I think that a team should have multiple speed ratings on them before you can determine if they are under or over ranked. Honestly, teams approach seasons are so different that you can't really judge until the end of September or early October how a team is looking.
Yeah some Cali and Colorado teams don't really get going until post season and come out of nowhere to snatch a NXN spot.
That really was all I was trying to say is that they are underranked I know you can't compare courses especially in different states on different days just was an interesting stat since Jesuit OR isn't even in the top 20 of most rankings.
I think northwest > southwest. I am not sure where California stands yet. We will see at Woodbridge.
But despite all the hype for southwest this summer the team results at timpangos only shown 2 very strong utah teams (AF, Herriman) and lone peak is keeping up. All these team results for the Colorado teams at Liberty Bell look lackluster, nothing screams that they have any teams that are capable of a top 10 finish at nxn. Southwest looks like they only have 3 good teams this year.
Jesuit OR killed it today and it's possible they are just as good this year as they were last year. CDA looks incredibly strong too. We know Crater will be good. Boise looks to have potential too. Rocky Mountain barely makes the cut as a good team imo.
Sorry but this is wrong.
California and Southwest are both still a bit better than Northwest. Northwest is being overhyped on here because they have not raced big races. Big races tend to make teams look less good than they really are. Remember Jesuit LA? They would race their state meet and go 1-7, and they would have really good speed ratings, so we all thought they were the real deal last year.
For example, Woodbridge is coming up and is a huge race with close to 500 teams competing and 6 of the top 10 ranked teams competing. That race will make teams look less good than they really are because there are a lot of good teams competing. Same things happens at the regional races NXR northwest and NXR southwest.
The Utah teams did great at Timpangos Invitational. The teams in Colorado are also good. Liberty Bell was hotter than usual so team times don't look as good because o it. We will have a better idea of how good northwest is once they start racing big races. But right now they are being overhyped on here everyone needs to chill out until they race big races.
This is just one of those things that can only be proven with face-to-face competition. Overhyping teams that does good at small meets creates a lot of confusion.
I think northwest > southwest. I am not sure where California stands yet. We will see at Woodbridge.
But despite all the hype for southwest this summer the team results at timpangos only shown 2 very strong utah teams (AF, Herriman) and lone peak is keeping up. All these team results for the Colorado teams at Liberty Bell look lackluster, nothing screams that they have any teams that are capable of a top 10 finish at nxn. Southwest looks like they only have 3 good teams this year.
Jesuit OR killed it today and it's possible they are just as good this year as they were last year. CDA looks incredibly strong too. We know Crater will be good. Boise looks to have potential too. Rocky Mountain barely makes the cut as a good team imo.
Sorry but this is wrong.
California and Southwest are both still a bit better than Northwest. Northwest is being overhyped on here because they have not raced big races. Big races tend to make teams look less good than they really are. Remember Jesuit LA? They would race their state meet and go 1-7, and they would have really good speed ratings, so we all thought they were the real deal last year.
For example, Woodbridge is coming up and is a huge race with close to 500 teams competing and 6 of the top 10 ranked teams competing. That race will make teams look less good than they really are because there are a lot of good teams competing. Same things happens at the regional races NXR northwest and NXR southwest.
The Utah teams did great at Timpangos Invitational. The teams in Colorado are also good. Liberty Bell was hotter than usual so team times don't look as good because o it. We will have a better idea of how good northwest is once they start racing big races. But right now they are being overhyped on here everyone needs to chill out until they race big races.
This is just one of those things that can only be proven with face-to-face competition. Overhyping teams that does good at small meets creates a lot of confusion.
NW was unfairly screwed last year when Rocky didn’t get the at large bid. NW fans are trying to generate momentum on here about why the NW will deserve an at large bid. I don’t blame them, but I’d be surprised if LR chatter makes a difference.
California and Southwest are both still a bit better than Northwest. Northwest is being overhyped on here because they have not raced big races. Big races tend to make teams look less good than they really are. Remember Jesuit LA? They would race their state meet and go 1-7, and they would have really good speed ratings, so we all thought they were the real deal last year.
For example, Woodbridge is coming up and is a huge race with close to 500 teams competing and 6 of the top 10 ranked teams competing. That race will make teams look less good than they really are because there are a lot of good teams competing. Same things happens at the regional races NXR northwest and NXR southwest.
The Utah teams did great at Timpangos Invitational. The teams in Colorado are also good. Liberty Bell was hotter than usual so team times don't look as good because o it. We will have a better idea of how good northwest is once they start racing big races. But right now they are being overhyped on here everyone needs to chill out until they race big races.
This is just one of those things that can only be proven with face-to-face competition. Overhyping teams that does good at small meets creates a lot of confusion.
NW was unfairly screwed last year when Rocky didn’t get the at large bid. NW fans are trying to generate momentum on here about why the NW will deserve an at large bid. I don’t blame them, but I’d be surprised if LR chatter makes a difference.
Rocky didn't get screwed last year. They chose to not go to any big races outside of Firman, and the teams that they beat looked weak at NXR Southwest or, in the case of Great Oak, looked far better down the road and were battling illness at Firman. Rocky runners bill it as culture building to not go to the big meets with only a few varsity kids, but they took a gamble that they would be top 2 and they weren't.
They left it up to subjective criteria and there are a lot of reasons to point to why Rocky was left out. The point total at NXR would lead one to think the race was closer than it was. Jesuit had 101, Rocky 129, but actual place finishes were 4, 18, 26, 30, 84 for Jesuit and 8, 14, 24, 62, and 99 for Rocky. Actual finish totals are 162 vs. 207. It's close through 3 but Rocky got crushed at 4 and 5. In a meet with less individual runners than NXR (like NXN), that gap on 4 and 5 between those 2 schools would be far more apparent. Combine that with the fact that Rocky makes it well known that they train on that course and that it's their home course, one could easily infer that they may struggle even more against those schools on courses they don't know as well.
If you want to go to NXN, you need to beat good teams during the season if you don't get top 2 at your region. Rocky's single best victory was over Great Oak, and that got handwaved away. Their next best win was over over West Salem and Lincoln, neither of which were considered teams that had a shot of going to NXN. You certainly can't have your lone big signature win be 17 points over the team that took 10th at NXR SW (5th at the Utah State meet) and 18 points over the team that took 15th at NXR SW (7th at the Utah State meet) on your home course. There's no reason to think that Rocky wouldn't have been 5th at the Utah 6A meet based on those results.
Rocky needed to go race at a big invitational that wasn't in their backyard last year. They didn't, they didn't get top 2, and you can point to reasons why they didn't go. It's that simple.
NXN 2023 predictions. Danny Simmons is good but he has nothing on CLAY SHIVELY's foot speed. Though he did not attempt to qualify in 2022, he is the favorite going into 2023.
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NW was unfairly screwed last year when Rocky didn’t get the at large bid. NW fans are trying to generate momentum on here about why the NW will deserve an at large bid. I don’t blame them, but I’d be surprised if LR chatter makes a difference.
in the case of Great Oak, looked far better down the road and were battling illness at Firman.
I did some research into Rocky Mountain's win over Great Oak because it keeps getting brought up in this thread. It made me change my mind about who should have gotten the NXN bid. Rocky Mountain clearly deserved the bid over Granada 100%.
First thing I want to say is, If a team is capable of scoring under 200 points at NXN, they are truly one of the strongest xc teams in the nation (any team that are not capable of scoring under 200 points at NXN were never really national contenders and were probably just being over-hyped/overrated). Great Oak scored 193 points at NXN for 6th place so a legit win against Great Oak at Bob Firman last year is huge in retrospect.
I found this interesting interview of the Great Oak coach post season by Rich Gonzalez.
Our post-meet interview with Temecula XC Coach and Great Oak HS coach Tammy Draughon after her boys team placed sixth in the country at the 2022 Nike Cross N...
- The Great Oak kids were pretty disappointment by their 5th placement at Woodbridge last year but the coach says they ran just fine. There was nothing to worry about, it was a good race for them.
- Bob Furman was a really humbling experience for them. It made them question if they were "in it to win it", were they even capable of winning the state meet?
- Right after Bob Furman, they were getting all sorts of illnesses and sicknesses. They had all sorts of problems they had to work around.
- At the state meet, they executed the plan perfectly and beat San Clemente. Some people thought it was fluke.
- They went to NXN with a goal in mind to prove their win at the state meet wasn't a fluke. They wish they could of had a front runner as a low-stick at NXN.
To summarize: Rocky Mountain humbled one of the best teams in the nation and made them question if they were "in it to win it." Granada beat Great Oak when they were dealing with all sorts of "illnesses and sicknesses." Rocky Mountain's win over Great Oak was a legit win. Granada's win over Great Oak was not technically a legit win because they were sick. I think people were confused and thought Great Oak were sick at Bob Furman because of their bad performances after Bob Furman.
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Doug Soles, head cross country coach at Herriman High in Utah, discusses the top-ranked Mustangs competing in the 42nd Woodbridge Cross Country Classic presented by ASICS America and seeking a repeat in the Doug Speck boys sw...
"We are trying to figure out who we really are competing against at NXN, and I think between Woodbridge and we are going up to Bob Firman, between those two meets we will have a idea if it's just us or American Fork, or if we have some other teams that we have to worry about." - 4:12-4:30
So who exactly is down at Bob Firman that they think could be aiming for the NXN title?
"We are trying to figure out who we really are competing against at NXN, and I think between Woodbridge and we are going up to Bob Firman, between those two meets we will have a idea if it's just us or American Fork, or if we have some other teams that we have to worry about." - 4:12-4:30
So who exactly is down at Bob Firman that they think could be aiming for the NXN title?
Maybe Soles just means that running those 2 courses let’s him know how fast they are and what their chances are of winning NXN based on performances at both? Winning back to back major meets. Have you seen Herriman’s Junior boys? They will be the best team in the country next year too it seems.
"We are trying to figure out who we really are competing against at NXN, and I think between Woodbridge and we are going up to Bob Firman, between those two meets we will have a idea if it's just us or American Fork, or if we have some other teams that we have to worry about." - 4:12-4:30
So who exactly is down at Bob Firman that they think could be aiming for the NXN title?
Maybe Soles just means that running those 2 courses let’s him know how fast they are and what their chances are of winning NXN based on performances at both? Winning back to back major meets. Have you seen Herriman’s Junior boys? They will be the best team in the country next year too it seems.
my money is on that he is worried about Bozeman. Bozeman came out of nowhere in 2016 to win NXN over American Fork with a 100 point score. That team comes out of nowhere and nobody realizes how good they are until its too late. Last year Nathan Neil and Westin Brown had their first XC season and they were insanely good. Looking at bozeman's lineup this year, it is a possibility they are just as insane now as they were in 2016 but nobody knows
