fitness. I'm confident that there's more to come from Jakob in the 1500 both in terms of medals and times.
See, I don’t agree with that at all. It’s about the right race - his physical shape is there in the 2021-23 span. He could lop off almost a second in one go, that is how many athletes improve in the 1500. El Guerrouj is a rarity in having tons of performances at the 3:26-27 level. Many more athletes (Ngeny, Lagat, Willis, S. Kiplagat, Kiprop, Morceli, Iguider, Kerr) have at most two outlier performances and then their more typical level. For Jakob, he’s often in the 3:28-mid-3:30 range and in Tokyo he was in 3:27 mid/high shape in a one-off. That season was a breakthrough as was that race. I’m skeptical he has another level to go and I do expect a PB but I think that the room to grow will be in the longer races/tactical acumen.
Haven't read through the whole thread, but the title is pretty much accurate. Jakob is the best 1500/5000 runner in the world, but his performances have indeed plateaued in the last few years. He's still the favorite for Paris, and back to back Olympic golds would be an incredible career. There's just no reason to think he has another breakthrough at this point, and that upsets the white supremacists on this board who convinced themselves he'd get the world record. He can certainly get under 12:45 with good pacing, and maybe he's capable of 3:27 high if he gets a perfect race in Monaco, but we're absolutely seeing his peak now.
"white supremacists"? WTF?
Anyway, please explain "plateaued" and include some factual and or knowledgeable info as to why you think this. Also, as with many people who post opinions on this board, be sure to know what your talking about as it does help legitimize your opinion. People who know the sport can easily filter out those who do not.
That being said, Jakob's ceiling in the 5000m and 10,000m is really high. I believe he's put in a tremendous amount of foundational work over the past few years with the priority being speed endurance (1500-Mile) development, but has not emphasized nor neglected strength development (3000m, 5000m, and Cross Country). Once Jakob transitions and commits to the 3000m, 5000m, and 10,000m we will see another breakthrough. I would dare to bet he definitely has the potential to set world records at the longer distances. He could scare the 1500/Mile world records as well, but he needs to do so very soon. In the end, the 5000m and 10,000m will be his best races.
If America sweep the 1500 in Paris I will sell my house and give you the proceeds. Deluded is a real disease
What’s delusional about my post? The entire 2022 season came and went with no improvement from Jakob in the 1500. That’s not delusion, it’s reality! Meanwhile our guys are coming on strong!
Thank you for your gift! How much do you think you can get for your house? I want to start making plans for how to use the money.
How many people PR every year when already running 3:28? No one does. I would say the USA guys are still getting the low hanging fruit with regards to improvement. No American has ever run under 3:30 for 1500, meanwhile J. Ingebrigsten has run:
- Less 3:30 that 6 times since 2020
- run under Yared Nuguse's PR 22 times in his life
- under Hobbs Kessler's PR 20 times
- under Cooper Teare's PR 20 times
- under Cole Hocker's PR 11 times
I'm a big fan of Team USA distance, but Jakob has nothing to fear from the USA right now.
As a long time letsrun forum user, I find it mildly amusing how much doubt Jakob has faced on these boards for years now, and those goalposts just keep on moving further and further....
A few years back it was mainly 'sure, he's good for a European but he'll never compete seriously at world level'. Then it was 'ok he can compete at world level but he'll never win an Olympic gold'. Then it was 'ok he's won an Olympic gold but he's never going to get the world record'.
Do I think he can go faster? After everything he has achieved and the number of times he has proven the doubters wrong on here, I think it would be foolish to bet against it. He is also only 22 years old.
No kidding. I'm not doubting prodigies like Jakob or Mu
So this thread was referenced in your podcast and I listened to some of it. I actually enjoyed listening to your banter BUT all 3 of you have the wrong take. First of all, Jon, I was not basing this thread on the Rabat race. You would have to be the village idiot to make a thread based on one race like this. Second, I believe Rojo said that Jakob ran 12:48 last year and nobody corrected him. Jakob ran 12:48 two years ago. Rojo also said that Jakob is basically unbeatable at 5000m and of course none of you disagreed. Of course Jakob can be beaten at 5000m and there are several who could do it. Rojo also was approving of a post which said that Jakob would probably be the best in the world at 5 and 10 from 2024 until 2034. It really is amazing that any of you could concur with such obvious nonsense. Wejo also dismissed the notion that Jakob could be done improving. So all 3 of you had the wrong take on this. I enjoyed it anyway. Keep up the “good” work.
So this thread was referenced in your podcast and I listened to some of it. I actually enjoyed listening to your banter BUT all 3 of you have the wrong take. First of all, Jon, I was not basing this thread on the Rabat race. You would have to be the village idiot to make a thread based on one race like this. Second, I believe Rojo said that Jakob ran 12:48 last year and nobody corrected him. Jakob ran 12:48 two years ago. Rojo also said that Jakob is basically unbeatable at 5000m and of course none of you disagreed. Of course Jakob can be beaten at 5000m and there are several who could do it. Rojo also was approving of a post which said that Jakob would probably be the best in the world at 5 and 10 from 2024 until 2034. It really is amazing that any of you could concur with such obvious nonsense. Wejo also dismissed the notion that Jakob could be done improving. So all 3 of you had the wrong take on this. I enjoyed it anyway. Keep up the “good” work.
When did Jakob last lose a 5000? Granted, he doesn't race many, but he wins them all and usually against good fields.
I do agree that any assertion about his ability over 10k is pure speculation. You'd guess from his training XC performances that he'd do well but we have nothing to on when it comes to competitive track 10k races
Haven't read through the whole thread, but the title is pretty much accurate. Jakob is the best 1500/5000 runner in the world, but his performances have indeed plateaued in the last few years. He's still the favorite for Paris, and back to back Olympic golds would be an incredible career. There's just no reason to think he has another breakthrough at this point, and that upsets the white supremacists on this board who convinced themselves he'd get the world record. He can certainly get under 12:45 with good pacing, and maybe he's capable of 3:27 high if he gets a perfect race in Monaco, but we're absolutely seeing his peak now.
"white supremacists"? WTF?
Anyway, please explain "plateaued" and include some factual and or knowledgeable info as to why you think this. Also, as with many people who post opinions on this board, be sure to know what your talking about as it does help legitimize your opinion. People who know the sport can easily filter out those who do not.
That being said, Jakob's ceiling in the 5000m and 10,000m is really high. I believe he's put in a tremendous amount of foundational work over the past few years with the priority being speed endurance (1500-Mile) development, but has not emphasized nor neglected strength development (3000m, 5000m, and Cross Country). Once Jakob transitions and commits to the 3000m, 5000m, and 10,000m we will see another breakthrough. I would dare to bet he definitely has the potential to set world records at the longer distances. He could scare the 1500/Mile world records as well, but he needs to do so very soon. In the end, the 5000m and 10,000m will be his best races.
Cheers!
It's pretty obvious that lots of people on this board resent East African distance running success and have convinced themselves that it's all due to doping. In the absence of a white American mega talent, these people have pinned their hopes on Jakob as the savior.
Why do I think he's plateaued? Well he didn't PR at any distance last year and he was outkicked by Wightman in the biggest race of the season. Yes he won the 5000 in impressive fashion, but his biggest rival in Cheptegei was running injured. None of his results suggest that he's improved since 2021, and the leveling off is inevitable at some point, as he's been training like a pro since he was a child. The downvotes don't bother me, and I'll admit that I don't like the guy on a personal level, but I thought I was pretty fair in my first post.
I agree that Jakob can be a great 10k runner in a championship setting down the line, but there's close to zero chance he ever runs sub 12:35/26:11 and I'd be willing to put quite a bit of money on that. Cheptegei may not be able to outkick Jakob, but he's simply on a different level as a time trialer.
Anyway, please explain "plateaued" and include some factual and or knowledgeable info as to why you think this. Also, as with many people who post opinions on this board, be sure to know what your talking about as it does help legitimize your opinion. People who know the sport can easily filter out those who do not.
That being said, Jakob's ceiling in the 5000m and 10,000m is really high. I believe he's put in a tremendous amount of foundational work over the past few years with the priority being speed endurance (1500-Mile) development, but has not emphasized nor neglected strength development (3000m, 5000m, and Cross Country). Once Jakob transitions and commits to the 3000m, 5000m, and 10,000m we will see another breakthrough. I would dare to bet he definitely has the potential to set world records at the longer distances. He could scare the 1500/Mile world records as well, but he needs to do so very soon. In the end, the 5000m and 10,000m will be his best races.
Cheers!
It's pretty obvious that lots of people on this board resent East African distance running success and have convinced themselves that it's all due to doping. In the absence of a white American mega talent, these people have pinned their hopes on Jakob as the savior.
Why do I think he's plateaued? Well he didn't PR at any distance last year and he was outkicked by Wightman in the biggest race of the season. Yes he won the 5000 in impressive fashion, but his biggest rival in Cheptegei was running injured. None of his results suggest that he's improved since 2021, and the leveling off is inevitable at some point, as he's been training like a pro since he was a child. The downvotes don't bother me, and I'll admit that I don't like the guy on a personal level, but I thought I was pretty fair in my first post.
I agree that Jakob can be a great 10k runner in a championship setting down the line, but there's close to zero chance he ever runs sub 12:35/26:11 and I'd be willing to put quite a bit of money on that. Cheptegei may not be able to outkick Jakob, but he's simply on a different level as a time trialer.
What’s delusional about my post? The entire 2022 season came and went with no improvement from Jakob in the 1500. That’s not delusion, it’s reality! Meanwhile our guys are coming on strong!
Thank you for your gift! How much do you think you can get for your house? I want to start making plans for how to use the money.
How many people PR every year when already running 3:28? No one does. I would say the USA guys are still getting the low hanging fruit with regards to improvement. No American has ever run under 3:30 for 1500, meanwhile J. Ingebrigsten has run:
- Less 3:30 that 6 times since 2020
- run under Yared Nuguse's PR 22 times in his life
- under Hobbs Kessler's PR 20 times
- under Cooper Teare's PR 20 times
- under Cole Hocker's PR 11 times
I'm a big fan of Team USA distance, but Jakob has nothing to fear from the USA right now.
Jakob was running 3:31 before Hobbs started running. Now, Hobbs is running 3:32. Idk if nothing to fear is accurate. Hobbs has displayed as much if not more ability in a short time span.
Why do I think he's plateaued? Well he didn't PR at any distance last year and he was outkicked by Wightman in the biggest race of the season. Yes he won the 5000 in impressive fashion, but his biggest rival in Cheptegei was running injured. None of his results suggest that he's improved since 2021,
I think people need to redefine the word 'plateaued' when you're talking about the elite of the elite. Performing consistently at the very limits of human performance isn't like your average letsrunner who has 'plateaued' at 42 minutes in the 10k since 2019. A miniscule change in race tactic or conditions can mean the difference between a 3:27 and a 3:28; it's not like that is entirely down to the athlete's condition or 'pb potential' on the day. The example you gave is perfect, Jakob fought off 2 or 3 ill-judged lead attempts by Tim in the WC final and as such it took enough out of him to give a kicking Wightman the edge. Had Tim not pushed for the lead so many times (or had Jakob allowed it) the race could have played out very differently. Ultimately, Wightman ran the best race on the day but let's not pretend that it was because he was in better 'pb' shape than Jakob or because Jakob had 'plateaued'.