More Kenyans busted

Probability says their top runners are cheaters. But if I'm wrong why don't you simply ignore what I say rather than maintaining your sustained apoplectic fit? It must be because the thought that your beloved Kenyan runners are a fraud is anathema to you. Your life would likely lose all meaning if you had to accept it as the truth.

It is happening, bust after bust by the AIU.

I have not lied at anything. My question from your post before was to Armstronglivs.

Initially you couldn't clearly state what you meant regarding this issue. And you attacked me and not this terrible person for his unbelievable statement: "Any Kenyan (of some level) IS a cheater."

I can read and I can think. So I made your statement absolutely clear. But that's also not OK for you.

How do you rate Armstronglivs unbelievable statement? You wouldn't say it like that but you don't have any real problem with it?

Any Kenyan (of some level) IS a cheater. Shame on all of you who attack me and not him.

They are not "my beloved runners".

"All Kenyans (of some level) ARE cheaters." Like a fact.

"Probability says" that hundred positives out of thousands PROVE that the all of the thousand negatives are also cheaters. No, Arm, probability doesn't say this.

Any Kiwi runner IS a cheater - "probability says so".

Btw, Coe is also a cheater. You have said so (you can't come close to a current WR without doping).

"Any Kenyan who wins a race of importance is likely a cheater."

So more than 50% of those Kenyans are cheaters.

This is what you believe? Or do you state it as a fact?

For Armstrong your statement is almost the same than his: "All those Kenyans ARE dopers". Like it's a fact.

Close to impossible to have serious discussions in letsrun about such subjects.

You're arguing a case that is irrelevant. It doesn't matter if all top Kenyans are doping or "almost all" or "most" or even "many". You're simply debating how rotten is the apple. When it comes to Kenyan doping, the apple is rotten to the core.

Can you provide the data you used to determine probability?

I wonder whatever happened to "casual obsever", and why he no longer posts under his registered handle.

Both statements are unfounded nonsense. If not, then the same question to you -- what is the data you used to determine likelihood?

Speaking of what the AIU knows ...

The AIU has repeatedly told us that, while the numerator of Kenyan busts is large, the Kenyan denominator is much larger -- there is a pyramid of talented Kenyan runners, numbering in the hundreds or thousands. This depth of talent is unique to Kenya.

The AIU knows, along with WADA and ADAK, some of the reasons behind Kenyan doping positives, including insufficient anti-doping education among these hundreds/thousands of runners leading to unawareness of the athletes' obligations during normal medical treatments for bona fide ailments and injuries, and foreign exploitation and local opportunism.

Even with all these factors in combination, we are far from the point where we can suggest with basis that the prevalence of Kenyan doping is more likely than not, even among winners at important races.

And none of this speculation about prevelance at the top of performance advances any argument that these doped distance runners are any faster than they would have been without doping.

The problem with your post here is that your two sentences in the middle can be said about every country and athlete -we can simply in principle not rule out doping for anyone. (Nor can we accuse anybody rightly without reliable positive samples). Better testing / investigation seem to be the only way…

This is not how doping works at all! -We know it’s fairly easy to get hold of doping in every country. My home country’s (Norway’s) list of doping busts through the years in the mid-and distance running is zero, but that is of course of no relevance when it comes to judging our current runners. No relevance at all! And one could even speculate that the top elite in Kenya is cleaner than in other countries (because of all the testing, and possible fear from the busts) -speculations are always without limits, and can go all ways… But one does not punish innocent athletes for being born in a country..!

Ah so you do understand! Did my explanation ("i.e. over 50% of them") help?

So why did you pretend you didn't understand, and kept lying about what I said, and then faked outrage?

Great post. Tusen takk.

Two more Kenyans banned.

pulsesports.co.ke

Hosea Kimeli given three year ban as 2023 Zagreb Marathon title stripped off his name

Pulse Sports

Hosea Kimeli has been slapped with a three-year ban by the AIU and all his results since October 8, 2023, have been disqualified, including the forfeiture of any titles, awards, medals, points, prizes and appearance money

Open link

Color me surprised.

One used Epo, one testo. Good old PEDs, working since decades.

No need to speculate on figures about percentages and probability. How many Kenyans have been busted? How many more compared top other distance running countries?

There's a post above that answers your question with yet another of their marathon winners banned (and we know doping doesn't help marathon runners - so you say). It's getting like swatting flies now for the AIU.

Well said. That will shut up the nothing-to-see-here crowd.

I guess the answer to my question must be "no" then. You didn't have that data point when you posted.

Are you trying to suggest Hosea Kimeli is one of Kenya's "top runners"? I think we have different ideas about how many runners can fit on the top of Kenya's pyramid of talent.

Sure, he did win the Zagreb marathon -- but in a time of 2:25:23, in a stacked field where 2nd was a Rwandan 2:29:16, and 3rd was a Croatian 2:30:51. This would rank 1308th best performance -- FOR THE WOMEN. In 2023, he is currently ranked 815 in the marathon. He is too slow to appear on my preferred "alltime athletics" listings. His best marathon is 2:17:01 - significantly slower than Abebe Bikila's barefoot 1960 Rome Marathon -- long before blood doping and EPO were popular. A 2:17 is probably not enough to put him in the top-5000 alltime. His best overall performance is a 1:01:59 in the half-marathon, 8 years ago in 2015. I'm not even sure that would put him in the top-1500 alltime.

Is that one of your best data points that you used to determine what probability says about Kenya's top-runners doping?

This is what bugs me about this whole thing and why Kenya has to banned until they clean this up.

Yes, the prize money gets redistributed down the line BUT how many people may have run that race if those Kenyans weren't there?

Think of all the 10k-1/2 marathons all over the world with 8-12 Kenyans filling all the top spots taking all the prize money.

There may be clean runner who doesn't bother even running because he knows he has no chance at money.

He has to pay his own way there because he's not an invited runner.

If WA won't ban them I wish race and meet directors would just stop letting them run.

That loss of revenue will clean them up.

I'm old enough to remember the diversity at the front of s lot of these races with a Kenyan, Ethiopian or two in addition to Europeans and Latin Americans.