Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

Interesting… The Wood Report has a bold simulator projection showing NC State with five (5) women in the top-8 in their early season projection!!!

Overall, they have Parker Valby winning the title this year over Mercy Chelangat, with Katelyn Tuohy coming in 3rd. They show Taylor Roe coming in 4th on her home course. And then it gets very interesting…

They are simulating NC State’s Samantha bush in 5th, NC State’s Sydney Seymour in 6th, NC State’s Kelsey Chmiel in 7th and NC State’s Marlee Starliper in 8th!!!

Wow… If THAT all happens, that will be unprecedented…. 5 in the top 8???

NC State women are going to win but that WILL NOT happen.

It’s also crazy to think Sam Bush will be the 2nd runner for the Wolfpack - ahead of Chmiel? Puhleeeze… She’ll be NC State’s 5-6 runner and will be 25-30 overall. If the 5th runner is in the top 30 that is pretty damn good so I do believe that they will do well.

The Wood Report is a nice conversation starter early in the season and it is fun to predict, but there is not enough information yet for it to be based on anything.

NC State will put 6 in top 20... First time in history? 1,6, 8, 12, 14, 18, 45... Team score will be under 50... Maybe 40...

That’s be real here……I’m an NC State fan but there is no way they have any chance of 4 in the top 20 let alone top 6. They would have 3 in the top 20 if Kelsey was 100% (actually they would have 3 in the top 10), but that is not reality. NC state is the team to beat but they are not going to be unstoppable at all because of health. They have two in the top 10 with Tuohy and Starliper, but after that they may have nobody right now who can break in the top 20. they do have a lot who are between 20-50 though!

I'm not really buying this "insider intel" that Kelsey is still seriously injured. She must be almost healed at this point. She's on video running with the top group as of just a couple days ago, and has been running with the team since practice started. Why would she be running right now if the injury was so serious?

Dude... NC State put five in the top 20 in the 5K in the spring... Those are all the best distance runners... And chmiel is back... Have six runners who are easily top 20 potential... Things could go amazing they get six in the top 15.... or five in top 30.... either way no one else will be close!

No where did I say that she is seriously injured. But she must have been pretty hurt to miss a whole track season. So hopefully and maybe by years end she will be in good enough shape to get in the top 20, but I’m sure she is not even close to the shape she was a year ago. Don’t be surprised if she is not racing next Friday, and if she does, she will be fighting to get in their top 4.

Ezrun, who do you think these top 6 are that will be in the top 20???? The only three I see is Tuohy, Starliper, and Kelsey if she can stay healthy and train all season? Sam Bush has potential but will probably be top 30 ( she is not as good of a CC runner as track runner). Who is the other two?

Seymour and shaw both 1534 5k runners... Bush would be let down not to be top 20 she was 32 last year... If u go by 5k times last year state has 6 runners in top 15 or so... With 4 runners all around 1534 and chmiel and tuohy faster...

If u think starliper has top 10 potential than why not the rest they were as good or better than her last year including track season 5ks in late spring

Seymour ran even with valby at regionals xc 2021 finishing 3rd... Shaw hasn't done great in the past but obviously has potential with many 5Ks of 1540s or better... They should all have a lot of motivation to do well

I mean there's a reason the wood report has every runner I just mentioned in the top 10 except for shaw who is at 13.... A lot of runners graduated from last year and NC State has six of the top 15 returning 5K runners in the nation!

Anyway it's a tough course and a lot can happen between now and then but they certainly have the potential

A lot of the top runners graduated from last year, definitely less competition

Is this graduation thing something new? After a few years, there will be nobody left.

Dude...XC is a lot different than 5K on the track. There are a lot more runners in the NCAA championship XC meet than the NCAA 5000 final.

NC State is good and will more than likely win. You're deluded, though, if you think "Things could go amazing they get six in the top 15.... or five in top 30..." It's just not going to happen.

Correct. They didn't put 5 in 1500, 5k, 10, and steeple. Let's use the steeplechase as the metric.

***Personal insult and name-calling deletd by LRC**

Tell me why would a guy who takes the trouble to start a website to predict cross country have six of their runners ranked in the top 15

You realize this guy does this for a living or at least as a really involved hobby and programs computers to make predictions and he has predicted six of their runners being in the top 15

Obviously this means that six of their runners have the potential to do this and it's the exact opposite of being delusional

And the 5K on the track is the closest approximation we have in a track event

And the fact that six of their runners rank in the top 15 of returning NCAA runners this year means they have a pretty good chance in a 6K cross country race...

And further... you don't think that pretty much every top distance runner, attempts to run a fast 5k during track season...

Yeah sure some specialize in other events but almost every runner who is a serious distance runner and a serious threat in cross country is going to try to lay down a fast 5k

And out of every one of those runners that is returning to college... six of the top 12 times were done by NC State runners

Top 15 returners or are they actually ranked top 15 when considering freshmen and transfers?

dude the guy started a website I think he's smart enough to realize that there are freshmen and transfers... And why would transfer be any different... I mean transfers were college students so they would count with comparing results...And