Omicron: risk goes way down, panic goes way up.

troll_69 wrote:

carmine9 wrote:

Fauci admitted as much on tv this week-end.

The number of people in the hospital testing positive for Covid is obviously going way up.

But are total hospitalizations going up? That is what the Vaxx lovers are claiming. If so, why? Is it typical of the season? Is it due to other things that are going around? Vaccine injuries? It's not omicron, that's for sure

ICU numbers are starting to surge.

Where did you get that info? Any data? Out of the ordinary for the season?

This does not answer the question. We all know Covid rates in the hospital are going up as omicron takes over. And that includes the people in ICU. As Fauci noted, they have Covid but many are not in there due to Covid,

The claim made was overall ICU numbers are surging.

Does anyone have any data on this?

By the way, Omicron is a cold.

5589998 wrote:

joed|rttt wrote:

It's not as mild as people are making it out to be. It really hasn't hit hospitalizations upstate where you are at, but it is already impacting New York City and Long Island. New York City saw a 130% rise in hospitalizations between Christmas Eve and New Years Eve and has more people hospitalized with COVID currently than the peak of last winter (and I am guessing that most of the new hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated individuals based upon data from Ontario).

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/03/nyregion/hospitals-ny-covid.html

And as we discovered in the first wave of COVID, what happens in the Northeast eventually makes its way to the rest of the country.

Delta started in the NE? ?

It became the predominant strain quickest in the NE.

As much as places like NY like to think that they are doing everything right with their prevention measures as far as COVID is concerned, much of their recent success was merely rooted in seasonal fluctuations in transmission and a high degree of herd immunity to recent strains achieved through a high degree of natural infection and vaccination. With Omicron's ability to evade immunity (or dare say exploit antibodies as a pathway for infection), it has shown us that New Yorkers are just as human as Floridians and the red states in their ability to spread disease.

carmine9 wrote:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/current-covid-patients-icu

This does not answer the question. We all know Covid rates in the hospital are going up as omicron takes over. And that includes the people in ICU. As Fauci noted, they have Covid but many are not in there due to Covid,

The claim made was overall ICU numbers are surging.

Does anyone have any data on this?

By the way, Omicron is a cold.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1avXjzr1xnc

The best resource would be the Hopkins website, but a lot of states haven't updated their data from the holiday weekends, so some states that are being strained are not showing up visually yet in the data. ICU space is one of the last indicators, as it typically takes a while before someone is sick enough for the ICU. You'll want to look first at places in the Northeast because that was one of the first places Omicron hit and the high population density is a perfect environment for COVID to spread this time of year. Places like Rhode Island, Kentucky, Massachusetts and Maine are starting to show signs, but hospitalizations are just starting to hit the stats. In a week you will have a clearer picture.

Up in Ontario, they had 143 COVID positive individuals in the ICU on the final day of the year. Two weeks prior, they had 108 (about a 25% increase, and about a 47% increase above the five-month average). As for hospitalizations in general, they had 814 in the non-ICU portion of the hospital, two weeks prior, they had 212 (about a 384% increase, and about a 443% increase above the five-month average).

You have to remember, though, that the ICU is the last place a patient ends up before the morgue. When my kid's Sunday school teacher's 50-year-old husband died, he was in the general hospital for about two weeks, was moved to the ICU when his kidneys started shutting down and died a couple days later. That's why all these people looking at CFRs before there has been a reasonable amount of time for deaths to occur are complete nonsense. Two years into the pandemic, a person shouldn't have to explain how COVID typically progresses, but here you go:

Day 1: The symptoms usually start with a fever, a dry cough and mild breathing issues which may get worse over the next week. You also may have symptoms of a sore throat, coughing up mucus, diarrhea, nausea, body aches and joint pain.

Day 7: Breathing may become difficult or laboured. This is called dyspnoea.

Day 9: Sepsis may start, this is the body's extreme response to an infection that can lead to organ failure or injury.

Day 10-12: People who have mild COVID-19 start to have an improvement in their fever and cough, but in serious cases their fever and cough continues.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) starts to be diagnosed, this is a respiratory problem when there is widespread inflammation in the lungs.

Day 12: This is the median day to be admitted into the intensive care unit (ICU).

Day 15: Acute kidney and cardiac injury becomes evident.

Day 18.5: The median time it takes from the first symptoms of COVID-19 to death is 18.5 days.

If a location is strained today, they are under strain from cases that originated two weeks ago. With cases having risen since and continuing to rise (and not expected to level off for at least two more weeks in the NE and another month for most of the country, many hospitals will be hammered for the next month to month and a half depending on where one is at in the country).

carmine9 wrote:

EpiRunner wrote:

I already explained why in this thread and every other thread I've engaged with you in.

Seeing as how I have never before posed this question, I doubt that.

Why don't you quickly summarize? If you actually have answered this before ought to be easy

Sure, no problem.

First, you have a strawman argument. Omicron can absolutely cause symptoms beyond cold symptoms, it just does it less frequently than delta.

Now that we have that out of the way...

As you've noted in several threads, hospitalizations are over-counted because some asymptomatic cases are counted due to admission testing. In a previous thread I linked to an article for a study done by the VA that estimated 40-50% of cases at the VA were asymptomatic. In another it was estimated that 2% of infections lead to actual hospitalizations for covid during the delta surge in Indiana. Let's use that 2% number for delta, and let's say that it's 0.5% of omicron.

During the delta surge, most areas saw daily positivity rates of around 4%. They're currently pushing 20%. If you have a city of 1 million people, that's 40,000 cases. With 2 percent of that, you're looking at 800 hospitalizations. In that same city, with a positivity rate of 20%, you're looking at 200,000 cases. At 0.5%, that's 1,000 cases. Now do we know that the hospitalization rate for omicron is 0.5%? Of course not. We don't know exactly what percentage of cases are omicron vs delta vs something else, and it'll be a little bit before we really know that. However, we do see cases of hospitalizations rising, and the data there will be getting better. Starting tomorrow, hospitals in New York will have to report whether patients are admitted for covid or for something else.

In the meantime, we have situations like this

Colds don't land kids in the ICU.

people suk wrote:

Yeah funny how the news is not mentioning the vaxxed are getting this “variant” almost exclusively.

But hey let’s urge everyone to get boosted even though that’s what’s making everyone sick😂

Makes sense. Wake up nerds. Game over. No more scam virus. Time to move along.

In NSW Australia, 92.7% double dose, 94.3% single, yet more than 80% of those in ICU are unvaccinated. Is this what you perhaps meant instead, dumb*ss?

As the cases go up, they are 70% under the age of 35- where vaccination is under 90%, and who comprise the mobile, bar, club, event attendants, and the ICU number is increasing every day due to the unvaccinated, who need to be treated by stressed out vaccinated health staff.

Why are you people so dumb? Wouldn't you just keep quiet if you are an idiot, or do you do this in actual real life discussions too? I doubt it

Vaccines still working in NYC.

I've been told since Delta in August that they would stop working any week now. Still waiting!

people suk wrote:

Yeah funny how the news is not mentioning the vaxxed are getting this “variant” almost exclusively.

But hey let’s urge everyone to get boosted even though that’s what’s making everyone sick😂

Makes sense. Wake up nerds. Game over. No more scam virus. Time to move along.

Get a life numbnuts. You believe what you want because you wanna be right. Either that or your girlfriend is very ugly.

The $Trillion$ spent by taxpayers on this Tetris/shell game come to fruition with the hand-wringing of lesser apes of this cesshole over a common cold.

EpiRunner,

Thank you for your persistent level headed reasoning. Unfortunately, you have only proven yourself correct that no amount of facts, logic, reason, and even compassion will change the minds of those who disagree with you. Their arguments are strawman and conjecture, but they are absolutely convinced they are right.

Harambe wrote:

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data

Vaccines still working in NYC.

I've been told since Delta in August that they would stop working any week now. Still waiting!

The people who made them said they don't work ,....hence boosters and more booster and still Covid galore.

Very good post.

Healthy folks like most here should be okay if they will be okay if they get Covid.

But the medical system can still get wrecked by Covid.

Most people are terrible at assessing risk.

LevelHeadedReasoning wrote:

EpiRunner,

Thank you for your persistent level headed reasoning. Unfortunately, you have only proven yourself correct that no amount of facts, logic, reason, and even compassion will change the minds of those who disagree with you. Their arguments are strawman and conjecture, but they are absolutely convinced they are right.

Taking a position on incomplete information is the definition of conjecture.... Anyone who says anything other than "I don't know" regarding things the science isn't settled on is using conjecture...

When Robert Malone is deleted off YouTube and Twitter for his opinions you know the debate is 100% political and has absolutely nothing to do with science.

Liberals are morons.. wrote:

When Robert Malone is deleted off YouTube and Twitter for his opinions you know the debate is 100% political and has absolutely nothing to do with science.

You mean a self described inventor of mRNA (incorrect), a PhD dropout who believes he was hard done by and on a vendetta against everyone else involved in mRNA development, should be allowed to spread misinformation, knowing that many people would believe his stories???

Come on man .... :-)

Liberals are morons.. wrote:

LevelHeadedReasoning wrote:

EpiRunner,

Thank you for your persistent level headed reasoning. Unfortunately, you have only proven yourself correct that no amount of facts, logic, reason, and even compassion will change the minds of those who disagree with you. Their arguments are strawman and conjecture, but they are absolutely convinced they are right.

Taking a position on incomplete information is the definition of conjecture.... Anyone who says anything other than "I don't know" regarding things the science isn't settled on is using conjecture...

When Robert Malone is deleted off YouTube and Twitter for his opinions you know the debate is 100% political and has absolutely nothing to do with science.

Exactly, the CEOs of YouTube & Twitter are Leftists and will ban everyone providing a different professional opinion that goes against the narrative of the Liberal politicians in this country that are forcing the vaxx on people. Just as your user name implies, you get it.

I am Sam wrote:

Liberals are morons.. wrote:

When Robert Malone is deleted off YouTube and Twitter for his opinions you know the debate is 100% political and has absolutely nothing to do with science.

You mean a self described inventor of mRNA (incorrect), a PhD dropout who believes he was hard done by and on a vendetta against everyone else involved in mRNA development, should be allowed to spread misinformation, knowing that many people would believe his stories???

Come on man .... :-)

WTH? Sam...are you a Lefty? Lol. Malone is a virologist & immunologist earning his MD from Northwestern Feinberg School of Medicine. He worked on early mRNA technology and knows a thing of two about it.

Malone is not spreading misinformation - maybe you're spreading information Sam. Lol. Communist leadership in this country wants to suppress Malone's professional opinion on the dangers of the dangers of mRNA vaccines because it would derail their nefarious agenda of vaccinating every living human in this country. Why do think all these tyrannical Democratic govenors & mayors have implemented strict mandates & passports? 🤔

Same with renowned scientist Prof Sucharit Bhakdi who supports Malone on the dangers of these mRNA vaccines:

The less actual danger there is the more media fear has to be generated to keep anti freedom anti human policies in place. Its pretty logical

I think the problem goes well beyond this. It's not that epidemiologists haven't been communicating with the public; it's that they have been communicating and that the content of those communications is largely information that is inaccurate, doubtful, or incomplete. This has led to the public being unable to move on from its initial overestimation of the dangers of Covid (https://archive.ph/20200830045016/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/20/uk-public-believe-coronavirus-death-toll-100-times-higher-really/) Obviously there are exceptions to this (and judging by your thoughtful replies on this thread, you fall into the exceptions!) but on the whole, it seems like for every epidemiologist making a logical and nuanced argument, there are ten others asserting that e.g. having schools without mask mandates will result in mass death.

[quote]joed|rttt wrote:

[quote]carmine9 wrote:

Up in Ontario, they had 143 COVID positive individuals in the ICU on the final day of the year. Two weeks prior, they had 108 (about a 25% increase, and about a 47% increase above the five-month average). As for hospitalizations in general, they had 814 in the non-ICU portion of the hospital, two weeks prior, they had 212 (about a 384% increase, and about a 443% increase above the five-month average).

Again, positive Covids in the ICU is not the same as total number in ICU, not total number in ICU due to Covid.

Omicron is a head cold or less.

Why would this hammer hospitals?

Early treatment is quite effective. The fact the CDC does not suggest this in their guidelines for original and delta covid.

No, I'm not a lefty...just usimg my own brain, try that sometime.

Malone dropped out of his PhD programme, he 'worked on' mRNA in his supervised research. He is angry about not getting enough credit, something that he has been riled up about at many people for years and riled up about the Alchem drug too.

So no, he is a disgruntled guy wanting to be heard.

As for your comments about communists , well stop smoking weed