Do You Think Jakob & Cheruiyot Can Run 3:26 This Season? Why, or Why Not?

High hopes wrote:

No, I just don't think Korir can time trial and lacks consistency. If he got into a race with Brazier or Amos going all out then he can hang with them, but I can't see any of them going close to Rudisha's record.

I think you're being very bullish on the 7:20. Bekele is the greatest talent distance running has seen and couldn't get near 7:20. Cheptegei went for the 3k record last year and fell to pieces, it's generous to even call it a record attempt. Even the second fastest time in history is 3 seconds away, which is a pretty huge gap over 3k. Just watching the wavelight during that Cheptegei attempt made my legs fill with lactic, it's ridiculously fast

Your Korir take is based on what? Did you see him run in 2018 at all when he hung onto the pacemakers and ran 1:42s? I'm saying I think they have 1:41.9x ability, not that they can challenge the record. Korir has lacked consistent health, but when he's on he's a great 800m runner.

The 7:20 thing you're just missing that to challenge the record you need to be in 3:31 or faster shape. 3K is too low a distance for Bekele. It probably is for Cheptegei as well. But for athletes like Barega, Katir, Jakob, McSweyn, Kejelcha et al. they have the speed to hang around. I'm not going to say the record will go down this year, but rather with more athletes running 7:24.9-7:26, it's only a matter of time for the cream of the crop (aka Jakob, Barega) to start pushing in the 7:20-7:23 range just as we've seen athletes running faster in all the distances.

OozmaKappa wrote:

But this is what i keep saying. The talent pool in the mile is egregiously overhyped. In spite of all the technological inprovements, all that current era milers have produced are a couple of 3:28 guys.

Is it overhyped? The only guys who are considered really great are Jakob and Tim. Jakob is a phenom who has run 3:28.3 in a championship race at age 20. Tim has run 3:28 with a 52-second first lap and soloed a 1500m championships in 3:29 which is unprecedented.

Nobody really thinks the next tier is historically that great, besides Manangoi maybe (even then, he's in a tier many Kenyans have been). Kerr, Wightman, McSweyn, Kipsang (to this point) are all good runners but not generational talents (globally, not nationally). I guess some might say that for Kerr, but that would be NCAA bias I'd think.

Jakob Ingebrigtsen, Selemon Barega and Laura Muir announce their attacks on world records

The Norwegian, the Ethiopian and the British announce their intention to attack the 1,000m, 3,000m and 1,500m records respectively at the upcoming World Indoor Tour meetings in Lievin and Birmingham

BY ISMAEL PEREZ 01/20/2022

The indoor track at the highest level is about to take off with the start of the World Indoor Tour next Friday 28 in Karlsruhe (Germany) and there is a hunger for world records in athletics , according to the statements of some of its main figures. from the middle distance, the Olympic champion of 10,000 meters Selemon Barega , the one of 1,500m, Jakob Ingebrigtsen ; or the runner-up of the kilometer and a half, Laura Muir .

The Norwegian will travel to Lievin, in the north of France, next Thursday, February 17, with his brother Filip Ingebrigtsen, to look for a 1,500-meter race even faster than the one from a year ago, when he broke the indoor European record of 3 :31.80.

It was the first race of a memorable year for Jakob Ingebrigtsen , who at 21 years of age is not satisfied with the fifth mark in history and believes that he is in a position to save the 76 hundredths that separate him from the world record that the Ethiopian Samuel Tefera established in Birmingham in 2019 with 3:31.04 . The brothers already train for it at the altitude of the Sierra Nevada High Performance Center, where Mohamed Katir also runs these days.

Source (translated from Spanish):

https://www-runnersworld-com.translate.goog/es/noticias-running/a38824476/laura-muir-selemon-barega-jakob-ingebrigtsen-anuncian-records-pista-cubierta/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Is Laura Muir too going to the sauce of doping?

Her envergure are bigger than her real talent.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

OozmaKappa wrote:

But this is what i keep saying. The talent pool in the mile is egregiously overhyped. In spite of all the technological inprovements, all that current era milers have produced are a couple of 3:28 guys.

Is it overhyped?

Yes. They cant even come within 2 seconds of the wr despite having supershoes, superspikes, supertracks, and superpacers the likes of which no one before them has ever had the luxury of setting records in. If they were running 3:27 lows i would understand the hype, but barely scraping 3:28 while every other event is setting new WRs really makes you think, "gee, these milers sure are overrated"

OozmaKappa wrote:

Yes. They cant even come within 2 seconds of the wr despite having supershoes, superspikes, supertracks, and superpacers the likes of which no one before them has ever had the luxury of setting records in. If they were running 3:27 lows i would understand the hype, but barely scraping 3:28 while every other event is setting new WRs really makes you think, "gee, these milers sure are overrated"

The pacing was objectively better in 1998-9, so I'm going to disagree with you there. In Monaco this year, the first two laps were paced fine but Tim ran the last 700 with no help. Compare to El G who got 3 full laps in the mile WR and 1200 in the 1500m one. Also they're not barely scraping 3:28, they're running 3:28 low despite these not being optimal spots (Olympic final, sub-optimally paced Monaco with Tim having an injury). You will see at some point when these guys get a better-paced race.

I'm curious whether Katir, who sneaks into a couple shots at the high altitude center in the latest Team Ingebrigtsen season, runs any workouts with them. That 1500m indoor world record is soft and should be beaten easily by Jakob in that attempt. Sub-3:30 indoors is within range.

OozmaKappa wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Is it overhyped?

Yes. They cant even come within 2 seconds of the wr despite having supershoes, superspikes, supertracks, and superpacers the likes of which no one before them has ever had the luxury of setting records in. If they were running 3:27 lows i would understand the hype, but barely scraping 3:28 while every other event is setting new WRs really makes you think, "gee, these milers sure are overrated"

You obviously - in your strongly biased mind - won´t recognize that Jakob already last year had potential for a 3:27 low.

Will you be man enough to eat your humble pie in full public or will you sneak away in shame if your predictions fail? As others before you when their biased predictions regarding Jakob later made them look like fools (Alfred de Musset and runnergrl come to mind but there were many more).

And we should not only talk about your negativism towards Jakob but also towards Hocker and the generational talent Athing Mu.

If we grant the same benefit of the doubt to every other runner that youre so willing to grant to Yakob, Yakob still comes up short. It's only if you exclusively treat Yakob as a better runner than he has proven to be that you can argue against my points. I bet you'd feel differently if I argued that people who didnt win gold medals had the potential to do so in order to downplay the achievenements of those who did win them. You cant have it both ways.

Hocker is overrated due to thriving in the G League.

Mu is likewise overrated for the same reason but also has the added benefit of thriving in one of the weakest disciplines of the current era.

This is objectively true.

OozmaKappa wrote:

Hocker is overrated due to thriving in the G League.

Mu is likewise overrated for the same reason but also has the added benefit of thriving in one of the weakest disciplines of the current era.

This is objectively true.

You never fail to fail.

Hocker is a 3:31 guy and has one of the fastest 200m finishing kicks ever. Also he's run 8th fastest indoor mile ever, ahead of many WC and OG medallists and is still only 20 years old, therefore the hype.

Athing Mu already has earned herself a legendary status. 2 x Olympic Gold, AR and 8th fastest 800m ever. Most likely the fastest legit female 800m runner ever with an incredible 49s 400m speed, all that being 19 years old.

And you are a nobody, some lunatic on the running boards with surprisingly little knowledge in athletics. Prove me wrong.

The talent pool is only overhyped if you think doped performances like those of all world records now should be the norm.

Master of LolIy wrote:

OozmaKappa wrote:

Hocker is overrated due to thriving in the G League.

Mu is likewise overrated for the same reason but also has the added benefit of thriving in one of the weakest disciplines of the current era.

This is objectively true.

You never fail to fail.

Hocker is a 3:31 guy and has one of the fastest 200m finishing kicks ever. Also he's run 8th fastest indoor mile ever, ahead of many WC and OG medallists and is still only 20 years old, therefore the hype.

Athing Mu already has earned herself a legendary status. 2 x Olympic Gold, AR and 8th fastest 800m ever. Most likely the fastest legit female 800m runner ever with an incredible 49s 400m speed, all that being 19 years old.

And you are a nobody, some lunatic on the running boards with surprisingly little knowledge in athletics. Prove me wrong.

Do I really have to repeat myself?

Being a slow guy with a "fast" (Hocker's kick is not actually fast compared to the top milers) kick just means youre a slow guy with poor pacing strategy. Youre so delusional youre commending him for what is in reality a flaw holding him back.

Mu is competing in a discipline whose world lead is a performance rated at 1253 points. That's Mu's 1253. The 2nd best performance of the season, the biggest competitor to Mu, was rated at 1237. These are both personal bests. Athletes of this caliber would be pushed out of the podium in like 7 of the 11 running events. The only events where someone of Hodgkinson's caliber has the 2nd fastest time is the 100m hurdles and the 400m.

The womens running events in order from most to least competitive are as follows:

10000m, 100m, 400mH, Marathon, 200m, 1500m, 5000m, 3000mSC, 400m,

800m, 100mH.

The womens 800m comes in 10th out 11. There's several events where in order to win a gold you needed to beat a WR holder, and more where you needed to beat +1260 caliber athletes just to win medals. Again, Mu's pb is rated at 1253, and all she needs to do to win gold medals is beat the next best person whose pb is rated at 1237. No top athlete in any other discipline has a lower obstacle to clear than Athing Mu besides the 100mH champ(no pun intended).

Mu and Hodgkinson can both level up, but right now the 800m is far below the level of the majority of the running events.

Please don't - it still won't make it become true.

LOL. Being able to turn on a world class finishing gear is holding him back? Tell it to McSweyn. Btw, the only person in 1500m who had a better 200m kick was Coe.

Hocker is 100% gonna be the reason for Ingebrigtsen to move up to 5000m, since he will not be in the mood to run 3:29 every damn time in order to win and anything slower than that will result in getting outkicked.

Stop splitting hairs. 1:55.04 AR and two olympic gold medals being 19 years old is beyond fantastic. I am also positive, that if she had better competition, 1:54.50 would be possible, which would put her in top 3 in ANY event. Have Wilson or Rogers pace Mu properly through 500m and 1:54 is in a bag.

The uncomfortable reason for 800m field being somewhat thin at the moment is that in the past years women had to compete against biological males, which massively impacted the field negatively.

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1. Hocker's kick is objectively fast compared to other milers. 12.20 in a 3:35 race. Yes if you look historically you can find a few guys who could have kicked this fast (and maybe even did), but not many contemporaries. Tim, Jakob, Willis and so on have never closed this fast.

2. Clearly his pacing strategy isn't bad when he easily made the Finals (bronze medalist Josh Kerr was lucky to survive the first round), and then PR'ed in the Final after a season 3x as long as his competitors.

3. You have stacked this the wrong way to downgrade Mu's accomplishment. She's better than the Steeple where the world's best was unable to compete, and the WR holder was injury. While the 400 features Shaunae Miller-Uibo who is historically among the best, it drops off wildly and it's likely Mu could win silver in that event. I'd put it behind the 800 as well. So to me it's 8/11.

4. Mu also crushed the field in the 800, which is something to account for. Short of DSD athletes and doped Eastern Europeans she stands pretty high up there in the history of the event.

High hopes wrote:

Bekele is the greatest talent distance running has seen and couldn't get near 7:20.

These contradict each other. If he really was the greatest talent, he wouldn’t have struggled to run 7:20. You guys are not looking at the facts here.

Fact: a sub-3:30, sub-12:40 man can run 7:20. Komen’s PRs we’re 3:29 and 12:39. No other man has ever accomplished this. If any man breaks both these barriers in the same season, they must be considered a threat to the record.

Fact: Getnet Wale is one of the best 3000m runners in the world right now. Saying that the 3rd fastest man ever is “not on the shortlist” for fastest 3k runner right now is idiotic. He was also the Ethiopian champion and trials champion at 5k. Honestly, he needs to drop the steeplechase and give the 5k and 1500 a few tries. He may be the best 5k runner in the world.

Fact: Cheptegei was not in peak form when he made his attempt. He may not have broken it anyway, as his 1500 speed is lacking. But anybody that looks at that version of Chep and thinks it’s the same that ran 12:35 or closed in 3:58 to win the Tokyo 5k is an idiot or willfully ignorant.

objectiveobserver wrote:

JBaller33 wrote:

Gjert has already said that he thinks Jakob is at his peak due to the high mileage he has already run as a teenager and the toll that takes on his body. He said that if there are any improvements, they will come in very small increments and that the focus of Jakob's training will be holding his Olympic gold medal form through the next Olympic cycle, and possibly one more Olympic cycle after that. Jakob will be 27 in Paris 2028. Gjert has also said he can't see Jakob's career lasting until he is 30.

Can you provide a source for Gjert´s statement or is it just something you heard in the town?

This is wrong.

Both Gjert and Jakob expect him to peak around age 24-25, so several more seasons.

my two pennies wrote:

Fact: Getnet Wale is one of the best 3000m runners in the world right now. Saying that the 3rd fastest man ever is “not on the shortlist” for fastest 3k runner right now is idiotic. He was also the Ethiopian champion and trials champion at 5k. Honestly, he needs to drop the steeplechase and give the 5k and 1500 a few tries. He may be the best 5k runner in the world.

Yes, he won the 5,000 (12:53.2) with the 4 best Ethiopian 5,000 runners running the 10,000. You're basing a lot off of his 7:24.98 3,000m performance. Girma kicked the wrong lap within that one and Barega wasn't in his top form. Barega is one of the best junior athletes of all time and has run 12:43 as well as some of the most impressive 10,000m runs we've seen kick-wise. At the highest levels he has always produced. Jakob has won Olympic gold and run 3:28.3 and 12:49. Katir, Kejelcha and McSweyn have shown more 1,500 meter speed which gives them a high ceiling at 3,000.

Wale's got his sub-7:25 but I'm not convinced he is the talent you think he is, even though his mark is tops for now.

1. Better milers have never split a 100 that fast because they have better pacing. Cocker's final 400 splits arent even that fast compared to his contemporaries, you have to take 100 splits in slowass races to make the argument that Hocker closes historically fast. Realize that talking about 100 splits in the 1500 is as stupid as a sprinter bragging about sprinting the last 300m in a 5k faster than anyone else but still losing. Even if you had won, leaving that much for the end is ovjectively bad pacing.

2. Clearly it is bad pacing to anyone that knows anything about running or has any common sense. But I'll put it this way, either it's bad pacing and he can run faster than 3:31, or youre right and it's not bad pacing which means he cant run any better than his current pb. You cant have it both ways. You cant both claim that Hocker is faster than his current pb and also deny that the one thing holding him back isnt a factor.

3. I dont care about the Olympics. Your Olympics-centric view of the sport is stupid and youre wrong about the Steeple and the 400m. I'm talking about who is competing, period. But even if we go by just who was in Tokyo, the Steeple is still more competitive. Chepkoech went in with a pb rated above 1260 and the 3 medalists set PBs rated higher than Hodgkinsons. In the 400, Paulino is just as inpressive as Hodgkinson, the only difference is that Miller-Uibo is of a far higher caliber than Mu currently is. There is no way you can argue the 400 is less competitive. If I wanted to I could even use your lame excuse about men competing in the 400 displacing women.

4. Crushing a weak field doesnt mean anything. Medium fish, small pond. I already broke down the numbers to explain why the 800 is not competitive, you want me to do it again?

You are a good troll, I'll give you that.

1. 3:35s are not slow championship races historically, but you probably don't know that. Your pacing stuff is the gobblygook of a fool. This is an athlete who basically won or advanced easily in every championship 1500, mile or 3,000 that was prioritized for him since NCAA indoors. Hocker's tactics were sub-optimal at USAs in the final but pretty optimal everywhere else. They allowed him to have significant margins of victory, and take no chances in qualifying at the Olympics. Again, Josh Kerr couldn't match this and he won bronze and was 3rd in the Olympics. Numerous athletes with 3:29-3:30 PBs couldn't either.

2. At the end of an exceedingly long season at a few days past his 20th birthday he maxed out at 3:31.40 in a very well-paced, even race. He is not held back by his pacing or finish, he is held back by his overall fitness. He's not a 3:28-29 guy just yet, but he can look to get there. In slower races, he's already got the skills to compete above his level, which is why in the tactical rounds he made it more easily through than many athletes with better overall fitness but worth tactical abilities/closing speed.

3. The sport is about the Olympics and the Worlds. Unsure if you are being serious. Who cares about Chepkoech's PB when she was a shell of herself in Tokyo? The Steeple field had 3 athletes medal who would get gapped by an athlete not in Tokyo and an in-form Chepkoech. Paulino is a good athlete (though suspicious), either way Mu basically solo-ing to a clear victory is plenty strong. Please find examples of women solo-ing 800m finals in 57.8/57.4 and losing. You won't.

4. Mu is already 17th on the all-time list and most of the women above are DSD or Soviet-era doped to the gills. Not sure what you're looking for unless you can identify a woman who doesn't fit those two categories that would give Mu a real race