17 year old Roisin Willis ran 1:59. What makes you think that Bol wouldn't absolutely demolish her?
Willis is an 800 runner. Bol is a 400 runner. That makes a big difference. You can't just move up or down in events and automatically be great at that event too.
That's like saying Keely Hodgkinson is great at the 800 so she should move down to the 400 and she would be great. No, she wouldn't. The 400 and the 800 are very different events. Outside of Athing Mu it's very rare for someone to be great at both.
Shamier Little ran 49 seconds in the 400 and then tried an 800 and she only ran something like 2:03 or 2:04.
The 400 and the 800 are very different events.
I was about to write something like this. Yes, she did well at 500m. That is vastly different from the 800m. The gaps between events aren't equal in terms of how similar they are. In fact, I'd say the gap between 400m and 800m is more than the gap between say 100/200, 5000/10,000 etc in terms of transferability. It is probably the biggest gulf out of all track events. In terms of flat track events, I'd say its the rarest double to do well and there's a reason for that. One is a sprint and one is MD. With every other double of events next to each other in distance, they fall into the same category, sprint/sprint or distance/distance. The systems the events use are too different. Very tricky to move from 400 to 800 IMO.
Those of the certain age will remember that when Juantorina came along, it was generally accepted that big strong athletes were the future of the 800m. Now, guess who smashed Juantorina's record? 5ft 9in 130pds Seb Coe.
Rudisha was 6 foot 3 and 12 stones flat.
Why do Americans not use stones!
Either go metric or the imperial system correctly.
If one looks into the history, the easiest/most successful doubles by far have been 100/200m and 5000/10000m, for obvious reaons.
Even successful 800/1500m at the highest level is rare and has become rarer with the 800m becoming almost a specialty among the middle distances. Because it is so special in its mix of the energy systems used and abilities required. That's also why it's hardest to make a final as a favorite in the 800m at the highest level. One bad move/bad day in the semis and you might be out. This almost never happens in the sprints (unless false start) or 1500m.
Against all of the whinging over why the 800 is such a difficult event to guarantee a win at the world level, is the "elephant in the room", which is this: 50.68. Femke hasn't even breeched 52 seconds yet! That is 1.35 seconds that Bol is looking at just to catch up to the Rudisha/Bolt-level superiority of Sydney McLaughin-Levrone. Bol is talented as hell, but that is a yawning chasm between her and The GOAT. As long as Sydney wants it, for the forseeable future , no one else is within shouting distance of that particular gold medal.
As excellent as Mu and Hodgkinson are, they still 1.7+ seconds off of the world record, set so long ago. Yet THAT is the level of Sydney's WR right now. Compared to the 400H, the w800m is still a land of opportunity for an up-and-coming athlete like Bol. In two years she could definitely be contender. I'm not sure that she is a contender against 50.68...ever.
Put another way, Lyles is only 18 IAAF points off of Bolt's 200m record, compared to 55 points between Femke and Sydney. And there are many who think that Lyles is at best a 50/50 to ever get that record.
The question is, is staying in the 400H just tilting at an insurmountable windmill? In the scheme of her overall career, is being the forever silver medal an acceptable outcome?
A similar argument can be made for her to move with focus to the open 400, where things are comparatively "normal" in terms of who is at the top and for how long. A transition to that as a focus would be comparatively easy...unless Syd decides to do the same?
The plot is very thick here, so many questions, and career decisions that must be made sooner, not later....
Sydney McLaughlin shaved nearly a second off of her 400m hurdles world record time from June, crossing the line in 50.68 seconds for her first World Title#NB...
Seriously, because McLaughlin is so good, Bol should swap a certain silver (gold if Sydney is injured or stumbles badly) in the 400h + chances in the 400m flat and relays for a very uncertain chance to maybe get into medal range in a tactically difficult event she has no experience in, namely the 800m? How irrational would that be?
Bol being good at 800m should not be based just on her PBs, which is only one part of the story, but her training times & tests.
It's known that she has great endurance and VO2 capability. Ellen Van Langen keeps wanting her to move up not because she just think she can do it, but because she has been privy to Femke's training results & tests.
However, as has been said, Bol has absolutely no desire to move up anytime soon, and as some have suggested, she is needed for the 4x4's anyway.
I would point out that Bol's split at 300m during her 500m WB would have placed just a couple of strides behind Gabby Thomas's 300m win in Boston, and ahead of Prandini. I'd also point out that from her training videos, Bol's speed has definitely improved - she'll be under 23 seconds this summer for sure. So she appears to have the right balance of speed and endurance for the 400m right now. Yes, she has the ability to do well at 800m....if she trained specifically for it. She's not dropping a 1:57 off the back of her current training plan.
Note other 400/800 examples: burly Czech Helena Fuchsova moved from 400 to 800, running 50.71 & 1:58.56 in 2000, and 50.84 & 1:58.81 in 1999. Her 400m PB was 50.21 from 1998 & 200m PB 23.29 from 1997. I'm quite sure Bol would be faster than her.
It was a big gap, but let's be fair to Bol, her stride pattern last season was restrictive due to her improved flat speed, and she cannot yet hurdle efficiently with both legs like Sydney can. So yes, whilst there was a big gap in Eugene, things can be improved and changed to close that gap and make it smaller.
In addition, without the barriers, they are much more evenly matched. McLaughlin ran a 47.9 relay leg in Eugene, lane 1 all the way, for one of the fastest splits ever. Bol ran a 48.5 relay leg in Munich....starting off in lane 3, and running half the second bend in lane 2 to overtake the women in front of her. Also one of the fastest splits ever, and also much close to Syd's time without those obstacles.
IF Bol decides to shift to the 400 for say, Paris 2024, she is likely to be closer to Syd...IF Syd also decides to follow suit and move over to the 400. I think that is a big "if" considering the hurdles gold is hers for the picking, but top athletes have their preferences and pecadillos, so maybe Syd for some reason makes the move.
Paulino and SMU have both run 48 already, but last year Bol was within 0.5 seconds of both. Syd would be right in that mix if she moves, leaving the 400H open (doubtful). And Mu...???
I seriously doubt that anyone is going to do a 400/400H double.
I will not be surprised to see Bol in the 400 in Budapest, with Paris '24 a big ?????
This women's 400/400H/800 situation is the most fascinating conundrum in track right now.
Why does everybody want people to move up in distance when they are already at their perfect distance? Bol could move to 800 and get her @ss kicked by Mu, Keely, Reekie, and others, or she could stay at 400H and challenge McLaughlin for gold. If Sydney decides to focus on the 400 (again, I don't know why she would switch from her perfect event), Bol could win Olympic gold. I think Bol is the only person who has any chance of ever matching McLaughlin's record.
Why does everybody want people to move up in distance when they are already at their perfect distance? Bol could move to 800 and get her @ss kicked by Mu, Keely, Reekie, and others, or she could stay at 400H and challenge McLaughlin for gold. If Sydney decides to focus on the 400 (again, I don't know why she would switch from her perfect event), Bol could win Olympic gold. I think Bol is the only person who has any chance of ever matching McLaughlin's record.
This is LetsRun. The formula is "[usually white] runner should move up to a longer-distance event!" Every month someone says something like this and thinks they have the neuronal density of a black hole as a result. "Jeremy Wariner should move up to the 800!" "Matthew Boling should quit the 100 and focus exclusively on the 400!" "Christian McCaffery should beef up and play Mike backer!"
In fairness, I saw some "Fahnbulleh should run the 400 meters" delusions last year too.
IF Bol decides to shift to the 400 for say, Paris 2024, she is likely to be closer to Syd...IF Syd also decides to follow suit and move over to the 400. I think that is a big "if" considering the hurdles gold is hers for the picking, but top athletes have their preferences and pecadillos, so maybe Syd for some reason makes the move.
Paulino and SMU have both run 48 already, but last year Bol was within 0.5 seconds of both. Syd would be right in that mix if she moves, leaving the 400H open (doubtful). And Mu...???
I seriously doubt that anyone is going to do a 400/400H double.
I will not be surprised to see Bol in the 400 in Budapest, with Paris '24 a big ?????
This women's 400/400H/800 situation is the most fascinating conundrum in track right now.
I would be surprised to see Bol in the 400m flat in Budapest unless it was a last minute decision. The aim for now is definitely the 400mh, otherwise she wouldn't be attempting to drop to 14's in training. If for some reason she cannot get the hang of it, or it becomes too risky & inconsistent, I would guess she would be more likely to switch back to 15s rather than run the flat.
If 2028 wasn't in LA I would have put money on McLaughlin leaving the sport before then. But a home Olympics will motivate her to continue and Kersee will have a 5 year plan. There is no way she would do a 400m/400mh at age 29 come LA, so if she wants to do that, it will be a Champs before then. But Kersee is smart and he will assess the competition; it may be the 400m flat is too competitive to risk doubling one season, but not another. With no SMU this summer though, and with Bol new to 14's, this might be the best year to attempt it. Naser could be the fly in the ointment, either this year or next.
How the hell do you know if you're running your perfect distance? Was Seb Coe at his perfect distance when he was specialising at the 800m and breaking UK records and winning a bronze at the European Championships in 1978? So many athletes had to change events to find their best distance. And, for Femke mov8ng to 800m would let her experience real racing involving tactics, an unfolding storyline and a number of unknown factors. It's a no brainer.
Why does everybody want people to move up in distance when they are already at their perfect distance? Bol could move to 800 and get her @ss kicked by Mu, Keely, Reekie, and others, or she could stay at 400H and challenge McLaughlin for gold. If Sydney decides to focus on the 400 (again, I don't know why she would switch from her perfect event), Bol could win Olympic gold. I think Bol is the only person who has any chance of ever matching McLaughlin's record.
The only event where she has a shot at gold in Budapest is in the 400. Beyond that, time will tell, but Syd's record is a mile away, so to speak.
Here is a Bol victory I hadn't seen yet. No splits available but it looks like sub-49:
The Women's 4x400m relay is always one of the most anticipated events at any Championship, and the 2022 Munich edition was no different.The Netherlands won g...
Why does everybody want people to move up in distance when they are already at their perfect distance? Bol could move to 800 and get her @ss kicked by Mu, Keely, Reekie, and others, or she could stay at 400H and challenge McLaughlin for gold. If Sydney decides to focus on the 400 (again, I don't know why she would switch from her perfect event), Bol could win Olympic gold. I think Bol is the only person who has any chance of ever matching McLaughlin's record.
This is LetsRun. The formula is "[usually white] runner should move up to a longer-distance event!" Every month someone says something like this and thinks they have the neuronal density of a black hole as a result. "Jeremy Wariner should move up to the 800!" "Matthew Boling should quit the 100 and focus exclusively on the 400!" "Christian McCaffery should beef up and play Mike backer!"
In fairness, I saw some "Fahnbulleh should run the 400 meters" delusions last year too.
This is Bol's fault for crushing the 500m WR. That has nothing to do with skin color. No one with two objective eyes would not see that door opening. Britton Wilson also opened a door towards the 800 as well last week with her 600m CR (but she has many years of development in the 400H yet).
IF Bol decides to shift to the 400 for say, Paris 2024, she is likely to be closer to Syd...IF Syd also decides to follow suit and move over to the 400. I think that is a big "if" considering the hurdles gold is hers for the picking, but top athletes have their preferences and pecadillos, so maybe Syd for some reason makes the move.
Paulino and SMU have both run 48 already, but last year Bol was within 0.5 seconds of both. Syd would be right in that mix if she moves, leaving the 400H open (doubtful). And Mu...???
I seriously doubt that anyone is going to do a 400/400H double.
I will not be surprised to see Bol in the 400 in Budapest, with Paris '24 a big ?????
This women's 400/400H/800 situation is the most fascinating conundrum in track right now.
I would be surprised to see Bol in the 400m flat in Budapest unless it was a last minute decision. The aim for now is definitely the 400mh, otherwise she wouldn't be attempting to drop to 14's in training. If for some reason she cannot get the hang of it, or it becomes too risky & inconsistent, I would guess she would be more likely to switch back to 15s rather than run the flat.
If 2028 wasn't in LA I would have put money on McLaughlin leaving the sport before then. But a home Olympics will motivate her to continue and Kersee will have a 5 year plan. There is no way she would do a 400m/400mh at age 29 come LA, so if she wants to do that, it will be a Champs before then. But Kersee is smart and he will assess the competition; it may be the 400m flat is too competitive to risk doubling one season, but not another. With no SMU this summer though, and with Bol new to 14's, this might be the best year to attempt it. Naser could be the fly in the ointment, either this year or next.
Aarghh...you are right, Naser will be back, doped to the gills, no doubt.
How the hell do you know if you're running your perfect distance? Was Seb Coe at his perfect distance when he was specialising at the 800m and breaking UK records and winning a bronze at the European Championships in 1978? So many athletes had to change events to find their best distance. And, for Femke mov8ng to 800m would let her experience real racing involving tactics, an unfolding storyline and a number of unknown factors. It's a no brainer.
What about “I don’t want to run the 800” do some of you not understand?
This is LetsRun. The formula is "[usually white] runner should move up to a longer-distance event!" Every month someone says something like this and thinks they have the neuronal density of a black hole as a result. "Jeremy Wariner should move up to the 800!" "Matthew Boling should quit the 100 and focus exclusively on the 400!" "Christian McCaffery should beef up and play Mike backer!"
In fairness, I saw some "Fahnbulleh should run the 400 meters" delusions last year too.
This is Bol's fault for crushing the 500m WR. That has nothing to do with skin color. No one with two objective eyes would not see that door opening. Britton Wilson also opened a door towards the 800 as well last week with her 600m CR (but she has many years of development in the 400H yet).
Keep your racist ideology out of this.
I care not a whit for race in this matter. I'm simply observing a LR tendency. It's not an absolute one - as I said, it sometimes works the other way racially, as in the few whackos who think J.Fahn should abandon the short sprints for the 400.
Bol crushed the 500 meter world record. That's 100 meters longer than the 400 and 300 meters shorter than the 800; what makes it so obvious that the "door opening" is the longer open event, rather than the closer-in-distance open event she just won at Euros in August?
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Fixed spelling.