Hocker vs Ingebrigtsen in Tokyo

Centros PB from 6 years ago? Get serious.

Say, can Ray Allen shoot 3s today like he did 6 years ago? Can Usain Bolt run 9.6?

2600 bro wrote:

Centro and Hocker both have that je ne sais quoi that is takes to medal at a global final...

We haven't seen that yet from Jakob.

One other thing to note. Hocker outkicked Centro by about 0.5 seconds over the last 400 despite Centro having an unobstructed route for the entire lap, while Hocker had to find his way out of a box, and run wide on the last turn.

I am not saying he wins in a 3:30 race. The questions are whether it becomes a 3:30 race, and if it does how does he respond (since he has never been in that fast of a race before). We can speculate, but we don't know as we have not seen it.

AP5000 wrote:

There is no world that exists that Hocker is in 330 to 331 shape. You have lost your mind. If he was in that shape he would have been faster than 335. He about killed himself to run 335. Is he faster than 335? Probably a little. Until he does it he's a 335 guy.

3:50.6i makes him significantly better than a "335 guy".

You can't claim to the rational one while ignoring this piece of data.

AP5000 wrote:

There is simply no chance that Jakob I is going to risk losing an olympic gold medal to a fast kick guy who can't, until otherwise proven, run within 7 seconds of him. 7 seconds is a lifetime in the 1500.

What possible reason would Jakob I (or any of the other 330 to 331 guys) run a slow tactical race? There is absolutely no incentive to do that and risk getting kicked. You don't think they watched this US trial and gathered intel on their competitors?

The incentive is that there are a half dozen 331 or less guys, and they will all have it in the back of their mind that they will be outkicked if they are the ones to do the work. It is the same incentive that led to all of the gold for Mo.

Which of these guys have shown the capability to run near their top speed without a paid pacer or without Jakob or Timothy pulling them through?

Even Jakob will have that fear in him. What if I put in all of the work for a 3:28, and don't have it at the end? He just does not know if he can do it by himself. None of them do.

Correct me if I'm wrong and any of these guys have front run something like a 329.

He hasn't done it. That's the data dude.

It's a fact that Jakob I is the 8th fastest all time. It's a fact that Hockeris 424th all time. It's a fact that Jakob I is 7 seconds faster than Hocker until he proves otherwise.

Those are facts based on data. You have conversion speculation. If conversions were accurate then Hocker would be 26 seconds slower than Jakob I in the 5000, but he is 32 seconds slower (and he should be even less than 26 based on your conversion to what he should run in the 1500 that for some reason he hasn't managed).

2600 bro wrote:

AP5000 wrote:

There is no world that exists that Hocker is in 330 to 331 shape. You have lost your mind. If he was in that shape he would have been faster than 335. He about killed himself to run 335. Is he faster than 335? Probably a little. Until he does it he's a 335 guy.

3:50.6i makes him significantly better than a "335 guy".

You can't claim to the rational one while ignoring this piece of data.

Lol, there’s no point arguing with this guy, he’s got tunnel vision on paper PRs instead of actually looking at race quality and context. There is no 332-333 guy in history that’s been capable of running the race hocker did yesterday. And many 330 guys would not be able to either. To think Hocker’s time trial limit is only 332 is absurd. Whether or not you want to base your prediction of his Olympic finals potential on hockers paper 1500 or is your call, but no smart odds maker would treat him like a “335 guy”.

Sopa de Sabadell wrote:

You surely don't mean Centro's 3:30 PB? I mean anyone in that race would have beaten 3:29 PB Nick Willis.

Entire mid-pack at the US trials (including Engels) ran 2-3 seconds slower than their SBs. So if we are being generous, we can assume that Hocker and Centro also could run 2-3s fast then they did at the trials. That's how we get to 3:32-3:33.

Wynne and Engels ran 3-3.7 seconds off their SBs. You realize that there is greater separation in a race where one runs all-out vs. one where all of the separation is built in the last 300 (with the final 150 creating most of the damage). Hocker has already run a 3:50 mile which is worth a 3:33. He is clearly much better now than he was then...

AP5000 wrote:

He hasn't done it. That's the data dude.

It's a fact that Jakob I is the 8th fastest all time. It's a fact that Hockeris 424th all time. It's a fact that Jakob I is 7 seconds faster than Hocker until he proves otherwise.

Those are facts based on data. You have conversion speculation. If conversions were accurate then Hocker would be 26 seconds slower than Jakob I in the 5000, but he is 32 seconds slower (and he should be even less than 26 based on your conversion to what he should run in the 1500 that for some reason he hasn't managed).

Lol. You just compared a 1500 to mile conversion to a 1500 to 5000 conversion as some sort of false equivalency in an attempt to prove conversions don’t work. Just think about that for a moment.

if its that simple why even run the race? fastest pb surely wins every time right? obviously jakob is in a different league right now, but to say hocker doesnt have a chance at a medal is dumb. it might not be a great chance, but i wouldnt be surprised at all if one of the US men is on the podium unexpectedly (again).

I see what you are say but there is a difference between fear and confidence. Jakob I knows that if he runs 328 no one can beat him.

I'm saying they learned their lesson from 2016, corrected it at Doha and will do it the same in Tokyo.

Fat Slow Lurker wrote:

Realistically Hocker is about as good as Jakob was at the same age--which is a hell of an accomplishment in itself and bodes very well for Hocker's future--but it is probably not realistic to expect Hocker to hang with Jakob this year. If the final is an absurdly slow tactical race like 2016 (and if Hocker makes the final in the first place) I like Hocker's chances, but otherwise no way.

No just no when jakob was 19 he ran 3:28 this post is just delusional when Hocker runs 3:28 this year and 12:48 next year then you can talk. Hocker is a talent but jakob is on another planet. An absurd comment

yahoo1991 wrote:

2600 bro wrote:

3:50.6i makes him significantly better than a "335 guy".

You can't claim to the rational one while ignoring this piece of data.

Lol, there’s no point arguing with this guy, he’s got tunnel vision on paper PRs instead of actually looking at race quality and context. There is no 332-333 guy in history that’s been capable of running the race hocker did yesterday. And many 330 guys would not be able to either. To think Hocker’s time trial limit is only 332 is absurd. Whether or not you want to base your prediction of his Olympic finals potential on hockers paper 1500 or is your call, but no smart odds maker would treat him like a “335 guy”.

The funny thing is that during Hocker's 3:50.6 there is a 1500m segment where he broke 3:35! So they guys "facts" are wrong.

Also, let’s not forget that centro finished 3rd, 4th, and 2nd at the WCs/olympics in 2012-2014 with a PR on paper that was 3-4 seconds behind top guys he was beating. There’s a reason they actually run races instead of just taking peoples time trial PRs.

AP5000 wrote:

I see what you are say but there is a difference between fear and confidence. Jakob I knows that if he runs 328 no one can beat him.

I'm saying they learned their lesson from 2016, corrected it at Doha and will do it the same in Tokyo.

"They." Tim Cheruiyot is not in the race. The only guy who seemingly would be inclined and capable of making it a fast race is Jakob. He could do it, but it's hard and we've never seen him do it. In the championship races he's run and won he's controlled the pace vs. European fields that don't have the same firepower as a world-class field. What he does is anyone's guess, but we've never seen him solo a 3:29 or 3:30.

How is that a false equivalency? Do you even know what this is?

Are you saying you can't compare the 100 to the 200 because I hear experts do that every time. How many times have you heard what Usain Bolt can run the 200 in based on his 100 time?

I simply showed how conversions don't work on tracks. It's not like I compared his 5,000 XC time.

AP5000 wrote:

How is that a false equivalency? Do you even know what this is?

Are you saying you can't compare the 100 to the 200 because I hear experts do that every time. How many times have you heard what Usain Bolt can run the 200 in based on his 100 time?

I simply showed how conversions don't work on tracks. It's not like I compared his 5,000 XC time.

Hocker has covered 1500m faster than 3:35 before. There's no conversion needed.

AP5000 wrote:

What global final has Hocker medaled in?

We get it that you're out to cut down Hocker and his fanbois, very VERY cool and great energy you're bringing to the thread. I won't be betting that Hocker makes the Final and no one is denying that Jakob has proven himself at a much higher level in international competition. But before you get too excited:

- The PR gap stands at just under 5 seconds when you factor Hocker's 3:50.55 (worth 3:33.62)

- As aforementioned - Hocker has yet to run a true time trial for 1500m. No one should doubt that he can't run 3:32 right now, maybe better - hell, look at Kessler's improvement with the right TT.

- In non-DL or global championships, Jakob has not run blazing times. 3:34 and 3:36 to win NOR 1500m titles; 3:37 for Euro indoors. Jakob is considerably faster but that doesn't mean he can dictate the race.

- Hocker has a unique quality that Wheating and Andrews had where they can make magic happen in weird ways. He's a wild card for this level of competition - he could make magic or he could get boxed in and walk away in the heats/semis. The reality is no one will be focusing or strategizing against him (unlike Jakob) and that works to Hocker's advantage.

- And finally, for the millionth time: the Olympics are never a time trial and history shows much slower guys medaling/beating those with faster PR's (Centro, LEO, etc etc).

I still believe Centro has a better shot of getting to and placing well in the Finals compared to Hocker, but I wouldn't rule him entirely out just because Jakob ran 3:28/7:27/12:48. In 2010 Wheating went from 3:37 to win NCAA's in May, to 3:51.7y at Pre in early July to 3:30.91 three weeks later in Monaco. No one saw that improvement coming from a guy who'd come into the season with 3:38 and 1:45 on his resume.

AP5000 wrote:

There is no world that exists that Hocker is in 330 to 331 shape. You have lost your mind. If he was in that shape he would have been faster than 335. He about killed himself to run 335. Is he faster than 335? Probably a little. Until he does it he's a 335 guy.

Please stop insulting people. If you don't *like* Hocker, just say it. Everyone's happy to hear you out, but telling someone they "have lost [their] mind" seems counterproductive.

He "killed himself to run" 3:35 because he (and the rest of the field) had just gone 2:56-2:57 through 1200m. What was he supposed to do? Kick, right?

Yes, Hocker's PB is 3:35. But are you telling us that the fact that he opened in 2:00 and closed in 1:50 means he's not in better shape than someone who's hoovered to a 3:35 in Zurich while running 57s the whole way? What were the splits at the Herculis meet last year? I got about 55, 1:52 watching the race at

Soooo, it's not quite apples to oranges.

It's pointless to keep arguing. You guys think a 335 guy (it's what he is) is in the same league as a 328 guy. It's beyond absurd. You just can't reason with irrational people.

Let's mark this post and come back post 1500 final.

P.S. I asked what global final Hocker was in because someone stated he and Centro were in them before. I guess I'm a dick for calling out that fallacy.