Parker Valby/Natalie Cook - what am I missing?

You didn't watch the interview. She talked specifically about easy runs. She has done 2.

What does that mean? There are 20 women in the US who are faster than Tuohy and there are hundreds in the world. Her times are good for the NCAA but she would be 200 meters behind the best Americans and would get lapped by the best runners in the world. So how is your prediction working out that she is better than everyone?

I mean, Casey Clinger and Conor Mantz took 2 years off without working out whatsoever (allegedly) and within a few months of training were running NCAAs and competing for titles.

The secret to running fast is to not run

That was a bogus stat. The only track 5K she had ever run was over a year ago and that was coming off of injury. In XC she finished 4th in the SEC, 2nd at the south regional, and then was on the front at Nationals before fading over the last K to 27th. In January before injury she ran an 8:53 3000 which was good for #6 in the NCAA. Tuohy's PR was #7.

It's kind of obvious that I'm talking about all the dopey predictions of United States girls her age or younger who are going to be better than her in a few years...

How long has that been going on and how many have that have been true? There have been at least 10 girls in the last few years who were all going to be better than her and crushing her times and how did that turn out?

So saying another of her contemporaries here in the United States that is going to crush her in a few years, what are the odds that that's going to be true?

Obviously I'm not referring to international runners who are already better than her

Whenever Tuohy wins/has a breakthrough, he is not wrong to note that there's always the next person that someone will hype from within the race or in the high school ranks.

Also as far as the NCAA thing it is disingenuous to say she'd be 200m back. Even if it's true (I somewhat doubt it), Monson, Schweizer and Cranny ran in the NCAA. Tuohy compares plenty favorably. She's on a nice trajectory.

And honestly the thing is with any of 2e's competition is none of those girls have any speed

I mean 2e was busted on for not being fast but I could honestly see her running four or even sub 4 in the 1500 in a year or two

Right now all of the college distance girls I've seen never even broken 410 besides her and none of them are even close to that

I really can't see any of those girls improving by 15 seconds in the 1500 to get close to her ability to close!

She is 20 years old. There are no age group awards any longer. she is slower than 20 US women and significantly slower than a handful. She is an adult and they are adults. It is you who is making silly predictions if you are claiming that she will surpass them. The fact is that her progression has been significantly less than the fastest Americans along the lines of what you said that nearly every top American was not the fastest high schooler. I agree with you that the fastest American women in a few years who are Tuohy's age will not be named Tuohy and will not have been elite high school runners.

Also 2e ranks top 10 in the US and probably top 100 in the world... Although I haven't checked on that so not sure, but anyway so you're being a bit grandiose

I would put way more money on Valby running 14:30 than Tuohy.

Valby said that her coach told her to just stick to Tuohy. If they both like to front run then the strategy makes sense — stick behind the girl who also likes to front run and is a little faster, and then try to take her if you can. The race seemed to work out as everyone planned.

And 2e is 12th in the U S and 68th in the world

And there's only one girl in the world who is her age or younger that is faster than her!!!

And there's only a handful of girls her age or within a year of her age in the top 100!!!

And yes age does matter because every girl better than her in the USA is at least 4 years older!!!

So as usual you're wrong about everything!!!

Do you know what "is" means? Picking a time frame to make false claims makes you look silly. If Tuohy is injureed next January-May, is every woman in the world who posts a time forty-seven 5 months magically faster than her? Is Tuohy faster than Houlihan?

The Newbury Park boys run >70 mpw and they’re better even after accounting for gender differences. She’ll have to run more to be good in the NCAA

A few things:

1. People are as different in as many ways as we can clearly see and people don't just look different, they are different. When I was coaching HS, I steered certain types of athletes away from high mileage college programs, especially MD runners from going to schools with strong XC programs. For many years, I thought Stanford underachieved because its female athletes were overtrained, Stanford was basically a meat grinder. A ton a low mileage athletes like Arinna Lambie and the Trotters sisters, etc., had miserable experiences in that type of program. Obviously, there are athletes who thrive in those environments as well.

2. As has already been stated, some athletes have more natural talent and don't need to train as much and have a lot of mental strength that makes them tough competitors.

3. Don't discount cross training. You don't need to run as much if you are getting leg and cardio stimulation in other ways.

4. Unfortunately, many times young female endurance athletes perform well off of low mileage because of their exceptionally low body fat which is like a performance enhancing drug.

A perfect example of "everyone is different."

I see Parker as being similar to Sinclair Johnson in terms of talent, but also in terms of responding better to low mileage. Btw, several years ago I predicted Johnson was going to be really good long before she even won an NCAA title. I see Parker eventually having the same success if she can remain patient and accept incremental improvements. Btw,
Sinclair Johnson will be on the U.S. WC 1500 team...write it down.

idk what the hell yall are arguing in this thread but all i know is that these message boards are always proven wrong

well:

message boards said katelyn will never pr after highschool and after her knee surgery, but she prs in the 1500m while still out of shape after only less than 2 months of running

message boards said katelyn has no kick, fast forward today, she has one of the best kick as a 5000m runner with the fastest 1500m

message boards said katelyn will never win a title and yet here you are all today, being extremely insecure over her success because she once again proved you all wrong

last time, yall said katelyn and sam bush have a bad relationship but the truth is that they are the bestest of friends and love and respect eachother

one thing about going against katelyn, you will forever and always will be proven wrong by her