Atlantic Region XC 2008

tcnj will not finish 5th. that is my prediction.

Plattsburgh runs single file because they always want to be ready to run train on a bitch. doesnt look like it will ever come in handy though.

why so serious wrote:

Plattsburgh's times this weekend beats Ithaca's any race so far this season. If Ben Jackson ran where he did this weekend (3rd man), at Toga, then my friend, Plattsburgh would have beaten Ithaca at Saratoga...It's going to be a battle and I think the coaches see that, since they have them tied in the polls this week.

I don't think its a random shot in the dark for Plattsburgh to make NCAA's. They have a much better front runner, and on a day that they put it together, their 2-5 are better than Ithaca as well.

Sure Plattsburgh's times were faster than anything Ithaca has run this season; but SUNYAC's was on a much easier course.

oh, easier than lehigh? Easier than Saratoga? It looked like it was actually slower than Saratoga.

Geneseo's 8k is actually very comparable to Slu's (where Ithaca ran too, and these two teams tied).

Who said Yernye was done, he ran this past weekend...will lynch not run him because he wasn't top 7? If they had him they could really do damage.

I feel like Nichols peaks his team pretty inconsistntly from year to year.

Either way I think TCNJ will be hard to beat, they will beat both the burgh and Ithaca through 3 men.

I agree peaking for IC has been inconsistent in the past. But Jim Nichols is hardly in control anymore from what I've heard and seen. Eric Sambolec has done an amazing job the last four seasons and as I stated earlier the top 5 from IC PR'd huge last year at regionals even with Curt Bell having some sort of head contusion. How many other teams can say all 5 of there scoring runners pr'd by that much? Four of those runners return this year, there shouldn't be a doubt in your mind that there gonna use the same formula.

One thing I will say about IC that plays into a disadvantage from non-bomber standpoint is that there is always something with them. Drew Hodge out for the season, Tim Shea sick, Pat Mcgreal quitting (years ago), Jim Nichols peaking efforts, holding out many of there top 7 on random weeks, Eric Sambolec stepping in and transitioning... Thats why they appear to be weak in polls some weeks and why they may not have the support of so many people on this board.

But the bottom line is that why so serious is wrong. Man for man SUNY P is weaker.

And not to rag on him but we all know that SUNY G's home course is way easier then TOGA, don't be ridicules.I;m not talking times here, I'm talking the pure demographic and complexity of the course. Sure maybe some people have run faster at one or the other, but thats why racing is great, you have good weeks and bad and there are lots of factors.

-Lastly I'd like to say that if why so serious is "more serious" than I am taking him for and if the REG really is close between IC and SUNY P for a potential 5th place finish... the 6 and 7 man from Ithaca will destroy the 6 and 7 from Plattsburg come regionals and that is a promise

Again not saying they CANT be beaten by SUNY P, like is said I just believe that if SUNY P beats IC, something will have gone wrong and TCNJ will walk away with 5th substantially.

why so serious wrote:

oh, easier than lehigh? Easier than Saratoga? It looked like it was actually slower than Saratoga.

Exactly, Lehigh and 'Toga are the fastest courses around. St. Lawrence seems to run a bit fast (if dry), and Geneseo tends to run pretty true. Former Bomber seems clueless about these courses.

Good analysis, (Veni Vidi Vici : Reup De Doo). Your response is fact based, and well thought out. I understand your points completely, but I disagree on the head-to-head matchup between SUNY P and Ithaca. Regionals is not a dual meet. Mike Heymann will finish ahead of Ithaca's #1 (probably Drew) by a considerable amount. Alex Sico will be closer to Curt Bell (Ithaca #2) than Drew Hodge will be to Mike Heymann. After that, we're matching up 3-5. At RPI, the 3-5 spread for Ithaca was 19 seconds. At Letch, the 3-5 spread for PSU was 17 seconds. The times are within a few seconds, although I admit that those few seconds do favor IC. At both Letch and RPI; IC and PSU had 7 men under 27:00.

What I'm trying to say is that the difference here is not the 2-7 men. Neither IC nor PSU will have a 6 or 7 in front of the other team's 4 or 5. At regionals, you are going to have 5 Cortland men, maybe 4 Geneseo, 2 TCNJ, 2-3 NYU, Tom Williams, Travis Stewart, finishing BETWEEN Mike Heymann and Drew Hodge. That is a lot of points to make up, and I do not see Ithaca's 3-5 putting that many people between them and PSU's 3-5.

Lastly, specualtion is great, but in the end, each one of them has to run 8 klicks. That's why I love this time of year, and can't wait for Nov 15th.

(Veni Vidi Vici : Reup De Doo) and others - do you think 5 teams will go if Ithaca is 5th? If Platts is 5th? If TCNJ is 5th? I think minimum 4 teams are a lock.

Yes, Letchworth is easier than all of those courses!

Letchworth State Park is a pancake...there isn't a single hill. The turns slow you down somewhat, but it's still an incredibly easy course.

Lehigh and SLU's course are comparable, but I would give Lehigh a slight edge in ease over SLU.

The Saratoga course is substantially more difficult than any of the those courses.

I've raced on all of these courses and my best times are from Letchworth, Lehigh and SLU. My PR at Saratoga was significantly slower than what I ran on any of those courses.

OK everyone, on a more light-hearted note I know many people will be traveling to the north country for THE REG and to Oberlin for THE NATTY to support their respective teams. But one step at a time.

So what I would like to propose is a pre-reg party Friday night and Saturday morning at SLU for all those B-team and Alumni Lushes out there. Most athletes attending should have at least someone in there party familiar with the SLU campus do to past events so when we pick a spot to host on campus finding the location should not be a problem.

What I am thinking is Friday night maybe that parking lot across the road from the indoor track and XC start line that connects to the golf course could be a good spot. Just a tailgate style party with various drinking game competitions and car music. We can go walk around the golf course and get rowdy when it gets later as long as we focus on not getting in trouble. However, I personally have run from SLU campus safety man times and let me tell you they are no team USA.

Most of us will probably end up drinking before we head to our respective camp sites, rooms, houses etc at some point in the night or sleep in our cars across from the meet anyways so we might as well have fun doing it together.

If there are any SLU non runners, or SLU non-racing team members that would like to put us up or show us some fun Im sure we would be much obliged.

lets get this going

Love racing SLU campus safety? wrote:

OK everyone, on a more light-hearted note I know many people will be traveling to the north country for THE REG and to Oberlin for THE NATTY to support their respective teams. But one step at a time.

I hope you don't go to Oberlin for Nationals, since they are in Hanover.

ok former bomber, you got me. Geneseo is an easier course than SPAC and Paul Short because it doesnt have any hills, BUT it plays out for slower times...

look at Cortlands guys at Paul Short v. Geneseo and you will have your answer, and Geneseo was 4 weeks later in the season. Geneseo and slu are equal courses, lehigh is about 30 seconds faster.

All I am saying is Plattsburgh CAN beat Ithaca, and that former bomber has no clue how to compare courses...sure a course may not have a hill on it, but that doesn't mean that it produces faster times, You have to run for 2 miles up a gradual hill on a slanted ground at Geneseo...not VERY fast.

Ask Rage if you should debate with me.

Where are his states and regional predictions by the way?

"How many other teams can say all 5 of there scoring runners pr'd by that much?"

I think most teams did, due to the course being on cinder and short...they only pr'd by 20 seconds? Most teams averaged 40 seconds.

I think, from what happened last year, it would be a stretch for 5 teams to go to nationals if TCNJ is not the 5th team. Last year SLU finished 5th and didn't get to go. I think they were ranked 4th going into regionals, their top 4 all ran prs and they still didn't get to make the trip. It seems last minute switching in placement, even if a team runs reasonably well, really hurts a regions chance of advancing more teams.

Adding to this problem is that many people, including myself, think that the top 5 teams in our region are pretty far and away from the 6-8 teams. The fact that our region is so deep up front the #1 runners on a team will really make a difference at regionals. If you consider that a man will have to run close to 25:00, maybe faster, to be in the top 10 a lot of good runners (I'm thinking Hodge) may finish well outside the top 20.

I won't be into SL County until 9pm-ish but I am definitely on board for this. I know of a half dozen others from varying AR schools who will also be down for the meet and greet when they catch wind of it. If you times/locations change please post an update.

seek and ye shall find...

guys

1. Cortland (come on guys made me look bad with my sweep)

2. NYU (closer than I care to admit)

3. SLU (these next 5 will be amazingly tight and could go anyway)

4. Geneseo

5. P'burgh

6. TCNJ

7. Ithaca

8. Fredonia

9. Rocha cha

10. Medgar Evers (go cougars!)

girls

1. Geneseo (served humble pie on this one)

2. Cortland

3. SLU

4. TCNJ

5. P'burgh (ran like crazy at YACS)

6. Ithaca

7. B'port (thought they were supposed to be good this year?)

8. Rocha cha

9. Hamilton

10. John Jay College of Criminal Justice (Sammy Pitts knows what I'm talkin about)

not much fun with these picks as they're pretty straight forward and unfortunately the norm now

he's right dont debate with wss...you might as well go punch yourself in the face 50 times...its more logical, it gets a lot more done, and you feel much better afterwards...

why so serious wrote:

ok former bomber, you got me. Geneseo is an easier course than SPAC and Paul Short because it doesnt have any hills, BUT it plays out for slower times...

look at Cortlands guys at Paul Short v. Geneseo and you will have your answer, and Geneseo was 4 weeks later in the season. Geneseo and slu are equal courses, lehigh is about 30 seconds faster.

All I am saying is Plattsburgh CAN beat Ithaca, and that former bomber has no clue how to compare courses...sure a course may not have a hill on it, but that doesn't mean that it produces faster times, You have to run for 2 miles up a gradual hill on a slanted ground at Geneseo...not VERY fast.

Ask Rage if you should debate with me.

Where are his states and regional predictions by the way?

NO WAY is Lehigh 30 seconds faster than Letchworth or SLU. Boo hoo, a gradual hill! Give me a break.

Letchworth is wide open with plenty of room to get by people, unlike half of Lehigh or SLU's courses which have portions in the woods that can make it difficult to get by people. Miles 2-4 at Lehigh are all rolling hills, a more difficult feat than a 2 mile gradual hill.

I know what I'm talking about, I raced these courses for 4 years. It is YOU sir that have no clue on how to compare courses. Consider yourself debated; and I could care less what this Rage character thinks.

Abbott is that "angry" enough for you?

Ahahahahah...HURRICANE BARNES!

I've run them both...letchworth yields slower times...dont know why but it does (footing?)