If you accept that course is 6K then Valby and Chelangat have both gotten very fast this year and Tuohy has no chance. I do not. The splits make no sense and only make sense if the course is short of 6K.
I tend to agree with you.
Side note- I checked the barrios splits and noticed some similar acceleration patterns, again in the middle of the race.
Many of you have spent way too much time trying to equate times and courses and squinting at splits on Google maps. Touhy’s strength, closing speed, body of work in college and the ease in which she’s hammered the best competition this fall in the last K make her a clear favorite on a strength based course, IMO. This is Cross Country and she’s demonstrated the total package. I don’t care that someone ran a fast time on a flat course or if said course is short. This will be a championship race against all the best competition on tough course.
Side note- I checked the barrios splits and noticed some similar acceleration patterns, again in the middle of the race.
Many of you have spent way too much time trying to equate times and courses and squinting at splits on Google maps. Touhy’s strength, closing speed, body of work in college and the ease in which she’s hammered the best competition this fall in the last K make her a clear favorite on a strength based course, IMO. This is Cross Country and she’s demonstrated the total package. I don’t care that someone ran a fast time on a flat course or if said course is short. This will be a championship race against all the best competition on tough course.
I appreciate your concern, and you are right the true assessment will be on the 18th...but I do like to try to figure out what is behind things that don't seem to make sense, rather than just proclaiming, in this case, the course must be short. And it is my time to waste.....
His big reveal of Seymour as the weak link was amusing. Seems like we've all known that for a while now.
He also said he had Jepkirui of OSU as the best 3rd runner for any team while he was staring at a screen that had Samantha Bush ahead of her and having literally just said Bush's name.
His big reveal of Seymour as the weak link was amusing. Seems like we've all known that for a while now.
He also said he had Jepkirui of OSU as the best 3rd runner for any team while he was staring at a screen that had Samantha Bush ahead of her and having literally just said Bush's name.
yup there are a few things that seem to confict with each other
In the SEC race what was the average PR margin by the top 20? If I recall it was 50-60 seconds. At some point you can arrive at safe conclusions. Once I saw the third place finishers time and the very fast times for the rest of the top ten, it was obvious that trying to make projections apart from margin of victory was pointless.
I have a question. Could a team like NC St theoretically run the "2nd" 7 at Regional, maybe come in 3rd, but still qualify for Nationals? They have beat a lot of other teams that will finish in top 2 in their Regions. Or is that playing with fire? I know last year in the top heavy Mountain region BYU for example rested some and finished 3rd and got in as well as several other who finished 4th and lower.
I have a question. Could a team like NC St theoretically run the "2nd" 7 at Regional, maybe come in 3rd, but still qualify for Nationals? They have beat a lot of other teams that will finish in top 2 in their Regions. Or is that playing with fire? I know last year in the top heavy Mountain region BYU for example rested some and finished 3rd and got in as well as several other who finished 4th and lower.
As long as they didnt finish something weird like 7th id think they'd get in as the first team of whatever slot they finished in (3rd, 4th, 5th etc.,) Theyd have an absurd number of points based on winning Joe Piane, the deepest conference, and the most loaded field of the year in their 3 most recent races.
I have a question. Could a team like NC St theoretically run the "2nd" 7 at Regional, maybe come in 3rd, but still qualify for Nationals? They have beat a lot of other teams that will finish in top 2 in their Regions. Or is that playing with fire? I know last year in the top heavy Mountain region BYU for example rested some and finished 3rd and got in as well as several other who finished 4th and lower.
As long as they didnt finish something weird like 7th id think they'd get in as the first team of whatever slot they finished in (3rd, 4th, 5th etc.,) Theyd have an absurd number of points based on winning Joe Piane, the deepest conference, and the most loaded field of the year in their 3 most recent races.
thanks sounds like safest to run a team that should finish top 3-4 at at worst then
Many of you have spent way too much time trying to equate times and courses and squinting at splits on Google maps. Touhy’s strength, closing speed, body of work in college and the ease in which she’s hammered the best competition this fall in the last K make her a clear favorite on a strength based course, IMO. This is Cross Country and she’s demonstrated the total package. I don’t care that someone ran a fast time on a flat course or if said course is short. This will be a championship race against all the best competition on tough course.
I appreciate your concern, and you are right the true assessment will be on the 18th...but I do like to try to figure out what is behind things that don't seem to make sense, rather than just proclaiming, in this case, the course must be short. And it is my time to waste.....
I didn’t proclaim anything, you are getting defensive because you and others have gotten sidetracked trying to measure CC times from 2 races and extrapolate it. Again, if you step back from this and look at the body of work, it’s clear Touhy is the favorite. If you have watched the top women run live you can also see what your analysis of splits doesn’t show…who is grinding, who is cruising and what was the subjective effort that went into these performances. Did they go to the well or is there more in the tank? Those subjective data can’t be seen from splits or even a live stream. That is only seen on the course in person during the last K and people that have been following this sport closely for years can see it.
I appreciate your concern, and you are right the true assessment will be on the 18th...but I do like to try to figure out what is behind things that don't seem to make sense, rather than just proclaiming, in this case, the course must be short. And it is my time to waste.....
I didn’t proclaim anything, you are getting defensive because you and others have gotten sidetracked trying to measure CC times from 2 races and extrapolate it. Again, if you step back from this and look at the body of work, it’s clear Touhy is the favorite. If you have watched the top women run live you can also see what your analysis of splits doesn’t show…who is grinding, who is cruising and what was the subjective effort that went into these performances. Did they go to the well or is there more in the tank? Those subjective data can’t be seen from splits or even a live stream. That is only seen on the course in person during the last K and people that have been following this sport closely for years can see it.
I did not mean to imply you said anything. My statement was directed at myself - before I would proclaim something I would like to have a reason. I apologize for the confusion on that.
His big reveal of Seymour as the weak link was amusing. Seems like we've all known that for a while now.
Sorry, but I have never heard one piece of useful information from these guys. I find them more frustrating than anything...as they only say the most obvious of points, and half the time they seem misinformed.
His big reveal of Seymour as the weak link was amusing. Seems like we've all known that for a while now.
Sorry, but I have never heard one piece of useful information from these guys. I find them more frustrating than anything...as they only say the most obvious of points, and half the time they seem misinformed.
And people pay subscription $$ for this. I agree the analysis is weak and they seem more focused on entertainment.