I doubt that Jakob has sufficient raw speed to go faster than 3.28. He is relatively slow over the 800. He could never go 1.44 - which is what it would probably take. Furthermore, it would take more than today's micro-dosing to go faster than 3.28; for anyone to get near El G's 3.26 it would have to be in circumstances where there was no test for EPO and runners could dope without restriction - as it was when the records were achieved from the late 80's till 2003.
Jakob was definitely in shape to go at least a little under 3:28 in 2021. What's more is that you do not need 1:44 to be this fast. Lagat gave several legit attempts at the 800 and could not break 1:46. THough maybe you can say this is EPO.
I enjoy it when arrogance exceeds intelligence. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and your personal performance. Doesn't make your opinion more accurate than mine. Jacob has to declare his record attempt. If he decides to attempt it. But you're opinion is as credible as mine and it's not more accurate because you broke a 5 minute mile (if ever). It's an opinion and yours is no more accurate than mine or anyone else on this message board. Jacob controls that attempt. Your arrogance shows. But if you would like for us to witness your world record attempt in a race to gain credibility. Please announce it here for us to follow. Welcome to the world of hobby jogging.
No, not everyones opinion has the same credibility. Some people know more, some people know less. If a hobby jogger easily improves his Turkey trot PB by 10s doesn't mean Jakob can drop 2,5-3s in 1500m.
I doubt there are more than 10 people on this forum that have a better PB in 1500m than me, so I kinda do know some things about training, progression and peaking. Also, my PB in 800m is even slightly better than Jakobs. That's a fact, JI lacks speed and is also running out of time to get some serious attempts.
It's funny how many here think, that if you begin hard systemized training as a 5 year old, you still gonna be running until 30.
Coe would clearly loved to have one Olympic 800 gold, let alone Snell's two - as well as Snell doubling the 800 and 1500 at the same Olympics. Twenty years apart between these two athletes, it isn't about times.
Coe had a bad race in Los Angeles, tactically, and he's admitted it. Let it go loser.
In the 1984 800m, Cruz was better than Coe and he won going away.
No shame in that but Jakob is turning 22 in a week and I see him limited in his turnover which means he will likely not run faster at 1500m than he has. Then he will probably continue to be a sub 13 and sub 27 man who occasionally wins a global championship for a few more years. This is his ceiling, so best possible personal bests would be 12:40 and 26:25. A pretty good career one might say.
Hmmm...???
"No shame in that but Jakob is turning 22 in a week and I see him limited in his turnover which means he will likely not run faster at 1500m than he has".
I'm not seeing much logic with the above statement, and or any credible evidence supporting it. If you're going to throw out a half baked statement like this I would expect some real data and or knowledge.
My take: Jakob is only 22 years old, and given the fact that he has the necessary strength given his 5000m best of 12:47, and the necessary speed endurance of a 3:28 pb in the 1500, it's just a matter of increasing his speed work volume while trimming down the 5000m strength work volume. Jakob's 800m is the softest of his pb's, and I can see him easily getting down to the 1:44 range at some point. Once he hits that he'll run in the high 3:25's-3:26 range for 1500m and 3:42-3:43 range for the mile. Again, he's only 22 years old and is unafraid to run as fast as he can. His training is well thought out and I'm sure he has a plan in place over the next 4-6 years.
Jakob's 800m is the softest of his pb's, and I can see him easily getting down to the 1:44 range at some point. Once he hits that he'll run in the high 3:25's-3:26 range for 1500m and 3:42-3:43 range for the mile.
Yes, this. Jakob need to go sub-1:45 (at least) if he hopes to run 3:25/3:42. Was hoping he would do that this spring, but he ran that weak 1:47 for 4th at some minor meet in Norway in early June. He's more about the 5000 and even 10,000 going forward so unlikely he'll ever do the speed work required for WRs at 1500/mile. Nit picking, of course. He's the greatest middle distance runner alive today. If Grant ran 12:46, Jakob definitely capable of going much faster. But does Jakob want titles or times? All indications are he's more interested in titles.
No shame in that but Jakob is turning 22 in a week and I see him limited in his turnover which means he will likely not run faster at 1500m than he has. Then he will probably continue to be a sub 13 and sub 27 man who occasionally wins a global championship for a few more years. This is his ceiling, so best possible personal bests would be 12:40 and 26:25. A pretty good career one might say.
Hmmm...???
"No shame in that but Jakob is turning 22 in a week and I see him limited in his turnover which means he will likely not run faster at 1500m than he has".
I'm not seeing much logic with the above statement, and or any credible evidence supporting it. If you're going to throw out a half baked statement like this I would expect some real data and or knowledge.
My take: Jakob is only 22 years old, and given the fact that he has the necessary strength given his 5000m best of 12:47, and the necessary speed endurance of a 3:28 pb in the 1500, it's just a matter of increasing his speed work volume while trimming down the 5000m strength work volume. Jakob's 800m is the softest of his pb's, and I can see him easily getting down to the 1:44 range at some point. Once he hits that he'll run in the high 3:25's-3:26 range for 1500m and 3:42-3:43 range for the mile. Again, he's only 22 years old and is unafraid to run as fast as he can. His training is well thought out and I'm sure he has a plan in place over the next 4-6 years.
Should be fun to watch.
Do you even THINK while you compose your posts? You immediately allege that I have made assertions without evidence and then you subsequently assert that you “can easily see him getting down to the 1:44 range.” Yet you provide no evidence other than your easy sight? Please….
Said Aouita was world class at 800m, 1500m, one mile, 2000m, 3000m, 2 miles, 5000m and 10,000 m
Coe was world class at 800m, 1000m, 1500m, and one mile.
No comparison
David Rudisha was world class at 800m only but his career is still more impressive than Aouitas. This is athletics, not a circus.
Of course I'm a bit bias given my LRC handle, BUT, are you seriously saying that Rudisha's career was more impressive than Aouita's? Mulitple WR's at various distances, Oly Champ, World Champ, and a career that spanned from 1983-1989 at the highest level. The dude ran 1:43 in 1988 near the END of his career.
You cannot be good at only the lower end of the range and be considered better than those who are better at the entire range.
Seems obvious
WRONG! IF someone could sprint a 9.2 100m but he didn’t like doing the 200m and when he did it a couple times his best was 19.8 most of us would say this 9.2 man was the greatest sprinter of all time, especially if he had multiple World and Olympic Gold medals.
The dude ran 1:43 in 1988 near the END of his career.
Wake up dude! You need to be better than that.
Aouita run already 1:44:36 in 1983, the year where his elite level was born.
Aouita base speed in the 800m is better than Morceli.
Morceli was 1:44 High at age 20 and didn't improve much later:
I was just looking at this:
Moceli 21 AUG 1994 Köln ASV Sportfest der Weltklasse, Köln Rank 3 Time:1:44.89
Yeah but you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Morceli was faster than Aouita at 1500m. Aouita was faster at 5000m, although Morceli only ran it maybe once? It seems that Morceli was likely faster than Aouita at either 800m or 5000m or else it makes little sense that he was faster than Aouita at 1500m. So maybe Morceli had more 5000m ability than Aouita, if we go by his faster 3000m, but he just never ran it much.
"No shame in that but Jakob is turning 22 in a week and I see him limited in his turnover which means he will likely not run faster at 1500m than he has".
I'm not seeing much logic with the above statement, and or any credible evidence supporting it. If you're going to throw out a half baked statement like this I would expect some real data and or knowledge.
My take: Jakob is only 22 years old, and given the fact that he has the necessary strength given his 5000m best of 12:47, and the necessary speed endurance of a 3:28 pb in the 1500, it's just a matter of increasing his speed work volume while trimming down the 5000m strength work volume. Jakob's 800m is the softest of his pb's, and I can see him easily getting down to the 1:44 range at some point. Once he hits that he'll run in the high 3:25's-3:26 range for 1500m and 3:42-3:43 range for the mile. Again, he's only 22 years old and is unafraid to run as fast as he can. His training is well thought out and I'm sure he has a plan in place over the next 4-6 years.
Should be fun to watch.
Do you even THINK while you compose your posts? You immediately allege that I have made assertions without evidence and then you subsequently assert that you “can easily see him getting down to the 1:44 range.” Yet you provide no evidence other than your easy sight? Please….
Not to banter back and forth, but what the hell.
1) You did make an "assertion", I put it in quotes. Hmmm..."limited in turnover" is your expert opinion and knowledge? Please explain if you can.
2) And YES, I did "assert" myself AND supported it with a very clear explanation regarding his speed training and strength endurance. Clearly, I don't have a crystal ball, and cannot guarantee anything, as nothing is in this sport, but I can and did provide reasonable data and knowledge which is backed by personal experience.
You cannot be good at only the lower end of the range and be considered better than those who are better at the entire range.
Seems obvious
WRONG! IF someone could sprint a 9.2 100m but he didn’t like doing the 200m and when he did it a couple times his best was 19.8 most of us would say this 9.2 man was the greatest sprinter of all time, especially if he had multiple World and Olympic Gold medals.
Right.
A 9.2 100m guy who can only run 19.8 for 200m.
Realistic made up example.
Like a 3:25 1500 m guy who cannot break 5:00 for the 2k
Aouita run already 1:44:36 in 1983, the year where his elite level was born.
Aouita base speed in the 800m is better than Morceli.
Morceli was 1:44 High at age 20 and didn't improve much later:
I was just looking at this:
Moceli 21 AUG 1994 Köln ASV Sportfest der Weltklasse, Köln Rank 3 Time:1:44.89
Yeah but you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Morceli was faster than Aouita at 1500m. Aouita was faster at 5000m, although Morceli only ran it maybe once? It seems that Morceli was likely faster than Aouita at either 800m or 5000m or else it makes little sense that he was faster than Aouita at 1500m. So maybe Morceli had more 5000m ability than Aouita, if we go by his faster 3000m, but he just never ran it much.
Think we have to make judgements based on actual results and not could haves
Aouita run already 1:44:36 in 1983, the year where his elite level was born.
Aouita base speed in the 800m is better than Morceli.
Morceli was 1:44 High at age 20 and didn't improve much later:
I was just looking at this:
Moceli 21 AUG 1994 Köln ASV Sportfest der Weltklasse, Köln Rank 3 Time:1:44.89
Yeah but you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Morceli was faster than Aouita at 1500m. Aouita was faster at 5000m, although Morceli only ran it maybe once? It seems that Morceli was likely faster than Aouita at either 800m or 5000m or else it makes little sense that he was faster than Aouita at 1500m. So maybe Morceli had more 5000m ability than Aouita, if we go by his faster 3000m, but he just never ran it much.
Morceli was running 90% of his races in the 1500m/mile while Aouita was dispersed between mile/5000m and the 800m.
Obviously Morceli learned from Aouita "experimentations".
WRONG! IF someone could sprint a 9.2 100m but he didn’t like doing the 200m and when he did it a couple times his best was 19.8 most of us would say this 9.2 man was the greatest sprinter of all time, especially if he had multiple World and Olympic Gold medals.
Right.
A 9.2 100m guy who can only run 19.8 for 200m.
Realistic made up example.
Like a 3:25 1500 m guy who cannot break 5:00 for the 2k
A 3:29 guy who can only run 14:06? I guess we may as well give Seb Coe a 7:30 and 13:05 if we want to be “realistic.”
Yeah but you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Morceli was faster than Aouita at 1500m. Aouita was faster at 5000m, although Morceli only ran it maybe once? It seems that Morceli was likely faster than Aouita at either 800m or 5000m or else it makes little sense that he was faster than Aouita at 1500m. So maybe Morceli had more 5000m ability than Aouita, if we go by his faster 3000m, but he just never ran it much.
Think we have to make judgements based on actual results and not could haves
Yeah but you cannot have your cake and eat it too. Morceli was faster than Aouita at 1500m. Aouita was faster at 5000m, although Morceli only ran it maybe once? It seems that Morceli was likely faster than Aouita at either 800m or 5000m or else it makes little sense that he was faster than Aouita at 1500m. So maybe Morceli had more 5000m ability than Aouita, if we go by his faster 3000m, but he just never ran it much.
Morceli was running 90% of his races in the 1500m/mile while Aouita was dispersed between mile/5000m and the 800m.
Obviously Morceli learned from Aouita "experimentations".
David Rudisha was world class at 800m only but his career is still more impressive than Aouitas. This is athletics, not a circus.
Of course I'm a bit bias given my LRC handle, BUT, are you seriously saying that Rudisha's career was more impressive than Aouita's? Mulitple WR's at various distances, Oly Champ, World Champ, and a career that spanned from 1983-1989 at the highest level. The dude ran 1:43 in 1988 near the END of his career.
Wake up dude! You need to be better than that.
Rudisha: Two Olympic golds, two WC golds. Didn't avoid his competition.
Aouita: One Olympic gold and a bronze, one WC gold and a bronze. Did avoid his competition.
Rudisha had a decently long career at the highest level, from 2007-2016. He also competed in an era that's much more competitive.