Is Woody Kincaid Clean?

There are three viewpoints you can take, as I see it. Only one makes any logical sense:

1) Assume all (or nearly all) the top elites dope in some form.

2) Assume all (or nearly all) elite athletes do not dope.

3) Assume a significant number dope, but a significant number also do not dope.

Choice #1 is most in line with the large amount of positive tests from top performers.
As a fan, it makes me feel better to believe #1. That way, I'm rarely disappointed or surprised when someone tests positive. Also, it assumes a level playing field, or at least as level as it can be. It's also the only one of the three choices that makes any logical sense at all.

Believing #2, is devastatingly naïve. It ignores the continual positives among elites. It ignores the basic concept that most people cheating or breaking laws don't get caught and those that caught are only a small segment of the total cheaters. It also guarantees you'll be constantly disappointed, perhaps even heartbroken, as a fan. This choice ignores reality.

#3 is tempting to believe. It seems most plausible at first. Until you realize that, as a fan, performance enhancers are necessarily going to be found the most in those with the top performances, who are also the most likely to be fan favorites. It makes no sense to assume the worst performers are taking the most performance enhancers and the best performers are taking the least (reread that line). Even if the top performers could win every race without enhancers, they'd still want even better performance to push national and world records lower, and be just as likely if not more likely, to take performance enhancers. To assume anything else, is illogical.

You tell me if something on this list isn't strange. Top 3 are some of the greatest distance runners of all time. #4 is 30 years old and has never made a world final. Doesn't add up.

worldathletics.org

5000 Metres - men - senior - indoor

Open link

Is it surprising (or suspicious) that Klecker collapsed at the end of that effort, and took a long time to recover, while Woody was able to pick it up, put in a 26 second last lap (at the end of a 5k), and didn't seemed gassed at all at the end? Woody was strutting around like nothing happened after that race while Klecker had people helping him get up. Guess Klecker didn't do enough "double threshold training", which I think is the new catch phrase for "authentic Mexican burrito".

I have to push back against the people saying Woody didn’t come out of nowhere because he was a state champion in high school, didn’t train hard in college, etc. Nothing in his resume points to him being capable of running 12:51 with a 26 second last lap.

The guy is 30 years old with a single national title and nothing else to his name beyond 12:58 (a huge breakthrough from 3.5 years ago) and 27:12. He couldn’t even make it out of the 5k heats at Worlds but just destroyed a record set by last year’s 4th and 6th place finisher who’s run 7:28, 12:46, and 26:33? Hard to believe.

I watched the race and literally could not believe what I was seeing. This was one of the most stunning races I’ve ever seen (not just on US soil). Woodys’ finish was no doubt world class and would challenge for a medal on the world stage. I will assume this was a clean race by all who performed until I hear otherwise.
That being said, I agree that indoor tracks are probably the fastest in the world now. The suspended design and banked surfaces are likely faster than any outdoor track now.
I also have a 5k pr run at the Terrier classic many years ago. I thought then that the track was as fast as any outdoor track, and yet it’s supposed to be even faster now. Couple that with the super shoes and you have the advancement of the sport through technology and design. Woody is likely clean

Thank you for saying this. Came back on to say the same thing. I get he wasn't a mid pack JV runner in high school, but he does not have the talent or the resume to indicate he is capable of running a time like this.

Woody has dropped 25-26 second last 200 meter splits on the reg, including during a race that took place on a 115 degree day. I can't wrap my head around the "it isn't in his resume" argument. The guy has beat Mo and Grant head to head multiple times. You're making Woody sound like he is some guy off the street when that clearly isn't close to the case.

There's a long road to drive between "some guy off the street" and 12:51 suddenly. He probably has what it takes to run professionally and compete clean. he doesn't have what it takes to run this monster time clean. Especially when he's currently between coaches and getting older.

Kincaid's 5k pr was 6 seconds faster than Klecker's entering the race and he has years of hard workouts with sub-13 guys in him. I personally don't find it all that surprising or suspicious that he could beat Klecker by three seconds with a big kick and look less tired after.

A long road like 7 years of training with multiple world and olympic medalists? The guy was 29 like two months ago if that helps you deal with the age thing

Also, Klecker and Hoare did all the work

I have no idea if Kincaid is dirty. All I know is that in a sport rife with doping violations, he is a member of a training group that is irrevocably tainted and his rate progress relatively late in his career is a statistical outlier. I'm sure it's hard to leave a group when you've got many long-time friends and access to state of the art training facilities, but the fact is that everyone associated with BTC/Nike are (rightfully) going to face greater scrutiny/skepticism from the running community going forward. The athletes who chose to stick it out are going to have to live with that. It seems like BTC's hope is that people will eventually forget and move on, but there's just no putting the beans back in that burrito.

Unfortunately, it sounds like Kincaid was on the verge of breaking away from BTC and then got pulled back in by Schumacher claiming that it'd be best for his career. That's a huge shame. Sure, he ran an incredible time, but at what cost? I think many people might have viewed this performance differently if Kincaid were training solo or had moved on to a different group. As it is, it's hard to take seriously.

I think it’s unfair to compare Kincaid and Fisher because their progressions as runners were so different. Fisher wasn’t overtrained by any means but he was very focused on running from a young age (3:50 1500m as a high school sophomore, winning footlocker as a junior), whereas Woody never really got serious with training until he was well into his college career.

Woody has likely been somewhat aerobically underdeveloped compared to guys like Fisher/Ahmed throughout a lot of his career and is just now catching up aerobically after years of accumulated mileage and threshold work.

The truth is there are many incredibly talented runners who don’t get a chance to show it because of a very light training load. There are plenty of NCAA athletes who run 14:20 5ks at small schools off of like 50-60 miles a week and likely have the talent to be professional but don’t even realize it. Ultimately every runner has a different journey and trying to compare progressions is a fools errand.

You guys have such little talent, that you can never conceive of how much better an elite athlete is than you.

You're mistake is to come on boards that report on real sports. You should check the notice boards when you're jogging the bike paths down the beach.

It's be better mentally for you.

I laughed out loud at this. To be this gullible after shelburrito is laughable

3:37, 7:38, 12:58, 27:12

1x national champion

Tokyo 5k: 14th (19s behind 1st)
Tokyo 10k: 15th (28s behind 1st)
Eugene 5k: 11th H2 (12s behind 1st)
Eugene 10k: DNF

Where are you seeing 12:51i with a 26 last 200 in that resume? The

Today Kofuzi disclosed Hoka covered his travel costs to Miami!

"jeff tallon" isn't a real person. Just saying.

Who ever is?