NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

jesuit oregon looks very strong, looking like a top 10 potentially top 5 team this year

And they only have 1 senior and 2 juniors on varsity. In the JV race their top 5 was 1 senior, 1 freshman, and the rest were sophs

I think northwest > southwest. I am not sure where California stands yet. We will see at Woodbridge.

But despite all the hype for southwest this summer the team results at timpangos only shown 2 very strong utah teams (AF, Herriman) and lone peak is keeping up. All these team results for the Colorado teams at Liberty Bell look lackluster, nothing screams that they have any teams that are capable of a top 10 finish at nxn. Southwest looks like they only have 3 good teams this year.

Jesuit OR killed it today and it's possible they are just as good this year as they were last year. CDA looks incredibly strong too. We know Crater will be good. Boise looks to have potential too. Rocky Mountain barely makes the cut as a good team imo.

Liberty Bell didn’t have Niwot. They are deep this year and they haven’t run a real race this season yet.

unless Niwot is insanely good its northwest > southwest. CDA, Jesuit OR, and Crater are insanely good this year. This may be the strongest northwest has ever been.

I think Rocky is a top 10 regional team without Heemeyer. They might be top 5 including him.

As good as last year?
Well…let’s see.
Ash Creek 2022
Nenow - Missing
Clevenger - 15:17
Augustine - 15:54
Swanson - 16:01
Strub - 16:12
Wroblewski - 16:21
Strong - 16:28
Firth - 17:11

Ash Creek 2023
Swanson - 15:30
Wroblewski - 15:37
Williams - 15:49
Strub - 15:49
Fletcher - 15:50
Welsh - 16:14
Fleming - 16:20

In 2022, I don’t think Swanson and Augustine performed at their best at this race (based on how far behind Clevenger they were). So with that and without knowing the differences of temperature and conditions, even though the meet / course are the same, it’s kind of hard to compare the two teams.
But it does appear that this year they have more depth, and FWIW, they are a lot younger.

Agreed. A team the size of Rocky will likely always be in contention for NXN (Top 5 regionally). Tons of bodies training consistently year round will always provide a group that can compete at NXR.

Clay Shively 14:42

This guy...

nikeelite.runnerspace.com

Nike Elite - The Official home of the Nike Elite Program - News - Clay Shively - Get To Know - Nike Elite 2023

Clay ShivelyWichita Trinity Academy, Wichita, KS, c/o 2024AthleticNETClay Shively expectations entering the mile at the Arkansas Invitational on January 13, 2023 weren’t terribly high. He had thought about running the high sc...

Link:nikeelite.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php...

Course conditions this year were very similar to last with the exception being the temp. It was a lot cooler last year. This year it was close to 85 for the boys race. For as young as this team is they looked very poised today. Packed up very well. Swanson and Wroblewski ran side by side through 2 miles. The next three raced together the entire way. The pack did not really separate till after two miles.

Well, this could not have been any more wrong

runnerspace.com

DyeStat.com - Videos - Cody Lucas 1st Place Boys 5000m - Tiger-Griz Invitational 2023

Rocky Mountain's Cody Lucas ran 16:15.3 to finish first in the boys 5,000-meter race at the Tiger-Griz Invitational at Freeman Park in Idaho Falls, Idaho.

Link:www.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgrou...

Keep your eye out for Piper Messerly she is from Iowa, she is Carson Noeckers cousin. she is just a freshman this year but won the open last year as a 8th grader.

Looks like Herriman has their own XC channel!

That rumor comes from a Rocky runner getting on here and trying to troll. The Idaho XC thread is littered with their runners and possibly their coaches posting.

JESUIT
Caden Swanson. 12 Jesuit 15:30.0
Matthew Wroblewski 10 Jesuit 15:37.3
Kellen Williams. 10 Jesuit 15:49.2
Coen Strub. 11 Jesuit 15:49.7
Brayden Fletcher 10 Jesuit 15:50.9
Jackson Welsh. 10 Jesuit 16:14.6
Loland Fleming. 11 Jesuit 16:20.0
Ethan Strong. 12 Jesuit 17:04.6
Liam Donnelly. 10 Jesuit 17:11.6
Jayse BREFCZYNSKI. 9 Jesuit 17:41.9
(Also worth noting they had Eric Shumacher 12 Jesuit in 2nd place in JV race up to 4k when he stepped off the course?)

HERRIMAN
William Steadman. 12 Herriman 15:23.6
Tayshaun Ogomo. 11 Herriman 15:46.6
Jonah Tang. 11 Herriman 15:52.9
Jack Beckstrom. 12 Herriman 15:54.0
Micah Tang. 11 Herriman 16:02.6
Hyrum Wood. 12 Herriman 16:05.8
Noah Manwaring. 11 Herriman 16:06.7
Drew Marks. 12 Herriman 16:07.2
Max Hofheins. 12 Herriman 16:29.8
Nathan Wardle. 12 Herriman 17:00.2
Bryce Runnells. 10 Herriman 17:07.0

AMERICAN FORK
Daniel Simmons. 12 American Fork 15:07.7
Chase Pack. 12 American Fork 15:49.8
Kaden Evans. 11 American Fork 15:53.1
Ben Jaster. 12 American Fork 15:54.1
Maxwell Orr. 12 American Fork 15:58.1
Ben Bradshaw. 12 American Fork 16:04.0
Bridger Karren. 12 American Fork 16:38.3
Noah Nielson. 12 American Fork 16:51.5
Alex Williams. 11 American Fork 16:57.1
Ryker Bement. 11 American Fork 17:05.3
Tait Grundvig. 12 American Fork 17:14.8

you can't compare a course at altitude with a course at sea level. Speed ratings show Herriman/American Fork are much stronger than Jesuit OR. However, speed ratings are sometimes questionable in the west at some courses so we can't compare these teams yet.

Question. Is Jesuit under ranked based on this weekend. If so where do they land in the next ranking. Or is it to early to tell?

I think that a team should have multiple speed ratings on them before you can determine if they are under or over ranked. Honestly, teams approach seasons are so different that you can't really judge until the end of September or early October how a team is looking.