Atlantic Region XC 2008

I think what why so serious is trying to say is that yes, there aren't those few girls that are way up in the front by themselves but the times of the majority have got faster if you compare each sunyac race the past few years

I'm also a bit biased, but I think fifth place is Ithaca's to lose. TCNJ will have one guy up in the front pack, but Ithaca could put their top five in front of TCNJ's third, especially if Tim Shea rounds back into form in time for regionals. Same with Plattsburgh. Ithaca beat them at Saratoga, and they didn't look very strong at SUNYACs.

Then again, anything could happen on race day. And like I said before, TCNJ has a successful history on their side. At any rate I don't think five teams will go out of the Atlantic. Cortland and NYU are locks, Geneseo should be in (and top-20 at NCAAs), but St. Lawrence will probably be a bubble team. They're going to have to win NYSCTCs by a good amount and get a solid third or close fourth at regions to have a chance.

I think you're kidding yourself to think our region wont get 5 teams. The only way we wont is if a team other than SLU or TCNJ gets 5th. It will also depend slightly on how Keene does at the NE regional but I doubt that will be a factor.

Our region was strong at nationals last year, and many of our teams are running quite well again. Despite some serious mix-up, like last year, the AR will get 5 teams.

I'm also basing this prediction off of the flotrack's weekely DIII recap. The guy who writes that is also predicting 5 teams for us.

What is Tim Shea's deal?

Well then you should do the math if you think SLU is a bubble team at 4th. 32 of the 40 eligible teams make ncaa's.

The MAX the south and west will get is 3 -MAX!!! So that gets you to realy only 36 teams in the running for 32 spots. The central sucks as St Olaf and Thomas cant get out of their own way, and hamline is all over the place. They get 3 max most likely. St Thomas lost to Brandeis at Albany as well...

So now your down to 34 teams for 32 spots....

SLU beat people at Oberlin from Great Lakes region and MId East.

If you do the math there's almost no way the Atlantic doesnt get 4 teams, and would be hard pressed to not get 5 since, NYU crushed Dickinson and Alleghany, and Carnegie, and then Dickinson handily beat Haverford, showing the Mid East is not all that. They also beat all the Ohio schools head up. Going into regionals the Atlantic should have 2 top 5 teams in the country. Atlantic should get 5.

How many women's team might/will qualify from the Atlantic Region in 2008? Also do the top teams in the AR Rankings seem to be the ones in contention?

henry david thoreau wrote:

Former Bomber wrote:

Regional Men:

Cortland

NYU

Geneseo

SLU

Ithaca

TCNJ

Platts

I respect your decision but by i think it's a little biased by looking at your name.

switch Ithaca and TCNJ and you picked it exactly.

Nearly everyone posting has a bias toward one team over another. Even if that were not the case, my being an Ithaca Alum has nothing to do with my picking Ithaca for the 5th spot. They beat Plattsburgh at the Saratoga meet. TCNJ has not been running as well as Ithaca either. Ithaca's top 7 ran more impressive times at Saratoga than TCNJ ran at Paul Short...and Paul Short is a much faster course than Saratoga. A previous poster also made a good point about Tim Shea. He has been racing terribly lately, but if he comes around, the team will be that much deeper.

Travis Stewart seems like more of an individual lock than normal:

http://www.tcnjathletics.com/custompages/Cross%20Country%20HTML%20results/Mens_NJAC_08.htm

new polls are up.

on the mens side, NYU knocks genny out of the second spot, and plattsburg is now tied with ithaca.

for the women, brockport slides from a tied sixth to a seventh.

Former Bomber wrote:

henry david thoreau wrote:

I respect your decision but by i think it's a little biased by looking at your name.

switch Ithaca and TCNJ and you picked it exactly.

Nearly everyone posting has a bias toward one team over another. Even if that were not the case, my being an Ithaca Alum has nothing to do with my picking Ithaca for the 5th spot. They beat Plattsburgh at the Saratoga meet. TCNJ has not been running as well as Ithaca either. Ithaca's top 7 ran more impressive times at Saratoga than TCNJ ran at Paul Short...and Paul Short is a much faster course than Saratoga. A previous poster also made a good point about Tim Shea. He has been racing terribly lately, but if he comes around, the team will be that much deeper.

But if you are going to compare their performances, wouldn't you compare TCNJ's Paul Short times to Ithaca's Paul Short times. You are comparing different races on different courses at different points in the season, rather than races on the same course at the same point in the season. At Paul Short, TCNJ ran more impressive times. Obviously it is later in the season now, and Tim Shea may switch things up, but you need to make a more fair comparison.

And TCNJ was racing in the D-I race with tons of competition while Ithaca was racing in the D-III race at the front of the pack. The Ithaca guys who ran in the JV race even ran impressive times because they were in thick of things.

tcnj's 2-5 made a wrong turn about 3 miles into their race this weekend... Subtract around 40 seconds off of Bocchino's time and about 20 seconds for the rest.

If person A runs 15:30 for a 5k on the track in the spring and person B runs 15:00 for a 5k in a XC race in the fall, would you argue that person A is better? I think not.

TCNJ @ Lehigh - An easy course

Chris Guerriero, Sr 25:03

Tj Bocchino, So 25:25

Alex Yersak, Fr 25:46

Mike Fonder, Jr 26:41

Dennie Waite, So 26:50

Josh Krowicki, Sr 26:56

Brandon Rodkewitz, Jr 27:19

IC @ Saratoga - A not-so easy course

Hodge, Drew SR 25:48.59

Bell, Curt JR 25:51.84

Walker, Scott JR 26:17.00

Karkuff, Stefan SO 26:29.61

Palma, Anthony SO 26:36.00

Gustafson, Tyler SO 26:41.24

Craighead, Daniel FR 26:52.62

These two races were only a month apart. Are these results dispositive of Ithaca beating TCNJ? No. However, it is strong evidence that they can pull it off. Hence my aforementioned ranking.

kibitzer wrote:

DIII #10-ranked NYU men hammer #6 Carnegie at UAAs, Schneider gets the individual win:

http://www.go.emory.edu/Statistics/Current/MCC/Mens%20Results%20-%20UAA%20XC%20Champ.htm

The Violets only seemed to be six-deep in this race, but of course it only takes five...have to wonder whether they were protecting some injuries.

The Violet women did not fare as well--injuries may be a factor there, too:

http://www.go.emory.edu/Statistics/Current/WCC/Womens%20Results%20-%20UAA%20XC%20Champ.htm

What was the course like for this race? Times seem pretty slow, especially for U of R.

I get your point that Ithaca ran a good race, and I'm not saying that Ithaca can't beat TCNJ.

However, I think that one team running faster times on the same day on the same course is a more accurate indicator of who is better than different races on different courses at different points in the year.

I think that TCNJ will have to step it up at Regionals... as shown by Ithaca racing well at Saratoga... but in my opinion, I think they are capable of doing so.

Anyone? wrote:

What was the course like for this race? Times seem pretty slow, especially for U of R.

Hot and hilly (particularly in the second half of the race), I'm told.

More details probably in the "UAAs" thread.

I cant believe these people that are ranking Plattsburg with a random shot in the dark at 3rd. Third! come on. are you closing your eyes and tossing darts? Or are you the one with the big fridge in your basement full of their blood.

I think we can all agree that they are not beating SLU and if they beat Ithaca it with be Platt in 6th and IC in 7th on a bad race day for Ithaca. However, if you look at last years results, IC shouldn't have a bad day as their TOP 5 ALL pr'd by around 15-20 seconds at VCP in a huge end of the season push.

...Personally I think Ithaca will pull it out for 5th, hell all Tim Shea has to do is not improve from last year and they'll do it, let alone setting a PR. Aside from that I think that Drew is a lock for the natty and Curt Bell will be clipping on his heels as he has all season (think of Epstien and Stenuf sticking to him like glue last year to make the cut).

Lastly, it will be interesting to see what Ben Jackson can do for his team after what must have been a less then stellar summer training season from his times run thus far, they need that kid if they want it.

Veni Vidi Vici

Excuse me I meant TCNJ wherever I wrote SLU above. Sorry

The real question is:

Is it at all possible that any other team that races into 5th place at THE REG, besides TCNJ, will be invited to Nations? I want to hear some rational discussion.

I am up in the air about it. I personally believe the region deserves it but I don't know if we've done the racing as the "Atlantic Region" to prove that anyone in 5th is worthy.

If you use simple logic and say that TCNJ deserves it (as the committee might)... and TCNJ DOESN'T run bad they just get beat by __X___. Then wouldn't __X___ be a perfectly reasonable candidate for that 5th spot? However, That is not the same scenario if TCNJ falters. That is my opinion

Veni Vidi Vici

Verbal Kint wrote:

However, I think that one team running faster times on the same day on the same course is a more accurate indicator of who is better than different races on different courses at different points in the year.

Not necessarily. The degree of competition in Race A vs Race B is also a factor. TCNJ had the benefit of greater competition at Lehigh. Also, Ithaca had a few guys that ran the JV race that would have been in Ithaca's top 7.

Plattsburgh's times this weekend beats Ithaca's any race so far this season. If Ben Jackson ran where he did this weekend (3rd man), at Toga, then my friend, Plattsburgh would have beaten Ithaca at Saratoga...It's going to be a battle and I think the coaches see that, since they have them tied in the polls this week.

I don't think its a random shot in the dark for Plattsburgh to make NCAA's. They have a much better front runner, and on a day that they put it together, their 2-5 are better than Ithaca as well.